[theluckycountry]

So you don't believe in dollar cost averaging?

Do you think that's cool
Of course I don't adhere to it. That's a false strategy put out by the 'street' to maintain a constant flow of capital through their hands. It has the punters buying constantly whether the asset is going up or down. I believe what Buffett believes, what has been common knowledge for hundreds of years. Buy low and sell high. Buy low. And sell high.

But this strategy is not for you because to employ it takes courage and hard work. You have to do your own research and lots of it too. You must determine what is currently undervalued and likely to go up in value. You can't and don't rely on what the 'experts' are singing the praises of.

Here is a good article about what you believe, replete with references to time machines etc.
https://www.thepennyhoarder.com/investi ... t%20shares.

I won't post an article discussing what I believe because those that buy low and sell high only talk of their assets and strategies when they want to sell. When they are buying they want no competition that prematurely inflates the price. It's why Buffett only ever talks about an asset just before he sells it. He's trying to lure as many investors as he can into the market and inflate the price.

Happy investing

[theluckycountry]

A dash of hopium for all the Hodlers out there

In a recent X post, Cathie Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, expressed her optimistic view on the intersection of Bitcoin and artificial intelligence (AI).

Wood’s post, along with ARK’s research, illustrates the growing influence of AI in the realm of investments. The fusion of Bitcoin and AI can potentially trigger a transformation in corporate operations, potentially reshaping productivity and cost dynamics.

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/ca ... onvergence

Much Wow!

[AgentR11]

I believe what Buffett believes, what has been common knowledge for hundreds of years. Buy low and sell high. Buy low. And sell high.

Its the sell high part I think people have a real problem with, they see the asset going up, and think if it keeps going up how much richer they'll be. Or worse, they sell, and it goes up a little more and they have huge remorse. I recall a market disruption some years ago, and bought some stuff at $6 per; later, sold it at $40'ish per.. It went to $70!! Did I lose money, nope, I made a nice pile because I was willing to sell, and realize a great gain.

You can't and don't rely on what the 'experts' are singing the praises of.

Usually a signal that they are pumping something and want off the ride at a good gain. lol.

[theluckycountry]

Its the sell high part I think people have a real problem with, they see the asset going up, and think if it keeps going up how much richer they'll be. Or worse, they sell, and it goes up a little more and they have huge remorse.

Yes, quite. Investing your hard earned is like raising children, you need to put a lot of thought into it I believe, and have a set of rules, rules that you stick to. A lot of savvy financial gurus have said over the years that when your assert has gone up a lot you sell enough to recoup you're initial investment, then you can play with the rest. Unfortunately for a lot of people today an investment is a oneshot affair, they are "all-in" for the long haul, no rules, just faith and hope.

[careinke]

Its the sell high part I think people have a real problem with, they see the asset going up, and think if it keeps going up how much richer they'll be. Or worse, they sell, and it goes up a little more and they have huge remorse.

Yes, quite. Investing your hard earned is like raising children, you need to put a lot of thought into it I believe, and have a set of rules, rules that you stick to. A lot of savvy financial gurus have said over the years that when your assert has gone up a lot you sell enough to recoup you're initial investment, then you can play with the rest. Unfortunately for a lot of people today an investment is a oneshot affair, they are "all-in" for the long haul, no rules, just faith and hope.

That is the hardest thing to do, and I suck at it. Fear Of Missing Out, FOMO, is a strong emotion and makes people jump in at the highs and hold on when the asset starts declining.

This cycle with the help of TA , some trailing stop losses, and a lot of learning/study, I HOPE to do better.

Still the average cost of my BTC is under a grand per coin, so I'm way up since my first purchase in 2014.

Fun fact: If you had .1 BTC costing about $2,500.00 USD today, and then every millionaire in the world decided to by BTC, you would own more BTC than the average millionaire. Simple math.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

Why people buy and sell a given asset is a study in itself. Even houses, which are "safe as houses" as they say are subject to periods of distrust and outright rejection by investors. A lot comes down to taxes of various kinds of course but also to future expectations on the utility of the house. Which is just a fancy way of saying who will want to rent it or buy it in a decades time. Homes in the Chicago suburbs for example, I'm sure a lot of investors got burned there.

I ask myself these questions and keep an eye out to whether these fundamentals have changed or may change. The idea that fundamentals have little to do with an asset's value may be true in the short term but in the long term they certainly play a big role. Oil for example is an asset class and it's clear that as it depletes it's value is going up. It may have a decade where it is low, but then it resumes it's climb, reflecting it's scarcity, it's utility.

[careinke]

Hey All,

BTC has started it's bull run today, while major banks are dropping and Gold has not really moved in the last five years. BTC jumped 12% so far today.

I bought more right after Cramer declared on Friday he had just dumped his crypto and suggested everyone else do the same. A clear buy signal.

Lots of S#it happening in the world, I'm having trouble keeping up. Still I love it and feel lucky to watch the the NWO fall apart. I fully expect the dying Empires to get violent soon.

Fix the Money, Fix the World.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

Hey All,

BTC has started it's bull run today... BTC jumped 12% so far today.

One day's action signals a bull run? Ok, that sounds like a crypto analysis. Lets say the run lasts 5 days, then we enter a new bear market for 3 weeks, sound about right?

BTC Oct 2021 $62,000
BTC Oct 2023 $35,000 (Down by 44% in 2 years)

while major banks are dropping and Gold has not really moved in the last five years.

So an increase of 60% is not really moving? You see. This is the problem I have with crypto. No one involved with it has a clue what they are talking about.

[careinke]

Hey All,

BTC has started it's bull run today... BTC jumped 12% so far today.

One day's action signals a bull run? Ok, that sounds like a crypto analysis. Lets say the run lasts 5 days, then we enter a new bear market for 3 weeks, sound about right?

BTC Oct 2021 $62,000
BTC Oct 2023 $35,000 (Down by 44% in 2 years)

while major banks are dropping and Gold has not really moved in the last five years.

So an increase of 60% is not really moving? You see. This is the problem I have with crypto. No one involved with it has a clue what they are talking about.

Lucky,

Sorry I was very tired when I wrote that and posted based on my unreliable memory. I'll try and do better.

What I was thinking about with the gold prices for the last three years, taking into account our inflation rate.

I asked Bard to figure this one out. Here is its response.

To calculate the current gold price using the 2021 dollar, we need to divide the current gold price by the inflation rate since 2021.

The current gold price is $1,975.70 per ounce. The inflation rate since 2021 is 14%.

Therefore, the current gold price using the 2021 dollar would be:

$1,975.70 / (1 + 14%) = $1,722.29
In other words, gold would be about $253 cheaper per ounce today if we were using the 2021 dollar.

(Note: This is just a rough estimate, as inflation rates can vary depending on the specific goods and services being measured.)

As far as the 44% BTC drop from all time to Yesterday is a big improvement over the drop from BTCs ATH to this cycles actual low.

Bard says:

According to my knowledge, Bitcoin dropped from its all-time high of $68,789.63 on November 10, 2021 to a low of $15,682.69 on November 9, 2022. This represents a drop of 77.3%.

Here is a shorter version in three sentences:

Bitcoin dropped from its all-time high of $68,789.63 to a low of $15,682.69 in 2022, a drop of 77.3%.

This is a lower drop than any previous Havening cycle, but that is expected as BTC users expand.

YTD BTC is up over 100%.
Bard Says:

According to MarketWatch, Bitcoin has increased by 106.27% year-to-date as of October 24, 2023.

This means that Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 by a significant margin in 2023 so far.

Part of the recent rise, is expectations of a spot BTC ETF coming within the next 3-4 months (based on comments from the CEO of Blackrock). This will allow Boomer investors and most retirement plans the legal ability to add BTC to their portfolios.

Since the first Gold ETF, (congrats to Australia), in 2003, followed by the US in 2004, Gold prices increased significantly.

Of course I have no plans to buy any BTC ETFs. I prefer buying actual BTC.

I'm actually into BTC not for profit but to Separate Money and State as was envisioned by our founding fathers. I'm currently reading "The Sovereign Individuals" first released in 1997.

More details from Bard:

The Sovereign Individual was first published in 1997, under the title "The Sovereign Individual: How to Survive and Thrive During the Collapse of the Welfare State". It was republished in 1999 under its current title, "The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age".

It's uncanny how accurate a lot of their predictions have played out, with more to come.

Once again I apologize for my previous post. I'll try harder.

PEACE

[theluckycountry]

Lucky,

Sorry I was very tired when I wrote that and posted based on my unreliable memory. I'll try and do better.

lol, yes I figured that, but I couldn't help myself taking a cheap shot. My apologies.

What I was thinking about with the gold prices for the last three years, taking into account our inflation rate. I asked Bard to figure this one out. Here is its response.

To calculate the current gold price using the 2021 dollar, we need to divide the current gold price by the inflation rate since 2021. The current gold price is $1,975.70 per ounce. The inflation rate since 2021 is 14%.
Therefore, the current gold price using the 2021 dollar would be:
$1,975.70 / (1 + 14%) = $1,722.29
In other words, gold would be about $253 cheaper per ounce today if we were using the 2021 dollar.

Yes you are quite correct, and I have noticed that too. But what you will see throughout history is that gold price inflation lags general price inflation which lags monetary inflation.

Consider the long term chart of gold in view of the monetary inflation that began in 1971 with the shift off the international gold standard. That triggered higher inflation in general prices. Gold didn't really begin moving though until late in the decade.

In the winters of 1972 and 1973, Burns began to worry about inflation. In 1973, inflation more than doubled to 8.8%. Later in the decade, it would go to 12%. By 1980, inflation was at 14%.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/e ... lation.asp





Consider also the gold price in 2006, which was the peak of the US housing bubble that began after 911 when under the Bush administration the Fed lowered interest rates precipitously to save us from the IT bubble.



As you can see, it took gold a few more years to catch up with the general inflation. But it certainly did, then overshot. Then it settled back to a level over twice that of before. In other words it compensated for all the inflation of the 00's. Knowing this one could buy a pile of paper gold as well and use it to sell at the next overshoot, thereby making a nice profit. I don't seek that from gold myself though. I just seek the preservation of purchasing power and the protection of savings.

There are many factors in the world today that should have pushed the price much much higher, or lower! The mass accumulation by the BRICS nations for example, or the end of the gold standard. But the Gold price doesn't seem to be easily influenced. It just goes along on it's merry way, tracking inflation as it always has.

[mousepad]

https://ccaf.io/cbnsi/cbeci

15GW for the whole bitcoin operation

https://www.statista.com/statistics/881 ... ison-visa/

700kWh for one bitcoin transaction.
0.0015kWh for one credit card transaction.

The stupidity of man truly has no upper bound.

Fix stupidity, fix the world.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

700kWh for one bitcoin transaction.
0.0015kWh for one credit card transaction.

The stupidity of man truly has no upper bound.

Fix stupidity, fix the world.

Peace

Amen brother. It makes about as much sense as building an EV with a 10 year lifespan, covering every high hill with wind generators having a 15 year lifespan.

[careinke]

https://ccaf.io/cbnsi/cbeci

15GW for the whole bitcoin operation

https://www.statista.com/statistics/881 ... ison-visa/

700kWh for one bitcoin transaction.
0.0015kWh for one credit card transaction.

The stupidity of man truly has no upper bound.

Fix stupidity, fix the world.

Peace

Yawn, we've been over this before. Here are some more numbers:

Bitcoin: 133.68 TWh/year

Lightbulbs: 1,617.6 TWh/year

Clothes dryers: 335.28 TWh/year, just in the U.S. alone.

I tried to find Fiat central bank numbers but they seem to be closely guarded.

I suggest you read:
A Progressive's Case for Bitcoin: A Path Toward a More Just, Equitable, and Peaceful World . Bitcoin Magazine Books. Kindle Edition.

Then we can speak the same language.

Fix stupidity, fix the world

We both agree on that one, we just have different solutions.

Peace

[mousepad]

700kWh for one bitcoin transaction.
0.0015kWh for one credit card transaction.

Bitcoin: 133.68 TWh/year
Lightbulbs: 1,617.6 TWh/year
Clothes dryers: 335.28 TWh/year, just in the U.S. alone.

Yes, we're comparing financial transaction with cloth dryers and light bulps. Good job!!!!!

No wonder you've fallen for crypto head over heel.

[careinke]

700kWh for one bitcoin transaction.
0.0015kWh for one credit card transaction.

Bitcoin: 133.68 TWh/year
Lightbulbs: 1,617.6 TWh/year
Clothes dryers: 335.28 TWh/year, just in the U.S. alone.

Yes, we're comparing financial transaction with cloth dryers and light bulps. Good job!!!!!

No wonder you've fallen for crypto head over heel.

You were the one to bring up the false narrative. Besides how could you stop it? You can't, this Pandora's treasure has already escaped the box.

Peace

[Plantagenet]

.... this Pandora's treasure has already escaped the box.
Peace

Bitcoin is currently up again. Congrats!

But crypto hasn't entirely escaped the box.

The facts show the crypto industry has been riddled with conmen and cheats.

In fact, some of cryptocurrencies biggest proponents turned out to be crooks and fraudsters and are now being put in little boxes with bars on them....hopefully for the rest of their lives.





Cheers!

[careinke]

Hopefully SBF spends a Looooonnnnngggg time in jail. Your confusing fraud with bitcoin. Two different things, SBF is a criminal, BTC is the best money.

On the other hand banks and governments are thieves. Stealing is a SIN.

Since the beginning of the year I'm up well over 100%, and I hold all my own coins. And this is only the first year of the BTC bull market, two more years to go in this cycle. It's going to be a great ride!

For those interested, I have found this guy to be the best information source since I've been doing this (2014). He also does deep dives on most disruptive technologies.

https://www.youtube.com/@InvestAnswers

I get nothing from promoting him. I am a patreon member of his, but I don't think there are any openings.

Jump on in the climate is great.

Peace

[careinke]

Hi all,

Turns out the SEC is looking for crypto experts. The only hitch is you are required to sell ALL of your crypto!

That's like a car dealership hiring expert mechanics, but not allowing them to own cars.

No wonder the SEC can't win any lawsuits.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

On The (Eventual) Irrelevance Of SBF

Sam Bankman-Fried’s recent conviction inspired many front page stories, most of which read like obituaries. Not just of his time as a free man but also the broader dreams of crypto. It all makes me laugh because none of this will matter in the long run. The afroed and acronymed psychopath will be forgotten long before he gets out of jail. Anyone who disagrees should take a moment to reflect on the importance of Bernie Ebbers to the modern internet.

If you’ve never heard of him then you are in good company, none of my students knew anything about him or his company either.

Bernard John Ebbers was the founder and CEO of Worldcom, once one of the largest telecommunication companies in the world and a contributor to the physical infrastructure of the internet, until it collapsed due to an accounting scandal — still the largest in US history. Far more value was destroyed by Worldcom than FTX, and Ebbers was sentenced to 25 years in prison.

So what does this story have to do with the modern internet? Virtually nothing. A network of computers that transmit packets of data was always going to be a thing. The soap opera of who did what when during its awkward adolescent years is now just a footnote in history. The same is true for most other tech revolutions, despite their own bubbles, frauds, and charismatic psychopaths. The only question that mattered in the long run was whether the proposed solution did something useful.

The money management industry is ten times bigger today than it was when a different Bernie went down in flames. The railroad bubbles of the 1800s didn’t invalidate the idea of trains and Ken Lay didn’t make us turn off the lights. Mortgage-backed securities are still an important thing, even if Lehman isn’t. You probably live off of electronic payments, but have never heard of Wirecard...

Full Article
https://omid-malekan.medium.com/on-the- ... a14b2ddafe

[careinke]

I recently sold my ETH and spent the cash in SOL. I feel SOL has the best chance of killing ETH. SOL is fast and has demonstrated 1.2 trillion transaction per second. This was with just 4 nodes. Soon there will no longer even be a limit on transactions. I also had numerous other reasons for making the switch, especially the cost to make transactions, nothing is cheaper.

So far today, I am way up, and the day is only half done. And my switch from ETH to SOL seems to be working.

WEEEEeeeeeeeee

Peace