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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby careinke » Tue 15 Nov 2022, 17:09:52

Armageddon wrote:BREAKING: Global banking giants are starting a 12-week digital dollar pilot with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Reuters


Gee, I wonder who’s been saying that?


ME!!!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 15 Nov 2022, 18:35:23

Armageddon wrote:BREAKING: Global banking giants are starting a 12-week digital dollar pilot with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Reuters
Gee, I wonder who’s been saying that?


Alex Jones? The small silver mining guy? The psychological delusion of a Hollywood character in a movie that now writes for ZeroHedge?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 15 Nov 2022, 19:09:05

Households debt rose at the fastest pace in 15 years, with credit card debt rising the most in 20 years, as inflation forced more Americans to borrow to pay their bills. Total debt jumped by $351 billion to $16.5 trillion in Q3, the largest nominal quarterly increase since 2007.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 15 Nov 2022, 20:04:03

Armageddon wrote:Households debt rose at the fastest pace in 15 years, with credit card debt rising the most in 20 years, as inflation forced more Americans to borrow to pay their bills. Total debt jumped by $351 billion to $16.5 trillion in Q3, the largest nominal quarterly increase since 2007.


So change your Depends and stop pretending the rest of us suffer from your incontinence.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 15 Nov 2022, 20:52:17

AdamB wrote:
You and VT love the guy,

If you think I love Trump you have very poor reading comprehension or something that is not to be stated here to stay inside the rules of decorum.
.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 15 Nov 2022, 21:29:40

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
You and VT love the guy,

If you think I love Trump you have very poor reading comprehension or something that is not to be stated here to stay inside the rules of decorum.
.



He likes making up stuff
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 15 Nov 2022, 22:09:32

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
You and VT love the guy,

If you think I love Trump you have very poor reading comprehension or something that is not to be stated here to stay inside the rules of decorum.
.


First, you shouldn't have edited the quote, because you took me out of context.

The fuller quote that include the follow on modifier, was:
AdamB wrote:You and VT love the guy, his leadership or the party, nothing wrong with that,


After that comma VT, was "his leadership or the party". I didn't claim you were thrilled with both, but certainly you are with one, and not the other. I am aware that you have claimed to not be happy with the seditionist traitor running YOUR PARTY. So, decorum is to quote properly before pretending I meant something I did not.

For the record I believe you that you aren't happy with the LEADER OF YOUR PARTY. I wouldn't want to be associated with a traitor running any organization I am involved with either, be it the PTA or bridge club. But it is YOUR PARTY, so don't forget to cheer them on because, you know, you can't do anything else.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 16 Nov 2022, 10:43:54

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
You and VT love the guy,

If you think I love Trump you have very poor reading comprehension or something that is not to be stated here to stay inside the rules of decorum.
.


First, you shouldn't have edited the quote, because you took me out of context.

The fuller quote that include the follow on modifier, was:
AdamB wrote:You and VT love the guy, his leadership or the party, nothing wrong with that,


After that comma VT, was "his leadership or the party". I didn't claim you were thrilled with both, but certainly you are with one, and not the other. I am aware that you have claimed to not be happy with the seditionist traitor running YOUR PARTY. So, decorum is to quote properly before pretending I meant something I did not.

For the record I believe you that you aren't happy with the LEADER OF YOUR PARTY. I wouldn't want to be associated with a traitor running any organization I am involved with either, be it the PTA or bridge club. But it is YOUR PARTY, so don't forget to cheer them on because, you know, you can't do anything else.

BS I quoted your segment as is including the comma. Segments of a sentence between commas are thoughts in themselves and any reader would read that as I love Trump.
You are wrong, your opinions about my beliefs are wrong, and your advice about how I should deal with the Republican party is both wrong and unwanted.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 16 Nov 2022, 11:32:23

The US Homebuilder Confidence Index fell to 33 for the 11th straight monthly decline.

This is the longest losing streak in the history of the report.

Meanwhile, the average 30-year mortgage is now at 7.2% and demand is at its lowest since 1997.

The housing market makes up 30% of GDP.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 16 Nov 2022, 13:58:47

The fuller quote that includes the follow on modifier, was:
AdamB wrote:You and VT love the guy, his leadership or the party, nothing wrong with that,

vtsnowedin wrote:BS I quoted your segment as is including the comma.


I provided the full quote again, so that you might compare it to your shorter one. And notice the difference, and what it modifies.

vtsnowedin wrote:Segments of a sentence between commas are thoughts in themselves and any reader would read that as I love Trump.


An ignorant reader perhaps, who doesn't have the brains to realize that there was a qualifier involved. Read it again, I provided it above, and think about it, rather than reacting to it. I'm the first to admit that me and commas can get wildly amusing, but as I said, I know you aren't fond of the traitor leading your party, hence why I modified the statement slightly in its original form. I am willing to let mousepad moderate, as he is good at catching my verbal slipups with math concepts, I'll take his advice on my grammar as well. [smilie=adora.gif]

The only reason you are sensitive to this issue at all is because he is the REPUBLICAN'S guy, the leader of the party, YOUR party, representing you and all his minions as a traitor in full view, YOU and every other registered Republican. Enjoy the bed your fellow party zealots have made, but you can't blame me for it any more than you can Sleepy Joe being sleepy. He is what he is, and YOUR party leader is the closest thing to an American traitor our country has seen since the Rosenbergs.

vtsnowedin wrote:You are wrong...


As I say when challenged in my scientific work and writings, I stand by the words I wrote. I cannot be held responsible for those who want to insert something that is not there.

vtsnowedin wrote:....your opinions about my beliefs are wrong,


Which ones? Your hyper-partisanship? Nope...that one has 95-5 odds in favor. Your love of party over country? I'd peg that one at 60/40 in favor currently, your demonstrable reverse hyper-partisanship being the reason why it isn't a 50/50 tossup, but based on your posting record I can't give those odds.

vtsnowedin wrote:...and your advice about how I should deal with the Republican party is both wrong and unwanted.


Commentary on how the Republicans can fix the stain on their entire party is just commentary, and you might not have noticed, but your only solution to the issue the entire country is noticing (RHINOs make a comeback!! Defeat American Traitor In Landslide!) is to date a pipe-dream.

You Republicans voted the guy to the top of the Vermont primary VT, not me, and not the Dems. That isn't wrong...those are YOUR neighbor's voting in the traitor. As far as unwanted, well, no one likes it when a hard truth is so easy to point out, in your case faith to the party regardless of its UnAmerican affiliations here recently. You can accept reality, or work towards a RHINO takeover if only to not fall within guilt by association I suppose? Good luck with that.

In either case I don't care, because I ain't a stinkin' rah-rah-cis-boom-bah party over country Republicrat or Democan. You and friends can solve your parties relationship with seditionist traitors, or elevate them to the highest office in the land. Again. All I can do is a cast an American vote based on American values, and not whatever others in a party run by a traitor laughingly calls "values". The same applies for the leaning communist contingent. Down with all party hacks!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 16 Nov 2022, 16:28:38

Home Builder Buyer Traffic just hit early-2008 Levels.

I'm not sure people have fully grasped how bad this Housing Recession/Crash is.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 16 Nov 2022, 16:42:58

Armageddon wrote:Home Builder Buyer Traffic just hit early-2008 Levels.

I'm not sure people have fully grasped how bad this Housing Recession/Crash is.

I don't see Crash as the correct term.People are stalled in that they can't or wont borrow money at these rates but that means they stay where they are while they wait it out. The home builders will have to switch over to smaller remodeling projects that don't require loans. Tough for that segment of the economy but not a crash or crisis. It will not surprise me if new housing starts drop to the levels near where they were when Volker had mortgage rates at 18%.
If we get to that I'll call it a crash.
https://www.aier.org/article/volcker-an ... -for-2022/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 16 Nov 2022, 17:22:49

vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Home Builder Buyer Traffic just hit early-2008 Levels.

I'm not sure people have fully grasped how bad this Housing Recession/Crash is.

I don't see Crash as the correct term.People are stalled in that they can't or wont borrow money at these rates but that means they stay where they are while they wait it out. The home builders will have to switch over to smaller remodeling projects that don't require loans. Tough for that segment of the economy but not a crash or crisis. It will not surprise me if new housing starts drop to the levels near where they were when Volker had mortgage rates at 18%.
If we get to that I'll call it a crash.
https://www.aier.org/article/volcker-an ... -for-2022/




Home builders don’t do remodeling projects, they build homes.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 16 Nov 2022, 18:33:21

Armageddon wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Home Builder Buyer Traffic just hit early-2008 Levels.

I'm not sure people have fully grasped how bad this Housing Recession/Crash is.

I don't see Crash as the correct term.People are stalled in that they can't or wont borrow money at these rates but that means they stay where they are while they wait it out. The home builders will have to switch over to smaller remodeling projects that don't require loans. Tough for that segment of the economy but not a crash or crisis. It will not surprise me if new housing starts drop to the levels near where they were when Volker had mortgage rates at 18%.
If we get to that I'll call it a crash.
https://www.aier.org/article/volcker-an ... -for-2022/




Home builders don’t do remodeling projects, they build homes.

The big corporate ones yes, but around here the smaller operations divide the work between both and move to the one that is in demand at the moment. In hard times you have to be flexible to survive.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 16 Nov 2022, 18:57:43

Armageddon wrote:I'm not sure people have fully grasped how bad this Housing Recession/Crash is.


I'm not sure if you provided video of the Pacific Ocean boiling people would believe you regardless. That credibility thing, sucker born every minute, your natural tendency to see doom where none exists, etc etc.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 16 Nov 2022, 19:04:09

vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Home builders don’t do remodeling projects, they build homes.

The big corporate ones yes, but around here the smaller operations divide the work between both and move to the one that is in demand at the moment. In hard times you have to be flexible to survive.


Same here in a large non-backwater part of the country as well. Corporate builders seem to focus on projects, entire sub-divisions. Most everyone else, including 5 man Hispanic construction teams, build one at a time or do as much remodeling as you'd like. I worked with a nice project office bookkeeper type lady for years at the office, she passed away recently and her small home on a reasonable plot of suburban land, about a half mile from my place that I pass nearly every day when I'm out, got sold and they tore the place down, built a standard McMansion. I swear, no more than 5 guys there at any one time, and they just humped from dawn to dusk to make it happen.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 16 Nov 2022, 19:50:42

vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Home Builder Buyer Traffic just hit early-2008 Levels.

I'm not sure people have fully grasped how bad this Housing Recession/Crash is.

I don't see Crash as the correct term.People are stalled in that they can't or wont borrow money at these rates but that means they stay where they are while they wait it out. The home builders will have to switch over to smaller remodeling projects that don't require loans. Tough for that segment of the economy but not a crash or crisis. It will not surprise me if new housing starts drop to the levels near where they were when Volker had mortgage rates at 18%.
If we get to that I'll call it a crash.
https://www.aier.org/article/volcker-an ... -for-2022/




Home builders don’t do remodeling projects, they build homes.

The big corporate ones yes, but around here the smaller operations divide the work between both and move to the one that is in demand at the moment. In hard times you have to be flexible to survive.



All the home building around here in the suburbs of STL are the big home builders. Also, as home prices decline and rates go up, remodeling will plummet too. No more taking out the equity and using it for home improvements either. You people have no idea what’s coming. This is uncharted waters with raising rates rates into a recession with record debt on every level.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 16 Nov 2022, 20:25:42

Armageddon wrote:

All the home building around here in the suburbs of STL are the big home builders. Also, as home prices decline and rates go up, remodeling will plummet too. No more taking out the equity and using it for home improvements either. You people have no idea what’s coming. This is uncharted waters with raising rates rates into a recession with record debt on every level.
Having lived through the Carter years while building my house I have a very good idea of what is coming. And it is not uncharted waters, just a very bad song played over again.
One funny thing. In the seventies a nearby farmer which was considered a bit of a nut had a big sign next to the state road saying "No trillion dollar national debt".
If people had only listened to him. :(
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 16 Nov 2022, 20:29:13

Armageddon wrote: You people have no idea what’s coming.


Sure we do, we all lived through the end of the world you claimed in 2008. Turns out, you didn't know squat about what the end of the world looked like, I mean really, best equity/market investment opportunity of a generation? And you thought that was the end of the world? Did your parents teach you cowardice or does it come naturally?

Please sir, give me more. For starters, give me a dip worth buying into, then we can talk about a decent market crash to go into big time. Blood in the streets Armie, blood in the streets, and we are nowhere near there.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 26

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 18 Nov 2022, 05:57:00

Last week, my portfolio went up by more than ten percent! I was pretty stoked. I sent a brag email to a friend. It was easily double the best day I had ever had.

I think you need to be in the market. Everything I do is predicated upon my average cost per share. I try to keep that as low as possible. I use it to determine if a stock is in a buying range or not. It works, once I have enough of a history with a stock. I have thirty stocks in my portfolio. Although many of them are currently priced above my average cost per share, there are enough that are still below that.

I could look at the low price of those stocks that are still cheap and think I need to sell them. Cut my losses, so to speak. I ask myself whether I should regularly. The only thing is that I bought them due to a thesis. When I ask myself if I should sell them, I consider the thesis. Does it still hold? What is my risk now?

I don't panic. I mean, I consider the same things that I would if I had panicked, but I don't panic. I consider those things, but I also consider other things. I haven't pre-judged that I am going to lose before doing anything. I get keeping your head on a swivel about danger, but that still doesn't mean that panicking is a good thing.
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