ralfy wrote:Peak oil refers to diminishing returns, and also takes place for mining: increasing energy needed to obtain decreasing amounts of resources and of lower quality. The reason are a limited biosphere and gravity.
That's basically it. This issue is not debatable.
Newfie wrote:Peak Oil as defined by this site:
Peak oil theory states: that any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output as seen in the graph to the left.
Interesting times.
... it is fascinating to me how many people either ignore/deny these self-evident aspects of our predicament, or delve into magical thinking to bargain with or rationalise them away.
It also seems to me that resource depletion, especially of one of our most significantly important resources such as fossil fuels, is, as Erik Michaels argues, a symptom predicament of our overarching predicament of ecological overshoot.
And it is a lack of fully understanding this and appreciating what this overshoot entails and means, that has humanity in the crosshairs of the inevitable ‘collapse’ that accompanies it. No amount of denial, anger, and/or bargaining can change this. But homo sapiens being who they are will try.
I think that the ‘best’ we might accomplish is to create some mitigations that ‘soften’ the consequences for some.
Instead, however, we have a sociopathic elite (and a lot of snake oil salesmen) who are doubling/tripling down on the very processes that have put us in this bind: pursuit of the infinite growth chalice (i.e., economic and population growth) and encouraging widespread adoption of complex technologies (i.e., non-renewable, renewable energy-harvesting technologies).
And rather than safely decommissioning some of our most lethal and dangerous complexities (such as nuclear power plants and their radioactive wastes, chemical production and storage facilities, biosafety labs and their dangerous pathogens), whose control of we will lose as net surplus energy dwindles and eventually reaches zero, we are seeing a push to expand these. Rather than stop the degradation of our biosphere (particularly through our mineral extraction and production processes), and whose integrity is perhaps THE most important aspect of all species’ survival, we are witnessing a HUGE push to expand these in an attempt to ‘replace’ fossil fuels.
The vast majority of us just can’t seem to face up to the inconvenient idea that we are in it waist deep and sinking rather quickly. And instead of considering the notion that we stop digging out the bottom out of the hole we have fallen into, we flail and thrash against the inevitability of it all chasing processes that are making the predicament even worse and guaranteeing a future that is the opposite of the growth and expansion we have experienced the past number of centuries/millennia — that’s if any of us survive at all given the destruction we have wrought upon our world because of our overshoot.
It’s a mad, mad, mad world!
theluckycountry wrote:I came across an interesting site that "basically" discusses the collapse of civilization. It's based out of the "Olduvai theory", a data-based schema put forward around 2000 that states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal 100 years. The participants are clearly on the side of De-Growth, as is evidenced by this brief Contemplation off one of the pages.
Newfie wrote:While I could quibble with some details I mostly agree with this above analysis.
We have well and truly screwed ourselves, and continue to do so.
Peak_Yeast wrote:I have to say I disagree with the notion that peak oil was in 2018.
Peak_Yeast wrote:What peak 2018 might be is ALL inputs peak - including desperate last measures and double counting biofuels.
Peak_Yeast wrote:It was way before - some people are just redefining that peak oil was about. It was about the conventional oil. Not BOe, not including burning your old wig for a little heat either.
Peak_Yeast wrote:This is IEA: Conventional crude oil production 2010, 2020, 2021: 66.8 , 59.7 , 60.1
Pretty clear peak was reached - in 2005 IIRC.
AdamB wrote:Newfie wrote:While I could quibble with some details I mostly agree with this above analysis.
We have well and truly screwed ourselves, and continue to do so.
You are aware that Richard "I'm not really a rascist even though I let them publish my work" Duncan was also used during the early 20th century peak oil claims, using his "theory" to proclaim that permanent rolling black outs would happen in North America by 2008 because...wait for it....lack of natural gas in the region?
Or were you not around for that part of "the good ol' days"? Needless to say, 2008 came and went even before TOD announced the 4th peak oil claim of the century and Richard seemed to fade away quite quickly after that.
Oh yeah, and the author pimping his books on the site? He LOVED Mike Ruppert, him being such a fine upstanding and credible doomer and all. When you see that one coming you know what you are about to get, and from someone who wouldn't know a qualified source from a hole in their head.
Peak_Yeast wrote:I have to say I disagree with the notion that peak oil was in 2018. What peak 2018 might be is ALL inputs peak - including desperate last measures and double counting biofuels.
Newfie wrote:That is the failure of the growth paradigm. Worldwide/human wide as near as I can tell.
And that is the struggle we have before us: how to come up with a new paradigm that is sustainable while still allowing us to enlarge our understanding/knowledge.
One Year Ago:
Sri Lanka’s economy has “completely collapsed,” Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said Wednesday, as the crisis-hit nation faces an increasingly dire situation that has left millions struggling with fuel, electricity and food shortages.
“Our economy has faced a complete collapse,” Wickremesinghe told Sri Lanka’s Parliament, adding the government was seeking help from its global partners and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize the economy.
But Wickremesinghe warned the island nation of 22 million was “facing a far more serious situation” beyond the shortages. Sri Lanka is in the midst of its worst financial crisis in seven decades, after its foreign exchange reserves plummeted to record lows, with dollars running out to pay for essential imports including food, medicine and fuel.
COLOMBO, June 23 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka is set to start bartering tea to Iran next month in lieu of $250 million owed for oil, a Sri Lankan official told Reuters on Friday, as the crisis-hit country tries to lift sales to a key market and protect its forex reserves.
Newfie wrote:While I could quibble with some details I mostly agree with this above analysis.
We have well and truly screwed ourselves, and continue to do so.
Newfie wrote:What on Earth are you going on about?
What doesany of that have to do with my post?
theluckycountry wrote: They add in natural gas liquids, they are hydrocarbons but they don't have anything like the heat content or energy content of crude oil.
AdamB wrote:Newfie wrote:While I could quibble with some details I mostly agree with this above analysis.
We have well and truly screwed ourselves, and continue to do so.Newfie wrote:What on Earth are you going on about?
What doesany of that have to do with my post?
Duncan didn't do analysis, his theory has been used before and found more than wanting, and has little to nothing to do with what and how we humans are screwing ourselves.
I was just asking if you were aware of any of this from his work, based on when you became peak oily interested. Folks recycling it, again, are counting on everyone having forgotten how poorly the idea went the first couple of times it was recycled.
theluckycountry wrote:Newfie wrote:That is the failure of the growth paradigm. Worldwide/human wide as near as I can tell.
And that is the struggle we have before us: how to come up with a new paradigm that is sustainable while still allowing us to enlarge our understanding/knowledge.
I'm pretty confidant the new paradigm is with us now. Places like Sri Lanka are experiencing it, Egypt went through it slowly a decade or two ago, China is facing it now. What it boils down to is losing access to petroleum products because you can't raise anymore debt to buy them. I know it sounds odd but there it is. Not everyone loses out in a given nation, the wealthy always have access, and in some nations, like the US, the process is slow whereby the poorer elements of society lose it first then it moves up through the classes.
One Year Ago:
Sri Lanka’s economy has “completely collapsed,” Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said Wednesday, as the crisis-hit nation faces an increasingly dire situation that has left millions struggling with fuel, electricity and food shortages.
“Our economy has faced a complete collapse,” Wickremesinghe told Sri Lanka’s Parliament, adding the government was seeking help from its global partners and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize the economy.
But Wickremesinghe warned the island nation of 22 million was “facing a far more serious situation” beyond the shortages. Sri Lanka is in the midst of its worst financial crisis in seven decades, after its foreign exchange reserves plummeted to record lows, with dollars running out to pay for essential imports including food, medicine and fuel.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/23/asia ... index.html
There is more to the Sri Lankan story but the simple fact is they were doing ok until the value of their exports, Textiles and base foods, fell, and then it was off to the races. Anyone can grow fish but you need oil to do it efficiently and to get it to market and run a modern economy.
BRICS to the rescue?
Sri Lanka set to start tea-for-oil barter with Iran next monthCOLOMBO, June 23 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka is set to start bartering tea to Iran next month in lieu of $250 million owed for oil, a Sri Lankan official told Reuters on Friday, as the crisis-hit country tries to lift sales to a key market and protect its forex reserves.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 023-06-23/
Most all nations like on debt now don't they. A few don't, Saudi Arabia's is negligable and Russia's too. Both big oil exporters. So the paradigm shift is from Wealth to Abject poverty. Take oil out of the equation and you're back to the nineteen hundreds I'm afraid.
Newfie wrote:I have no interest in Duncan. He plays no role in my thinking or the conversation we were having about degrowth.
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