[Doly]

Anyway they are starting to question some of the historical 'Truths' about crypto, like how it's supposed to get stronger in bad economic times? Because it's sound money, unlike that evil Fiat currency that's leading us all to destruction.

Since bitcoin can't function without electricity, how could anyone expect it to do well when there is an energy crisis coming that may result in blackouts?

[AdamB]

Since bitcoin can't function without electricity, how could anyone expect it to do well when there is an energy crisis coming that may result in blackouts?

Because an "energy crisis" isn't required to be blackouts in the places where folks manufacture bitcoin. Maybe more in the places that can't afford to pay for electricity? Good thing you and I both live in the First World Doly and not the one where a "crisis" is actually a "crisis", but where stuff just tends to get more expensive.

[Doly]

Crypto NEVER experienced this situation before and Bitcoin crashed below the previous peak which invalidated its "store of value" investment thesis.

I never understood bitcoin much. But I was under the impression that bitcoin has a floor, in the sense that the first bitcoin created by Satoshi Nakamoto has never been sold, and it looks as if it was made never to be sold (though this has never been stated explicitly).

[Plantagenet]

YO CARINKE: I want to congratulate you on your good timing on your recent purchase of BITCOIN.

Announcing what you were going to do in advance took some guts.

Congrats on picking that support level to buy more BITCOIN-----BITCOIN bounced right after you bought it, and my guess is you are up ca. 10%+ on your most recent purchases.

Still.......consider that this could just be a "dead cat bounce"......i.e. a short term positive move that briefly interrupts a longer, ongoing bear market.


Dead cat bounce or start of a turnaround?

Perhaps you should take some profits now? Maybe sell half of the new purchase and take those gains and let the other half ride?

That way you definitely lock in some profit from that great trade.

GOOD LUCK TO YOU.

[theluckycountry]

My prediction is that bitcoin will head to 10,000 or lower by the end of July...

I'm not at all surprised about the bounce back above 20k, that's a major support and nothing goes straight up or down.

[theluckycountry]

Coin addicts wonder why the rest of us despise Bitcoin, well let me state the reasons.

1/ It pollutes the planet by wasting untold extra gigawatts of Electricity
2/ Is an-needed suck on productive capital
3/ It's only major uses as circulating "money" are all criminal.
4/ It has spawned a generation of hucksters and grifters.
5/ It was all based on Lies, none of the touted benefits ever came to fruition.

It's one big pile of odious excrement that needs to go. A failed experiment in social freedom.

[vtsnowedin]

RAT POISON

[dauterman]

Cryptocurrencies are not currency. By definition a currency is backed by a government or other similar entity. There is no govenrment backing bitcoin or any other crypto.

Bitcoin is legal tender in El Slvador. Legal tender status means it can be used in trade and is accepted as payment. However, it is NOT backed by the full faith and credit of the government. This is an important difference.

Bitcoin traded as low as $86 in 2013. Has anything happened since 2013 that would justify the price rise from $83 to over $20,000? To me the answer is "no" - bitcoin has been accepted as legal tender in one central american coutnry, and is more accepted in trade internationally but in my opinion this does not justify the price going up around 24,000%.

Thus, in my opinion bitcoin is a bubble. My advice is to avoid any bubbled asset. I will neither buy (go long) not sell (go short) any bubbled asset. The reason for this is because financial markets can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent.

v/r
dauterman

[Tanada]

Cryptocurrencies are not currency. By definition a currency is backed by a government or other similar entity. There is no govenrment backing bitcoin or any other crypto.

Bitcoin is legal tender in El Slvador. Legal tender status means it can be used in trade and is accepted as payment. However, it is NOT backed by the full faith and credit of the government. This is an important difference.

Bitcoin traded as low as $86 in 2013. Has anything happened since 2013 that would justify the price rise from $83 to over $20,000? To me the answer is "no" - bitcoin has been accepted as legal tender in one central american coutnry, and is more accepted in trade internationally but in my opinion this does not justify the price going up around 24,000%.

Thus, in my opinion bitcoin is a bubble. My advice is to avoid any bubbled asset. I will neither buy (go long) not sell (go short) any bubbled asset. The reason for this is because financial markets can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent.

v/r
dauterman

I have never mined or purchased any Cryptocurrency but I think you are putting an awful lot of faith in that "full faith and credit" statement about government backed money being better. The number of governments that have debased their coinage, run their cash printers overtime or created deposits with the stroke of a keyboard is too large to name. In the last few decades we have had Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe all inflate their native currencies to the point that they were worth less than toilet paper. With what the American Federal Reserve considers ideal inflation rates of 3.5% annually your savings hidden in your mattress will lose 50% of their purchasing power in 20 years. There have been 5.5 of those 20 year cycles since the Fed was created in 1913, care to guess how much your thousand dollars of paper currency you found in great grandpas basement safe would be worth in 2022 purchasing power? 1913 $1000.00, 1933 $500.00, 1953 $250.00, 1973 $125.00, 1993 $62.50, 2013 $31.25, 2022 $23.44! This built in devaluation is why a single working parent in 1913 could provide food, shelter and basic medical care to a family with a house-working spouse raising 7-9 children.

As late as the 1960's my mother working one job as a cook in a small restaurant with five dependent children at home. She was able to rent a house and keep everyone basically well fed and healthy without any form of government "assistance" or much in the way of aid from the Catholic church they all attended every Sunday. Her first husband was an incompetent thief and drunkard serving time in prison after being convicted on a string of local breaking and entering crimes where he sold off stolen goods to buy more liquor to feed his addiction. She was too proud to ask for charity when by dint of hard work she was able to support her dependent children and herself.

Today the person doing the same job would be hard pressed to support themselves as a single person living in a tiny efficiency apartment with a Murphy bed no bathroom or kitchen. That is the power of inflation over just three 20 year cycles in a country with the super power status and "full faith and credit" behind the currency.

Just to be clear I don't think Cryto's are the answer or I would have invested in them. Our system today is absolutely corrupt but I don't have any magic solution for fixing it either. I think proper understanding of what inflation does to the value of your wealth would be a great first step but that would be directly opposed by all levels of the financial industry and governments who all benefit to some extent from inflating currency until it loses all value.

[AdamB]

Bitcoin traded as low as $86 in 2013. Has anything happened since 2013 that would justify the price rise from $83 to over $20,000?

Yes. It is a ponzi scheme. Lack of regulation makes it possible.

[Plantagenet]

Bubbles in investments aren't always bad things......in fact, Overvaluation and bubbles are an intrinsic part of capitalism.

In fact the goal of investors is to buy low----sell high, i.e. buy something BEFORE the bubble and then sell it at the peak.

And its much easier to buy something at a decent price then it is to spot the top and sell at the right time.

The trick is to buy a stock, a tulip, a beanie baby, a house, a BITCOIN, or whatever....... BEFORE the bubble and then sell at the PEAK of the bubble.

Its easy to see a bubble after its popped.

AND Yes, cryptocurrencies have been in a bubble.

Similar, the stock market has been in a bubble.

But those bubbles are now popping.

The housing market is in a bubble.

That bubble is just starting to pop.

And there is a new bubble in oil prices.....that bubble is still inflating.


Bubbles are part of capitalism......the old saying "buy low sell high" means buy BEFORE the bubble and SELL when the bubble is inflated

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

I wouldn't include oil in that list. It's suffering from volatility, sure, but the price rises we have seen are more in line with basic monetary inflation. The insane 2008 run up was perhaps a bubble, I wouldn't call today's rises that though. Look at Gold. It began the new century at $250, now it's at $1800. Gold; silver, food, houses, anything you can name has gone up by 100's of percent in the last 20 years, so why not oil?

Back in 2000 oil was US$ 30/Bbl, now it's $100 a barrel, a 330% increase roughly. Looking at the 25 year chart and evening out the volatility, it makes a pretty consistent line up. No different than anything else aside from the manipulations (of Fear action) along the way

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

Now @AdamB can come in and say something intelligent about Queensland and Bananas.
Not that I'll see it though lol lol.

[AdamB]

Now @AdamB can come in and say something intelligent about Queensland and Bananas.
Not that I'll see it though lol lol.

What are you talking about, ..Queensland is it? Is that some part of that island off the coast of New Zealand where those descendants of common criminals work for the Chinese? The same ones that haven't advanced enough to even build their own cars? There isn't anything to say about intelligence in regards to that place...

[Plantagenet]

I wouldn't include oil in that list. It's suffering from volatility, sure, but the price rises we have seen are more in line with basic monetary inflation.

Not really. Oil prices have a long history of going through boom and bust cycles.....

The most recent "bust" for oil came in March 2020 when oil futures actually went negative....i.e. the markets were saying you had to pay someone $30+/bbl to even get them to take your oil....a market condition known as "contango."

crude-oil-can-get-carried-away-by-contango

I bought a couple of thousand shares of Schlumberger back when the oil markets were in contango....

Today the situation is much different.....oil is well over $100/bbl now.

The price of oil has almost quadrupled since March 2020.

If something basically quadruples in price in two years is that a price bubble? I think it clearly is a bubble.

Thats why I sold all my Schlumberger shares about a month ago (my Schlumber shares also went up a bit more than 400% in two years...)

So when will the current oil price bubble pop? When will the price of oil come back down?

I'll take a guess.......thanks to Biden's idiotic economic policies the USA is about to go into a recession.

Millions of people will lose their jobs and they won't be buying a whole lot of gasoline anymore....that decrease in demand will eventually bring down gasoline prices.

AND SO...I predict the current oil price bubble will POP sometime after the USA goes into recession....and as a bonus the EU and perhaps even China are heading into recession as well, and drops in oil demand will likely occur there as well.


I predict the current oil price bubble will POP sometime after the USA goes into recession later in 2022 or in early 2023.

The same thing happens to other assets like stocks, houses and even BITCOIN.......look at Bitcoin.....clearly it was in a bubble and now its bubble has popped. Of course if you're a BITCOIN investor this is when you should be thinking about buying.....or maybe even wait for it to go a bit lower.

Cheers!

[theluckycountry]

If something basically quadruples in price in two years is that a price bubble? I think it clearly is a bubble.

Well you're starting from the contango, so it doesn't really apply does it. That plunging price situation with oil was due to the lockdowns was it not? A totally unheard of event.

Oli will go up and down in the future of course, it's a market and there is always going to be fluctuations, but I think it's fair to say the average price (under normal non-covid situations) will rise and rise going forward. It's energy, irreplaceable energy really. Take it out of the equation and try making solar panels and Lipo batteries anyone can afford. They "say" it can be done, but it never has been

[EnergyUnlimited]

Cryptocurrencies are not currency. By definition a currency is backed by a government or other similar entity. There is no govenrment backing bitcoin or any other crypto.

Is gold or silver backed by government or similar entity?
Do you trust gold more than dollar or the other way?

[vtsnowedin]

Cryptocurrencies are not currency. By definition a currency is backed by a government or other similar entity. There is no govenrment backing bitcoin or any other crypto.

Is gold or silver backed by government or similar entity?
Do you trust gold more than dollar or the other way?

Gold does not need to be backed by anybody or any government. Same for Silver. People value them both for their many uses and the beauty of the art objects and jewelry that can be made out of them. Diamonds are a girls best friend but gold and silver make the mountings to hold the diamonds.

[Plantagenet]

Well you're starting from the contango, so it doesn't really apply does it.

Of course it applies. You can't cherry pick which price data you look at. We have to live in the real world, and the oil bust in 2020 is the logical place to start when looking at the most recent OIL BUST to OIL BOOM to OIL BUST CYCLE.

Oil (like most commodities) goes through boom and bust cycles over and over again. If you're going to invest in oil or oil stocks, then investing during an oil price "bust" is the logical thing to do. The last bust in oil prices happened in March 2020 and occurred when oil demand plummeted and oil prices plummeted.

That plunging price situation with oil was due to the lockdowns was it not? A totally unheard of event.

Totally unheard of events happen all the time. For instance, who ever expected Putin to turn into ADOLPH PUTIN and try to conquer Ukraine? Totally unheard of, right?


who ever expected Putin to turn into ADOLPH PUTIN and try to conquer Ukraine? Totally unexpected, right?

Economists even have a name for these totally unexpected and unheard of events. They call them "Black Swans." Because most swans are white, but every so often there is a black swan and you can't just ignore the black swan economic events in your economic analysis.

Oil will go up and down in the future of course, it's a market and there is always going to be fluctuations, but I think it's fair to say the average price (under normal non-covid situations) will rise and rise going forward. It's energy, irreplaceable energy really. Take it out of the equation and try making solar panels and Lipo batteries anyone can afford. They "say" it can be done, but it never has been

Of course that is true when you take a decades-long view, but on the time scale humans actually operate on......a scale of months to years.......oil has always had boom and bust cycles and most likely it will continue to have boom and bust cycles. The last bust in oil prices was in 2020, and now just two years later we are in an oil price boom.

Since we are in an oil price BOOM right now its logical to ask how long will the current oil price boom last?

Well, you know the old saying...predictions are very difficult, especially about the future.

My guess is the current oil price boom will last from 6 months to two years in duration. As soon as the Biden effects works its magic on the US economy and we go into recession, we'll have job losses and there will be less fuel demand. Similar recessions will occur in the EU and perhaps in other countries. The drop in oil demand will cause an eventual drop in oil prices.....and we will have seen yet another another BOOM-BUST oil price cycle in the oil Biz, this going from the bust in 2020 to the boom in 2022 to a future bust perhaps in 2023 or 2024? Thats assuming no BLACK SWAN events happen to interrupt the normal BOOM-BUST cycle in oil prices going forward.

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

Fear not!! the oil companies can see that the Biden administration will be ham strung come November and out of office in 2024. They can and will hold their cash and wait out the Biden administration before they dip a single drill bit into new ground or cut a permit for a refinery expansion.
Yesterdays non meeting pretty much set that policy in concrete.

[Doly]

For instance, who ever expected Putin to turn into ADOLPH PUTIN and try to conquer Ukraine? Totally unheard of, right?

I thought it was a very real possibility, especially after a former NATO general wrote the book 2017: War with Russia, which I bought when it was published.

The drop in oil demand will cause an eventual drop in oil prices.....and we will have seen yet another another BOOM-BUST oil price cycle in the oil Biz, this going from the bust in 2020 to the boom in 2022 to a future bust perhaps in 2023 or 2024?

Unless central banks decide it's imperative to keep oil prices stable, in which case they may follow a policy targeting stable oil prices.