[Newfie]

Peak Oil as defined by this site:

Peak oil theory states: that any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output as seen in the graph to the left.

[theluckycountry]

Peak oil refers to diminishing returns, and also takes place for mining: increasing energy needed to obtain decreasing amounts of resources and of lower quality. The reason are a limited biosphere and gravity.

That's basically it. This issue is not debatable.

And once you fully embrace that reality you no longer look to the wizards of Tech to ensure your future. You take matters into your own hands and plan your future according to the realities of resource depletion. I have many plans for the future and they all involve physical tangible things rather than the digital based promises that the peoples' of the Western world seem to trust for their future happiness and security.

The Biosphere resources and the remaining resources in the ground are enormous, but they are not enough to satisfy the claims 7 billion+ people are counting on cashing in on in the future. Those resources will be repriced and we are seeing that today with food inflation and basic building material and manufacturing inflation.

[AdamB]

Peak Oil as defined by this site:

Peak oil theory states: that any finite resource, (including oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output as seen in the graph to the left.

Good thing there is no diminishing returns mentioned in our definition then either.

[Newfie]

I have mentioned before how China is on the verg of a devrowth spurt and that they have been hiding the problem, intentionally or not, in their official census data.

It seems that local governments get stipends based upon claimed population and that is easy to fudge. Others look at the the number of children entering school, and that is very different. It seems now the census numbers have been adjusted downward but not all the way. So there is some official recognition of the problem.

The below short video does a better explosion and shows 3 sets of demographic data.
Old data
New data
Adjusted by school population data

https://youtu.be/kBMSZ7v3KxQ

Japan has been at the forefront of population degrowth and have been adjusting by offshoreing manufacturing. Eventually that will run out and they will have bigger troubles ahead.

China has a multitude of problems; the inverted population pyramid, Zeno phobia (like Japan), no good places to off shore labor, HUGE debt, and a housing crisis.

They MAY try to solve some of their problems by territorial acquisition but only have a limited time to do so, like a decade.

Interesting times.

[jato0072]

Interesting times.

Indeed... and we are just getting warmed up.

[theluckycountry]

I came across an interesting site that "basically" discusses the collapse of civilization. It's based out of the "Olduvai theory", a data-based schema put forward around 2000 that states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal 100 years. The participants are clearly on the side of De-Growth, as is evidenced by this brief Contemplation off one of the pages.

... it is fascinating to me how many people either ignore/deny these self-evident aspects of our predicament, or delve into magical thinking to bargain with or rationalise them away.

It also seems to me that resource depletion, especially of one of our most significantly important resources such as fossil fuels, is, as Erik Michaels argues, a symptom predicament of our overarching predicament of ecological overshoot.

And it is a lack of fully understanding this and appreciating what this overshoot entails and means, that has humanity in the crosshairs of the inevitable ‘collapse’ that accompanies it. No amount of denial, anger, and/or bargaining can change this. But homo sapiens being who they are will try.

I think that the ‘best’ we might accomplish is to create some mitigations that ‘soften’ the consequences for some.

Instead, however, we have a sociopathic elite (and a lot of snake oil salesmen) who are doubling/tripling down on the very processes that have put us in this bind: pursuit of the infinite growth chalice (i.e., economic and population growth) and encouraging widespread adoption of complex technologies (i.e., non-renewable, renewable energy-harvesting technologies).

And rather than safely decommissioning some of our most lethal and dangerous complexities (such as nuclear power plants and their radioactive wastes, chemical production and storage facilities, biosafety labs and their dangerous pathogens), whose control of we will lose as net surplus energy dwindles and eventually reaches zero, we are seeing a push to expand these. Rather than stop the degradation of our biosphere (particularly through our mineral extraction and production processes), and whose integrity is perhaps THE most important aspect of all species’ survival, we are witnessing a HUGE push to expand these in an attempt to ‘replace’ fossil fuels.

The vast majority of us just can’t seem to face up to the inconvenient idea that we are in it waist deep and sinking rather quickly. And instead of considering the notion that we stop digging out the bottom out of the hole we have fallen into, we flail and thrash against the inevitability of it all chasing processes that are making the predicament even worse and guaranteeing a future that is the opposite of the growth and expansion we have experienced the past number of centuries/millennia — that’s if any of us survive at all given the destruction we have wrought upon our world because of our overshoot.

It’s a mad, mad, mad world!

https://olduvai.ca/

[Newfie]

While I could quibble with some details I mostly agree with this above analysis.

We have well and truly screwed ourselves, and continue to do so.

[yellowcanoe]

I came across an interesting site that "basically" discusses the collapse of civilization. It's based out of the "Olduvai theory", a data-based schema put forward around 2000 that states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal 100 years. The participants are clearly on the side of De-Growth, as is evidenced by this brief Contemplation off one of the pages.

It is quite appropriate that the author behind this site is Canadian. As economic growth in Canada has stalled the government is going all out to maintain growth via mass immigration. Business investment in Canada is actually on the decline so our growth is mainly in the form of real estate (those millions of newcomers need a place to live) and personal consumption. We just burn through resources at a faster rate without actually creating anything of value from them.

[Newfie]

That is the failure of the growth paradigm. Worldwide/human wide as near as I can tell.

And that is the struggle we have before us: how to come up with a new paradigm that is sustainable while still allowing us to enlarge our understanding/knowledge.

[AdamB]

While I could quibble with some details I mostly agree with this above analysis.
We have well and truly screwed ourselves, and continue to do so.

You are aware that Richard "I'm not really a rascist even though I let them publish my work" Duncan was also used during the early 20th century peak oil claims, using his "theory" to proclaim that permanent rolling black outs would happen in North America by 2008 because...wait for it....lack of natural gas in the region?

Or were you not around for that part of "the good ol' days"? Needless to say, 2008 came and went even before TOD announced the 4th peak oil claim of the century and Richard seemed to fade away quite quickly after that.

Oh yeah, and the author pimping his books on the site? He LOVED Mike Ruppert, him being such a fine upstanding and credible doomer and all. When you see that one coming you know what you are about to get, and from someone who wouldn't know a qualified source from a hole in their head.

[Peak_Yeast]

I have to say I disagree with the notion that peak oil was in 2018. What peak 2018 might be is ALL inputs peak - including desperate last measures and double counting biofuels.

It was way before - some people are just redefining that peak oil was about. It was about the conventional oil. Not BOe, not including burning your old wig for a little heat either.

This is IEA: Conventional crude oil production 2010, 2020, 2021: 66.8 , 59.7 , 60.1

Pretty clear peak was reached - in 2005 IIRC.

Now we are burning what was considered garbage. Some people thought that this proved previous forecasts unreliable - but when considering the time-frame and the unknowns were very precise. The same people will probably claim we found new resources once we start tearing up the roads to burn the asphalt. A hitherto unknown vast resource !

[AdamB]

I have to say I disagree with the notion that peak oil was in 2018.

Well, good for you! It is the 6th claimed or occurred this century, it is not hard to be suspicious just based on precedence.

What peak 2018 might be is ALL inputs peak - including desperate last measures and double counting biofuels.

No, it is according to EIA international statics, crude oil and lease condensate only. I realize some folks are all excited about "liquids" and whatnot, but the EIA tracks the correct "oil" and they say average daily production of it was just slightly higher in 2018 than 2019.

It was way before - some people are just redefining that peak oil was about. It was about the conventional oil. Not BOe, not including burning your old wig for a little heat either.

I agree that there are some weird categories out there, but fortunately the EIA calculates crude oil and lease condensate as that, and has some numbers on the other stuff if you are interested.

As far as "conventional" oil, well, here is a list of all global oil benchmarks, and you'll notice that "conventional" isn't listed. Perhaps you know which of these oils have been relabelled and we can figure it out from there?

This is IEA: Conventional crude oil production 2010, 2020, 2021: 66.8 , 59.7 , 60.1
Pretty clear peak was reached - in 2005 IIRC.

Reference please. Certainly EIA data says 2018, but if the IEA lists so much less oil now than then, perhaps they have a list of which global benchmarks they have decided not to count?

In the past folks didn't make up interesting delineations of oils, I always presumed it was because they don't realize that oils are graded by things like gravity, impurities, color, etc etc, so that refineries know what they are buying and what they need to mix with them to manufacture the products that are most valuable and compatible with their equipment. Making up new oil types also happened when the first couple of peak oils came and went earlier this century. Some people even say "the peak in easy oil", whatever the hell that means. For the record, "easy oil" ended around 1901 or so, so that doesn't work for calling peak oils either. Certainly Hubbert never predicted peak "conventional" oil or "easy" oil, and he was the master with real live industry science experience, compared to the wanna be's of the internet nowadays. Who might not even know which of those benchmarks are "conventional", or....whatever.

[Newfie]

While I could quibble with some details I mostly agree with this above analysis.
We have well and truly screwed ourselves, and continue to do so.

You are aware that Richard "I'm not really a rascist even though I let them publish my work" Duncan was also used during the early 20th century peak oil claims, using his "theory" to proclaim that permanent rolling black outs would happen in North America by 2008 because...wait for it....lack of natural gas in the region?

Or were you not around for that part of "the good ol' days"? Needless to say, 2008 came and went even before TOD announced the 4th peak oil claim of the century and Richard seemed to fade away quite quickly after that.

Oh yeah, and the author pimping his books on the site? He LOVED Mike Ruppert, him being such a fine upstanding and credible doomer and all. When you see that one coming you know what you are about to get, and from someone who wouldn't know a qualified source from a hole in their head.

What on Earth are you going on about?

What doesany of that have to do with my post?

[theluckycountry]

I have to say I disagree with the notion that peak oil was in 2018. What peak 2018 might be is ALL inputs peak - including desperate last measures and double counting biofuels.

You are quite right. When you look at the details it's all a fudge. They add in natural gas liquids, they are hydrocarbons but they don't have anything like the heat content or energy content of crude oil. They add in refinery gains, the volumetric expansion. According to Art Berman, 40% of what the IEA count as "oil" today isn't oil at all. They add asphalt, and ethane from natural gas, and ethane isn't used as a fuel, it's used to make plastic bags. That's where the billions of bags on the supermarket shelves come from, all the packing and whatnot used for packing mass produced products. We passed peak oil years ago.

Then idiots like Adam come along and say we're not past peak oil because all he does is watch TV and listen to the lies of the IEA. An idiot with two worthless old tesla's in his garage lol. I'll take the word of a petroleum expert like Berman over an Adam any day of the week.

[theluckycountry]

That is the failure of the growth paradigm. Worldwide/human wide as near as I can tell.

And that is the struggle we have before us: how to come up with a new paradigm that is sustainable while still allowing us to enlarge our understanding/knowledge.

I'm pretty confidant the new paradigm is with us now. Places like Sri Lanka are experiencing it, Egypt went through it slowly a decade or two ago, China is facing it now. What it boils down to is losing access to petroleum products because you can't raise anymore debt to buy them. I know it sounds odd but there it is. Not everyone loses out in a given nation, the wealthy always have access, and in some nations, like the US, the process is slow whereby the poorer elements of society lose it first then it moves up through the classes.

One Year Ago:
Sri Lanka’s economy has “completely collapsed,” Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said Wednesday, as the crisis-hit nation faces an increasingly dire situation that has left millions struggling with fuel, electricity and food shortages.

“Our economy has faced a complete collapse,” Wickremesinghe told Sri Lanka’s Parliament, adding the government was seeking help from its global partners and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize the economy.

But Wickremesinghe warned the island nation of 22 million was “facing a far more serious situation” beyond the shortages. Sri Lanka is in the midst of its worst financial crisis in seven decades, after its foreign exchange reserves plummeted to record lows, with dollars running out to pay for essential imports including food, medicine and fuel.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/23/asia ... index.html

There is more to the Sri Lankan story but the simple fact is they were doing ok until the value of their exports, Textiles and base foods, fell, and then it was off to the races. Anyone can grow fish but you need oil to do it efficiently and to get it to market and run a modern economy.

BRICS to the rescue?

Sri Lanka set to start tea-for-oil barter with Iran next month

COLOMBO, June 23 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka is set to start bartering tea to Iran next month in lieu of $250 million owed for oil, a Sri Lankan official told Reuters on Friday, as the crisis-hit country tries to lift sales to a key market and protect its forex reserves.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 023-06-23/


Most all nations like on debt now don't they. A few don't, Saudi Arabia's is negligable and Russia's too. Both big oil exporters. So the paradigm shift is from Wealth to Abject poverty. Take oil out of the equation and you're back to the nineteen hundreds I'm afraid.

[AdamB]

While I could quibble with some details I mostly agree with this above analysis.
We have well and truly screwed ourselves, and continue to do so.

What on Earth are you going on about?
What doesany of that have to do with my post?

Duncan didn't do analysis, his theory has been used before and found more than wanting, and has little to nothing to do with what and how we humans are screwing ourselves.

I was just asking if you were aware of any of this from his work, based on when you became peak oily interested. Folks recycling it, again, are counting on everyone having forgotten how poorly the idea went the first couple of times it was recycled.

[AdamB]

They add in natural gas liquids, they are hydrocarbons but they don't have anything like the heat content or energy content of crude oil.

Link to EIA international oil data Crude oil and lease condensate 5th line down from top.

For those who don't know how to use google, and want to pretend that folks aren't tracking crude oil and lease condensate for those who can.

[Newfie]

While I could quibble with some details I mostly agree with this above analysis.
We have well and truly screwed ourselves, and continue to do so.

What on Earth are you going on about?
What doesany of that have to do with my post?

Duncan didn't do analysis, his theory has been used before and found more than wanting, and has little to nothing to do with what and how we humans are screwing ourselves.

I was just asking if you were aware of any of this from his work, based on when you became peak oily interested. Folks recycling it, again, are counting on everyone having forgotten how poorly the idea went the first couple of times it was recycled.

I have no interest in Duncan. He plays no role in my thinking or the conversation we were having about degrowth.

[Newfie]

That is the failure of the growth paradigm. Worldwide/human wide as near as I can tell.

And that is the struggle we have before us: how to come up with a new paradigm that is sustainable while still allowing us to enlarge our understanding/knowledge.

I'm pretty confidant the new paradigm is with us now. Places like Sri Lanka are experiencing it, Egypt went through it slowly a decade or two ago, China is facing it now. What it boils down to is losing access to petroleum products because you can't raise anymore debt to buy them. I know it sounds odd but there it is. Not everyone loses out in a given nation, the wealthy always have access, and in some nations, like the US, the process is slow whereby the poorer elements of society lose it first then it moves up through the classes.

One Year Ago:
Sri Lanka’s economy has “completely collapsed,” Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said Wednesday, as the crisis-hit nation faces an increasingly dire situation that has left millions struggling with fuel, electricity and food shortages.

“Our economy has faced a complete collapse,” Wickremesinghe told Sri Lanka’s Parliament, adding the government was seeking help from its global partners and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize the economy.

But Wickremesinghe warned the island nation of 22 million was “facing a far more serious situation” beyond the shortages. Sri Lanka is in the midst of its worst financial crisis in seven decades, after its foreign exchange reserves plummeted to record lows, with dollars running out to pay for essential imports including food, medicine and fuel.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/23/asia ... index.html

There is more to the Sri Lankan story but the simple fact is they were doing ok until the value of their exports, Textiles and base foods, fell, and then it was off to the races. Anyone can grow fish but you need oil to do it efficiently and to get it to market and run a modern economy.

BRICS to the rescue?

Sri Lanka set to start tea-for-oil barter with Iran next month

COLOMBO, June 23 (Reuters) - Sri Lanka is set to start bartering tea to Iran next month in lieu of $250 million owed for oil, a Sri Lankan official told Reuters on Friday, as the crisis-hit country tries to lift sales to a key market and protect its forex reserves.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 023-06-23/


Most all nations like on debt now don't they. A few don't, Saudi Arabia's is negligable and Russia's too. Both big oil exporters. So the paradigm shift is from Wealth to Abject poverty. Take oil out of the equation and you're back to the nineteen hundreds I'm afraid.

Resource depletion is an important part of degrowth but not the only part. I find it very complicated and interesting. Probably more chaotic than not.

Sir Lanka is an interesting example, but probably not very typical.

[AdamB]

I have no interest in Duncan. He plays no role in my thinking or the conversation we were having about degrowth.

That's like saying you have no interest in religion, and then spend your time quoting the Bible. Obviously he did play some role in your thinking if you read his ideas, and thought they were reasonable....even if you didn't know that he was where Olduvai thinking originated.

Hence my question about when peak oil dawned on you, as Richard was an early reference, and his ideas obviously discounted early as well. You might have missed them back then and thought they were somehow new, like the author of the website referenced apparently.