Plantagenet wrote:I always thought the term "peak oil" came from Hubbert, but according to the retrospective article in the link below the term "peak oil" was coined and popularized by Dr. Colin Campbell.
Peak Oil: Failed prediction or useful insight
The article is correct in terms of the popularization. And specifically avoids discussing Colin's beginning when he called global peak in 1990, establishing himself early as Mr Rinse-Recycle-Repeat.
Plantagenet wrote:Campbell himself was the chief geologist at BP and his actual job at BP was to predict the future of global oil production. In the late 90s Campbell predicted peak oil would occur ca. 2005-2007 at a rate of about 85 million barrels per day.
There appears to be no mention of Colin being
a head geologist of BP. More like the usual career path of folks moving around with different majors, then moving onto consultancy. including his early collaboration with PetroConsultants.
You just take a bait offered, doncha Plant. Is it a problem that Colin was more run of the mill than the acolytes are told while listening intently in the pews?
Plantagenet wrote:Colin Campbell then founded and served as the President of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil.
With the clarity of hindsight we can now say with certainty that Dr. Colin Campbell's prediction of ca. 2005 for the date of peak oil was premature.
And his call in 1990 even more so. This is just one of the details that don't make the Sunday morning flyer when pitching peak to the faithful.
Plantagenet wrote:As Yogi Berra once said, "Its tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
Too bad Colin didn't pay attention to baseball quotes while predicting peak oils in 2 different centuries and multiple times in his career as Chief Prophet of the geologically ignorant.
Plantagenet wrote:Nonetheless, in spite of the difficulties, a few brave people still try to predict the future.
And Dr. Colin Campbell was one of those people.
We sure do. And have learned not to use bell shaped nonsense to base it on as well. Evolution in action, and Colin certainly popularized the church dogma. At the end of the day, it is unfortunate he never got around to being part of that evolution himself.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"