kublikhan wrote:.....if you wanted to do the math yourself, there was only a 1.4% difference between the scrappage rate of EVs(6.6%) vs ICE(5.2%). So just grab a carbon footprint study and increase the EV's carbon footprint by 1.4%.
Yes, thank you for reposting that data. Of course we discussed this issue earlier.
Using the numbers you post would get you a snapshot of the current carbon differential between the current ICE and EV vehicle fleets, but I want to know what is the actual difference in scrappage rate between ICE and EV vehicle fleets when you control for age, i.e. to really understand and compare the absolute EV scrappage rate with the absolute ICE scrappage rate you have to norm the data to correct for the wildly different average ages of EV vehicles vs. ICE vehicles on the road because the EV fleet is much much much younger than the ICE fleet.
New cars typically get scrapped at lower rates than older cars, because cars tend to wear out as they get older. The fact that the much much younger EV fleet actually has a HIGHER rate of scrappage, even though almost none of them have worn out yet is remarkable and a bad omen as the scrappage rates for EVs will almost certainly go up even higher as the EV fleet ages.
The current average age of the current (mainly ICE) US auto fleet is 12.5 years. I don't know what the average age of EV vehicles on the road is, but since EV sales are rocketing upward I'll bet most of the EVs on the road are probably only 1-3 years old, so I would guess the average age of the EV fleet is only ca. 1-2 years....and yet the fact that as a group the almost new EVs on the road today have a HIGHER scrappage rate then ICE vehicles who average 12.5 years in age is really amazingly bad for the EVs, especially when we were promised that EVs would be more sustainable then ICE vehicles.
Presumably as EV vehicles become more and more common on the roads in the future, their scrappage rate will tend to increase to even HIGHER rates as the EV vehicle fleet gets older, and so the discrepancy with ICE vehicles will presumably get even larger.
What I'm wondering is just how high a rate will EVs be scrapped at when they become comparable in age to the current ICE vehicle population, i.e. what the is ACTUAL different in scrappage rates when you control for age.....
You don't see a whole lot of older EVs on the road, while the average age of ICE vehicles is currently 12.5 years.
Cheers!