Peak_Yeast wrote:Amateur. The LTG model said we had XX barrels of oil in the planetary totality that went into being developed as part of their overall resources. And based on that number, contained in Table 1 I believe, we ran out of oil in the mid-1990's.
So the Bible says we ran out of oil a decade or so before this website was born to discuss a peak oil in the century AFTER LTG said we had already run out.
Sounds like you never actually bothered to read LTG or perhaps you chose to ignore what they wrote?
Sounds like you should be careful saying that to folks who make such statements based on research? A demonstration perhaps, for the obviously uninformed on LTG?
LTG copy hereYou can read, right? Page 58, Petroleum is about half way down. 459X10^9 barrels. Do you need a math course in the notation? Fine...I'll do it for you... 459 X 1000000000 = 459 billion barrels. A billion being 1,000,000,000 which is the 10^9 thingy. As usual, mousepad can correct any errors I make.
EIA international production of all sorts of stuff history. Click on "Petroleum and Other Liquids". Do I need to explain what "click" means?
Click on "Annual Petroleum Liquids and Other Production". About 5 lines down you'll see 'Crude Oil Including Lease Condensate". That is the data series you want. Not that pesky all liquids nonsense that Art has recently pretended is oil production so he can tilt at windmills. Under "DownLoad Options" I choose "Export CSV". You can choose anything you'd like of course. In my file, Line 7 is the Crude Oil and Lease Condensate line. Conveniently, it starts in 1973, the year after the publication of the LTG copy I sent you too. Now...and this is the hard part....begin adding up all the numbers from 1973 to the point where they are greater than 459 billion barrels. Difficult, I know, there being all those zeros, and needing to convert mmbbl/d to billion bbl/ year, you might not even know how many days are in the year for all I know, so shoddy was your comment pretending I hadn't already done this!
459 billion barrels were gone somewhere between 1994 and 1995. Can you BELIEVE this? LTG managed to keep the world from collapsing without any oil after 1995? HOW COULD THIS BE!!!
Can't say I know, or care, but I do know, and care, that I apparently knew this very interesting, and LTG wrecking detail, and halfwits pretending I didn't demonstrated why they are halfwits.
Oh..and a hint...go check out bauxite, natural gas, and a few other goodies if you really want to amaze others like yourself that think LTG is doing a bang-up job of telling its avid readers anything other than MAN are we humans clever, running the world without oil and natural gas and aluminum and stuff.
peakyeast wrote:Why do you think there are scenarios with double the resources, with endless resources? You talk about LTG like it is ONE scenario with one idea on the resources.
Double the resources? And for oil that would be like 918 billion barrels. We ran out of that oil in 2018. And OF COURSE there are endless resources...maybe these folks knew that they couldn't talk about oil amounts any better than peak oilers could?
In either case, LTG is a model. It has balanced equations against each other that obviously don't even need oil to keep the wheels on the bus (forget about natural gas and aluminum and such, right?) and then people who don't know any of this pretend that a scenario that says the stupidest thing in the world (ENDLESS RESOURCES FOREVER!!!) proves that its equations are just a race to...DOOOOOOOOOM!!!
Sort of like peak oil, except the math and estimates and everything are concealed from folks like you who didn't even apparently know that A) the world didn't run out of oil in 1995, and B) it didn't run out of oil in 2013 either and C) endless resources are a fairy tale and don't save bad models and D) that some folks already knew this and E) GIGO is a thing.
peakyeast wrote:With a misrepresentation of LTG like this - I wonder how many other things you choose to be dishonest about.
Let me know when that infinite oil is found (or natural gas or bauxite and all the other items you apparently aren't aware of either), and in the meantime pretend I didn't already know all of this when I did, and you didn't even know the most basic issue, that LTG claims in its base case that after the world ran out of crude oil in 1995....THE MODEL KEPT CHUGGING RIGHT ALONG HAPPY AS A PIG IN FECAL MATTER! At what point do you think the model SHOULD have noticed? When it ran out of oil and natural gas? And those and then...aluminum? Coal? Steel? Does LTG ever mention how when all this happened all these years ago we managed not to become Amish? It being a resource bible and all...not your claim but some other dim bulb who obviously doesn't know any of this either, does this sound like a Bible of resources to you? Not that you would know, as apparently you fell for ENDLESS RESOURCES as an excuse to drool over GIGO results without even knowing that is what had happened.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"