Democracies have great difficulty planning populations and economies- the future is probably some form of authoritarian govt. that pretends to be a democracy.
Newfie wrote:VT,
That is all well and good and it serves the investors.
OTOH it does not work so well for the over all well being of the society and culture.
Back to my CC example, or resource depletion (peal oil), or having reserve medical capacity in case of whatever,demographis, or education, etc.
This is the area where government needs to be operating, and it seems none are competent.
Newfie wrote:FULL collapse is both debatable and unknowable.
agreed.IMHO SOME level of collapse is inevitable.
Some level of collapse has happened somewhere on the planet over and over again for millennium. It is total collapse they are scaring us with at present.Within in 100 to 200 years3
It matters where in that time frame it hits. Next summer would not be good for me. LOL!Nah we can probably support(sustain) five billion indefinitely.
Sub 3billion is a sure thing.Only as the result of a world wide nuclear conflict which is hopefully unlikely.Sub 1 billion likely.Extinction? Possible but way too far away to predict.
Newfie wrote:
Italy has been relying on immigrants as has the USA. But high quality immigrants are hard to come by and will become rare competition rises.
It makes a big difference what immigration policy is. Canada used to require much education to enter. The US is letting the poorest walk across- which may not lead to high quality. My guess is that this will lead to a large % of future welfare cases. The US labor force participation rate is down to historic lows at @ 60%. We could see the day when less than half are working to support the other half. We saw that, during lockdowns, very few people in out economy are truly "essential" maybe less than 20%. FF and automation have led to the world where people are living off of "the machine".
Bottom line; a LOT of this was very predictable from One Child to NordStream. Yet all the high level brainiacs seem to have been caught flatfooted, again.
For China and Japan- they need to let their population's slide down to a level closer to what they can support with native food production ability. They are both in a scary dependence on world trade to feed their people.
Humans planning ability is unimpressive to say the least.
So true, so true. Much of what we call planning is just a sophisticated form of wishful thinking (ex; we will all be in EV's someday) The big mistake of planning is that it assumes many things will remain static while the plan is executed- but there are thousands of moving parts and most of these are invisible to the planners.
Once again- great post
I have recently seen projections that by 2050 China’s population will have decreased by 900 million to under 400 million, simply through demographic collapse brought on by the One Child policy, internal (rural>apartment) migration, and knock on effects, ignoring CC and resource depletion, etc. Western civilizations have similar forces at work.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... an-2021-08
The truth is that China’s population in 2020 probably amounted to about 1.28 billion – some 130 million fewer people than reported. That makes India, not China, the world’s most populous country.
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