Civilisation has collapsed. The only rational way forward is to cover your dune buggy with spikes, craft some leather, S&M armour, and resort to cannibalism. Mohawks are optional.
https://youtu.be/QWmEgu1iP_E
Civilisation has collapsed. The only rational way forward is to cover your dune buggy with spikes, craft some leather, S&M armour, and resort to cannibalism. Mohawks are optional.
https://youtu.be/QWmEgu1iP_E
eclipse wrote:Seriously guys - the Isaac Arthur below is awesome! Here's the teaser headline to give a vibe of the humour:-
eclipse wrote:If we nuked ourselves today, in 100 years I personally think the population would be back to like 7 or 8 billion, and we'd have modern cities but without the car dependent suburbia (because there wouldn't be the easy oil to drive all that.) There's just so much we could scavenge so fast that we'd bounce back. Fast.
eclipse wrote:The nuclear winter scientists are retracting their work.
eclipse wrote:Even a large nuclear war couldn't really touch the likes of Mt Pinotubo.
C8 wrote:I cannot imagine anyone can predict how a nuclear mass bombing would affect the climate. There are way too many variables and things about the Earth's ecosystem that we still do not understand.
I also think that models will not affect the risk taking nature of nations- so it really doesn't matter.
eclipse wrote:What is the critical limit or challenge for an all renewable grid? (Of course meaning wind and solar - geothermal, hydro and others are already fairly maxed out.) Do you guys use the term VRE for "Variable Renewable Energy"?
I'm not saying I'm completely sold that solar and wind can do a 100% renewable grid - but I'm more open to it. (I'm still a fan of nukes.)
What is changing my mind is the the fact that wind and solar are now SO cheap you can overbuild them for winter. If you're good for winter with all that overbuild, then storage is less of an issue. Vox discusses a study which says storage costs could go as high as $150 / kwh installed capacity cost and still be economic because you're using so little of it. ($150 also requires a few smart-grid tricks like demand-shifting flexible stuff like industrial cooling processes etc.)
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
eclipse wrote:What is changing my mind is the the fact that wind and solar are now SO cheap
C8 wrote:eclipse wrote:What is changing my mind is the the fact that wind and solar are now SO cheap
But is that b/c of govt. subsidies? If so, then it won't scale up well worldwide
Energy Transition Goals At Risk As EU May Label Lithium As Toxic* European Commission could move to put lithium on a list of toxic substances.
* This piece of regulation could drive up prices across the battery supply chain.
* Should the European Commission take this decision, it may undermine the EU’s energy security.
A potential European Commission (EC) act to classify lithium as a Category 1A reproductive toxin in this year’s fourth quarter could undermine the European Union (EU)’s attempt to create and support a domestic battery materials supply chain. The EU currently relies heavily on imports of lithium to supply its nascent electric vehicle (EV) production sector and the classification may increase its reliance on other regions, at a time when the union is focused on energy security and reducing emissions. The European Chemicals Agency (ECHA)’s Risk Assessment Committee (RAC) at the end of 2021 published its opinion that it agreed with French proposals to classify three lithium salts as Category 1A reproductive toxicants.
“The EU is a global regulatory powerhouse, so any decision to classify lithium as Category 1A toxicant in the world’s largest single market will be keenly studied by regulators elsewhere. Industry hates regulatory uncertainty, so the longer it takes for a ruling, the more it will delay existing and significant investment decisions. This is more than a technicality; the impact could be far-ranging and wide.”
Implications for EV production
A drawn-out permitting process for new mining operations in Europe has already been highlighted at recent industry events as one of the main barriers to new mining projects ramping up quickly. Rystad Energy is aware of at least one new proposed lithium hydroxide processing operation that is now withholding its investment decision pending the outcome of the EC’s final resolution.
It varies by region. Globally renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels without subsidies because of falling renewable costs and rising fossil fuel costs. But this is not the case in every single country. For example, Southeast Asia has long had substantial fossil fuel subsidies that undermined a large scale renewable transition there. Then there is the intermittency issue that becomes more and more problematic as renewables increase their grid penetration. This problem is not properly captured in current cost estimations so they must be taken with a grain of salt.C8 wrote:But is that b/c of govt. subsidies? If so, then it won't scale up well worldwide
It’s now cheaper to switch from coal to renewables instead of coal to gas, report shows* It is now cheaper to switch from coal to clean energy, compared to switching from coal to gas. That’s thanks to the falling cost of renewables and battery storage, coupled with the rising volatility of gas prices.
Record-high coal and gas prices have been pushing prices higher for consumers and businesses alike, but there could be a silver lining. It is now cheaper to switch from coal to clean energy, compared to switching from coal to gas — thanks to the falling cost of renewables and battery storage, coupled with the rising volatility of gas prices. “The carbon price needed to incentivize the switch from coal generation to renewable energy for storage has dipped to a negative price. So essentially that means that you can actually switch to renewables at a cost saving.”
The report claims that the global average cost of switching from coal to renewable energy has plunged by 99% since 2010, compared to switching from coal to gas. The company measured the carbon price level it takes to motivate 25 countries to switch fuels, from existing coal to renewables such as new onshore wind or solar photovoltaics plus battery.
The coal-to-clean carbon price varies across regions, and the picture isn’t “as rosy” in Asia compared to the European Union due to differences in market structure and fuel price mechanisms. Southeast Asian countries like Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam still face a relatively high cost of transitioning directly to renewables from coal. According to Tao, these countries have traditionally lagged in the renewable energy transition due to fossil fuel subsidies for domestic producers of coal and gas.
“Banks are increasingly finding it risky to lend to these fossil fuel assets in the concern that they will become stranded assets in the near term down the road due to the global energy transition. That’s going to mean that there’s going to be limited upstream supply that’s going to come online, and we are going to see increasingly tight gas markets and fossil fuel markets in general that will be prone to demand and supply shocks.”
Tesla May Adopt New Battery Tech To Prevent Vehicle Fires And Save LivesTesla might be making a switch in its battery chemistry to a type that is less susceptible to combustion after sustaining damage.
One of the most appealing things about LFP (lithium ferrous phosphate) versus the current NCA type is that the battery pack has a much lower risk of fire or explosion, even when damaged in a collision. LFP batteries are known to have less energy density than the current NCA type, which might be seen as a drawback, however, the standard range models have enough room to use a larger battery pack and that might be the solution.
LFP also costs less and has a longer life, withstanding many more charge/discharge cycles than NCA. For safety-conscious shoppers, an LFP battery pack is also less likely to catch fire.
Tesla is already using cobalt-free LFP batteries in half of its new cars producedTesla confirmed that nearly half of all its vehicles produced last quarter are already using cobalt-free iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries. Iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which don’t use nickel or cobalt, are traditionally cheaper and safer, but they offer less energy density, which means less efficient and shorter range for electric vehicles. However, they have improved enough recently that it now makes sense to use cobalt-free batteries in lower-end and shorter-range vehicles.
Last year, Tesla also announced it is “shifting to Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) battery chemistry globally” for “standard range vehicles.”
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