Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:Very interesting report at link with lots of graphs to back up each portion. Highly recommended for reading and discussion.
Report
C8 wrote:Basically it says that the transition to renewable energy dominance will be swift.
Tanada wrote:Very interesting report at link with lots of graphs to back up each portion. Highly recommended for reading and discussion.
Report
C8 wrote:But a successful transition will require using 80% less energy, not a different type of energy. Renewable energy will never come close to matching what FF's could produce on a sustainable basis (as renewable systems wear out and need constant replacement).
jedrider wrote:Peak Oil was in 2019 I think. Is this wrong?
Doly wrote:This is the sort of report that irritates me: written from a market-based approach.
Doly wrote:The problem with any market-based approach is that it begins by taking for granted that markets will exist and function reasonably well. These guys talk about the "expert's curse" and then can't see outside their own box.
Doly wrote:The problem with supposing that demand for alternative energies will grow rapidly once you reach the peak in fossil fuels assumes that there will be no significant energy shortage issues during the peak (how come?), and that those energy shortage issues aren't going to affect those markets that supposedly can change so fast and smoothly.
Doly wrote:My own model isn't market-based, and it pointed at difficulties in the energy transition, precisely because it's just hard to change a whole bunch of industrial infrastructure when energy itself is an issue.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:That being said I also never believed that when PO happens the economy will shatter like a hot glass pitcher filled with ice cold beer.
Tanada wrote:Presumably PO will bring a stop to easily expanding use of fossil liquid fuels, but we have known for a century now how to convert coal into diesel fuel and how to convert natural gas into gasoline/kerosene those three liquids being the primary forms of liquid fuels our civilization, so called, consumes.
Tanada wrote:Voters get rather testy when politicians spend two decades promising the green energy revolution and after hundreds of billions of euros being invested they find they are paying 600% of the 2002 electricity price and have made themselves dependent on cheap Russian natural gas. Because they were not prepared to import LNG form the world market and even worse the world market was not able to supply all they wanted even at a substantial price premium. Also the intermittent renewables have failed to live up to the hype, badly.
Tanada wrote:
I do not currently believe that the intermittent renewables like Wind and Solar can expand themselves based strictly on the energy they provide absent fossil fuel support...
That being said I also never believed that when PO happens the economy will shatter like a hot glass pitcher filled with ice cold beer. Especially not while we have abundant supplies of both Natural Gas and Coal available to keep the economy operating at a high level...
theluckycountry wrote:Tanada wrote:
I do not currently believe that the intermittent renewables like Wind and Solar can expand themselves based strictly on the energy they provide absent fossil fuel support...
That being said I also never believed that when PO happens the economy will shatter like a hot glass pitcher filled with ice cold beer. Especially not while we have abundant supplies of both Natural Gas and Coal available to keep the economy operating at a high level...
A well balanced outlook Tanada, and one I agree with.
C8 wrote:
But a successful transition will require using 80% less energy, not a different type of energy. Renewable energy will never come close to matching what FF's could produce on a sustainable basis (as renewable systems wear out and need constant replacement).
This reality will not need to be accepted- it will be forced on people over time.
C8 wrote:Basically it says that the transition to renewable energy dominance will be swift.
I gotta say I disagree with everything they wrote and it reads like happy talk.
Tanada wrote:Very interesting report at link with lots of graphs to back up each portion. Highly recommended for reading and discussion.
Report
jawagord wrote:
The mistake these reports all make is to assume the rest of the world is the same Economically and Politically as Europe/USA. The energy transitions fantasies that rich countries can indulge in by borrowing huge sums of money to subsidize unreliable wind and solar are not available to poor countries.
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