[AdamB]

They are being 'woke' in other words.

I am terribly curious how a kangaroo riding MAGA clown came to be raised in the land of banana bending?

[kublikhan]

Remember, I called it. PeakEV
Yes the pace of EV sales are up, whatever that means lol, but the exponential growth has flatlined.

You don't understand what it means when sales are up? That means sales are growing. That means sales have not peaked. That means you are wrong.

US electric vehicle sales are gathering pace, hitting the 4mn mark at the end of June. “There’s no doubt that the pie for EVs is getting bigger. More people that were buying combustion engines are buying EVs . . . Tesla’s sales are growing, but everybody’s sales are growing, and that’s the sign of a strong market.”

It took nearly eight years to sell the first 1mn battery-powered cars, trucks and vans in the US, a milestone hit in 2018. The 2mn mark took roughly 32 months, and the third million took approximately 15 months. The accelerating pace brought the 4 millionth sale after just 10 months. Tesla, General Motors and Rivian all reported strong US sales and deliveries for EVs during the second quarter, as did BYD in China.

Sales of electric vehicles in the US are accelerating

Vehicle sales in China grew nearly 10% in the first half of 2023, while new electric vehicle sales grew 44% over the same period. Total vehicles sold in the first half amounted to 13.24 million, of which 3.75 million were EVs. It’s a market share of 28% and continued growth at a time despite government subsidies for EVs ending last year. What’s more, China continues to expand its EV market share globally. KraneShares reported in the China Last Night blog a 170% increase in EV exports from China year-over-year in June.

EV Sales in China Grew 44% in First Half

Global plug-in vehicle registrations were up 50% year on year in May, reaching 1.06 million units. Plug-in vehicles, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), claimed a 16% share of the global new-car market in May. BEVs alone accounted for 11% of registrations, as more drivers around the world switched to electric drivetrains from conventional petrol and diesel models. Between January and May, plug-in vehicles took a 14% share of global new-car sales, with BEVs accounting for 10%, and PHEVs the remaining 4%.

Plug-in vehicles make up 16% of global new-car sales in May

Jul 10, 2023 - Global EV sales are forecast to reach 14 million in 2023, up 37% from 10.2 million sales in 2022.

Electric car statistics: Market share and sales

[mousepad]

but the exponential growth has flatlined.

That means you are wrong.

Lucky uses unlucky words, but from your own graph you can see that starting 2020 growth in sales is no longer exponential, but linear.
Of course we need 10 years worth of data to really confirm a trend, but interesting it is no less. Is the hype fizzling out? Did all the yuppies in plush suburbs buy their tesla already? Exponential growth flatlined, just as Lucky said. From your own data.

Jul 10, 2023 - Global EV sales are forecast to reach 14 million in 2023, up 37% from 10.2 million sales in 2022.

[/quote]

[kublikhan]

Lucky uses unlucky words, but from your own graph you can see that starting 2020 growth in sales is no longer exponential, but linear.
Of course we need 10 years worth of data to really confirm a trend, but interesting it is no less. Is the hype fizzling out? Did all the yuppies in plush suburbs buy their tesla already? Exponential growth flatlined, just as Lucky said. From your own data.

Incorrect. If growth flatlines it will have, as it's name suggests, a flat line on the graph. Not a linear growth line. Example of growth flatlining:

What's behind flatlining global productivity, and here's why it won't last

What's behind flatlining global productivity, and here's why it won't last

And if EV sales are growing linearly it certainly does not equal peak EV sales. Lucky was flat out wrong about that. EV sales tripled between 2020 and 2022 and are growing further in 2023:

Electric vehicle (EV) sales have tripled over the past three years, from nearly three million new electric cars sold worldwide in 2020 to 10 million last year. By the end of 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that some 14 million electric cars will be sold this year – a 35 percent increase from 2022.

Visualising the growth of the electric car industry

[AdamB]

Exponential growth flatlined, just as Lucky said. From your own data.

Ouch. Not sure what you think you meant (I know better than to pretend that high school dropout foreign MAGA kangaroo riders say about math), but exponential growth of ANY value above 0 is still exponential growth, and said growth would still take over the universe, given time. Exponential growth as growth rate approaches 0 certainly can look linear over short periods of time. Linear growth is still growth.

f(x)=a(1+r)^x where a is the starting point, r is the growth rate and x=number of time intervals. "Flatlined" seems to imply no growth, while using the word "exponential" cocks the whole thing up.

[theluckycountry]

Ha Ha HA

The Saducees are not happy with the new reality

[ralfy]

One of the reasons for marketing EVs is to deal with climate change. But around 70 pct of heavy mining equipment involves fossil fuels, together with up to half of manufacturing, and the bulk of shipping.

In addition, "green" energy has lower energy returns and quantity, and they go lower given diminishing returns affecting fossil fuels and mining.

The ones peddling them are for-profit corporations in competition with each other, which means they want exponential sales in order to make exponential revenues, from which they can derive exponential profits which they can churn back into the system to make even more exponential sales.

There's no let-up in demand for that plus fossil fuels and minerals because 70 pct of the human population want what the 30 pct have, and the 30 pct are counting on them to do so because they want ever-increasing rates in their income and returns on investment.

The catch is that all of that has to take place in a world with physical limitations.

[AdamB]

The catch is that all of that has to take place in a world with physical limitations.

The other catch is that when the world didn't end last time according to your favorite Rapture event, you had to find something else more opaque to goobly gook about.

Have you ever or do you own an EV yourself? Or instead, as with your ignorance of the geosciences and peak oil, are you just pontificating from a position lacking any economic, practical, or academic experience? Again.

[theluckycountry]

Future Of Oil Demand Is Brighter Than You’ve Been Told

Oil demand’s future is rosier than the common narrative would have you believe, according to a report released today by Energy Outlook Advisors. According to energy analyst and the report’s author Anas Alhajji, the hope that oil demand will decrease as the world transitions to clean energy is built on a lot of hype and wishful thinking.

China—the world’s largest investor in renewable energy—and India still use coal as the primary source of electricity generation. As these countries add green energy, it will have minimal effect on oil demand, if any at all, the report suggests.

Countries like China and India may have plans to continue adding solar, wind, and other clean energy sources, but economic growth continues to lap up the additions, meaning oil and even coal are unlikely to be displaced anytime soon.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futur ... -been-told

[theluckycountry]

One of the reasons for marketing EVs is to deal with climate change...

The ones peddling them are for-profit corporations in competition with each other, which means they want exponential sales in order to make exponential revenues...

When I look at the introduction and subsequent marketing of the EV, at all levels of government and industry, what I see is a classic coverup. What I see is the simple fact that the world is running out of cheap oil and the 'people' want to know what government is going to do about it. Enter the placebo, enter the EV, The Savior of our drive-through economies. It doesn't matter that it's made of oil and will consume nearly as much in it's usable life as an ice car, it takes the pressure off government, it means they don't have to work toward redesigning cities; ramping up public transport, and telling their constituents inconvenience truths like "You won't be able to drive across the nation on holiday like you once did."

The EV is no different than the recycling bin, everyone was given a bin because they protested about the ever growing pollution and waste of modern packaging sold by retail outlets. Government put the problem right back onto the people that were complaining. Gave them a bin, charged them for it of course, and allowed the corporations to continue on in their proliferate money grubbing ways. And the recycling? Well for the most part it's a total failure, especially the recycling of plastics which were and still are the main problem.

The EV was designed and built to "Shut you up" to stop you asking "What are going to do about scarcity of oil?" And guess what? It worked, people don't ask that inconvenient question anymore.

[theluckycountry]

Global EV Sales for 2022
https://www.ev-volumes.com/news/global- ... -for-2022/

In this link are charts showing the sales of BEV and PHEV (Battery Electric Vehicles & Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicles) A PHEV for those who don't know, and I suspect many who read these posts don't make the distinction, are gasoline powered cars with a battery electric component. In other words they use their battery for short trips but if charging is inconvenient or expensive, or the trip is long, they run on gasoline.

I point this out because most of the discussion here is being based on news stories that throw both BEV and PHEV into the same category. So when you see a growth rate or a sales volume and it doesn't specify a distinction between the two, know that includes the two, both electric and basically ICE. In the charts above the BYD company of China, the largest seller of these cars worldwide, sells as many hybrids as it does full electric units.

This subtle obfuscation of the truth is simply one of many that are used to make the BEV look better than it is. But if something is better than the competition you don't need to lie about it, it will sell on on it's own merits.

[kublikhan]

I point this out because most of the discussion here is being based on news stories that throw both BEV and PHEV into the same category.

I included the quotes that clearly separate out the volumes into 2 categories. here it is again incase you missed it:

Global plug-in vehicle registrations were up 50% year on year in May, reaching 1.06 million units. Plug-in vehicles, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), claimed a 16% share of the global new-car market in May. BEVs alone accounted for 11% of registrations, as more drivers around the world switched to electric drivetrains from conventional petrol and diesel models. Between January and May, plug-in vehicles took a 14% share of global new-car sales, with BEVs accounting for 10%, and PHEVs the remaining 4%.

Plug-in vehicles make up 16% of global new-car sales in May

So when you see a growth rate or a sales volume and it doesn't specify a distinction between the two, know that includes the two, both electric and basically ICE. This subtle obfuscation of the truth is simply one of many that are used to make the BEV look better than it is. But if something is better than the competition you don't need to lie about it, it will sell on on it's own merits.

Well to you, who's brain apparently can only handle 2 types of cars: EV & ICE, PHEV and ICE are grouped together in the same category. But the rest of us can recognize that the real world is more complex than that and includes various types of electrification: BEV, PHEV, full hybrids, mild hybrid, fuel cell, etc. It you want to be educated on what these all mean, I could help you by explaining it and/or providing you links such as this one:

Hybrid Electric Vehicle Technology and Types of Electric Vehicles Explained

On the other hand, if you are just here to spread FUD about BEVs and you have shut your brain off to anything outside that goal, there is no helping you. I suspect the latter.

[careinke]

Global EV Sales for 2022
https://www.ev-volumes.com/news/global- ... -for-2022/

In this link are charts showing the sales of BEV and PHEV (Battery Electric Vehicles & Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicles) A PHEV for those who don't know, and I suspect many who read these posts don't make the distinction, are gasoline powered cars with a battery electric component. In other words they use their battery for short trips but if charging is inconvenient or expensive, or the trip is long, they run on gasoline.

I point this out because most of the discussion here is being based on news stories that throw both BEV and PHEV into the same category. So when you see a growth rate or a sales volume and it doesn't specify a distinction between the two, know that includes the two, both electric and basically ICE. In the charts above the BYD company of China, the largest seller of these cars worldwide, sells as many hybrids as it does full electric units.

This subtle obfuscation of the truth is simply one of many that are used to make the BEV look better than it is. But if something is better than the competition you don't need to lie about it, it will sell on on it's own merits.

Lucky thanks for the link, it is a keeper.

Lots of good info in those graphs. The first graph shows a global adoption rate surpassing 12% this year. A 12% adoption rate has a high chance of becoming a tipping point very similar to the car versus horse adoption rate in the early 20th century. Only this time I think the adoption rate will be much faster. Note we still have horses today, just like we will still have ICE vehicles when EVs take over. But they will be mostly hobby vehicles with no real work involved.

Also that graph certainly looks parabolic to me, especially considering projected increases in production.

The second graph is a nothing burger, reflecting the last gasps of the traditional market during a recession. A minus .5 growth rate, IMHO was a blip considering all the $hit happening in 2022. I would bet 2023 will be/is much better.

I really liked the third graph! It demonstrates the dominance of BEVs over PHEVs. PHEVs are obviously on their way out. Musk plans on redoubling his production of BEV's next year. In addition lots of car manufactures are buying Musk's electronic packages for their own BEVs.

The obvious out of the box player is Toyota, who are betting their company on an electric vehicle fueled by compressed Hydrogen. I think they have a reasonable chance to pull it off. If they do, it will be a huge White Swan event. Still, Elon will profit.

Has anybody noticed Musk's companies never have an advertising/marketing department? Have you ever seen a Tesla commercial? Instead he just makes cool stuff that people want. I wonder how much that improves his ROI?

PEACE

[careinke]

I point this out because most of the discussion here is being based on news stories that throw both BEV and PHEV into the same category.

I included the quotes that clearly separate out the volumes into 2 categories. here it is again incase you missed it:

Global plug-in vehicle registrations were up 50% year on year in May, reaching 1.06 million units. Plug-in vehicles, made up of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), claimed a 16% share of the global new-car market in May. BEVs alone accounted for 11% of registrations, as more drivers around the world switched to electric drivetrains from conventional petrol and diesel models. Between January and May, plug-in vehicles took a 14% share of global new-car sales, with BEVs accounting for 10%, and PHEVs the remaining 4%.

Plug-in vehicles make up 16% of global new-car sales in May

So when you see a growth rate or a sales volume and it doesn't specify a distinction between the two, know that includes the two, both electric and basically ICE. This subtle obfuscation of the truth is simply one of many that are used to make the BEV look better than it is. But if something is better than the competition you don't need to lie about it, it will sell on on it's own merits.

Well to you, who's brain apparently can only handle 2 types of cars: EV & ICE, PHEV and ICE are grouped together in the same category. But the rest of us can recognize that the real world is more complex than that and includes various types of electrification: BEV, PHEV, full hybrids, mild hybrid, fuel cell, etc. It you want to be educated on what these all mean, I could help you by explaining it and/or providing you links such as this one:

Hybrid Electric Vehicle Technology and Types of Electric Vehicles Explained

On the other hand, if you are just here to spread FUD about BEVs and you have shut your brain off to anything outside that goal, there is no helping you. I suspect the latter.

I'm not sure why the two of you are quibbling, you both bring a lot to the table on this subject, and your info is complimentary to each other and fills out the overall picture. IMHO the snipes are not really necessary.

Maybe an approach could be a statement like "In addition to the the info you provided, here is some more info to consider."

At least you both stay on topic, unlike others who are more concerned over your nationality than your ideas.

PEACE

[kublikhan]

Maybe an approach could be a statement like "In addition to the the info you provided, here is some more info to consider."

I tried the nice guy approach. Often the information he is providing is flat out wrong. That's fine, we all make mistakes. But when I point out where he was incorrect often he would resort to personal attacks instead. The nice guy approach doesn't work with him if you provide facts contrary to his opinion.

[AdamB]

The EV was designed and built to "Shut you up" to stop you asking "What are going to do about scarcity of oil?" And guess what? It worked, people don't ask that inconvenient question anymore.

Maybe your EV was designed to shut you up...mine seems to have been designed to provide low cost, low maintenance transport to and fro around the city. The only people you appear to know are those who don't own EVs or know anything about them, so you are a parrot because...that was your chosen career path prior to dropping out of high school? Or are you afraid of EVs, what with pushing a button to start one, and those foot pedals, all too difficult for a kangaroo rider to be expected to master?

[AdamB]

Has anybody noticed Musk's companies never have an advertising/marketing department? Have you ever seen a Tesla commercial? Instead he just makes cool stuff that people want. I wonder how much that improves his ROI?
PEACE

I had noticed the first time I saw one of his original Roadsters, and didn't know what the hell the funny T on the front meant. And later on, when the wife began expressing interest after our first EV was working out so well. No advertising, years later.

I find it surprising, and agree with you about it being just cool stuff people want. And I figure we will all know that the competition is heating up when he creates one to duke it out with the big classic auto manufacturers as they began competing in earnest.

[AdamB]

Maybe an approach could be a statement like "In addition to the the info you provided, here is some more info to consider."

I remember when Tyler, a moderator here a long time ago, made the exact same suggestion to me many many moons ago now. I tried it for awhile, and it turns out that it never worked. You can't defeat a faith based system with facts and data (or even reality). With some believers, some still on this website, you can't do it 20 years after the event they claimed happened even happened...and then happened some more. The goal posts are reset, the same arguments used, and they press on, rock solid in their conviction. The lesson I learned from Tyler's advice was invaluable, was not what he obviously expected I would learn, but les me to the correct psychology profile of Apocalyticism.

This category seems to best fit the non technically oriented peak oilers perspective (and plenty of others outside the peak oil doom realm). Lucky and Armie only really use peak oil as their Rapture trigger for financial doom, but they still fit into the same psychology bucket as it were.

[theluckycountry]

Lucky thanks for the link, it is a keeper.

Lots of good info in those graphs. The first graph shows a global adoption rate surpassing 12% this year. A 12% adoption rate has a high chance of becoming a tipping point very similar to the car versus horse adoption rate in the early 20th century.

Sorry careinke, but you misread the date. That chart is not this years' but last years activity. This year adoption is way way down. As I said above, I believe we have passed peakEV where less and less will be sold going forward. This is the updated link for you

Waiting For 'Buyers To Come': Unsold Electric Vehicles Piling Up In Car Dealerships
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/waiti ... ays-report

[theluckycountry]

Here the reality is stated clearly, careinke.

DETROIT, July 12, 2023 (Reuters) - The U.S. electric vehicle market is growing, but not fast enough during the latest quarter to prevent unsold EVs from stacking up at some automakers' dealerships or to allow Tesla to avoid new price cuts, according to analysts and industry data.

Rising inventories and price-cutting could represent only a short-term pause in EV market growth. But they could be signals that boosting U.S. EV sales above the current 7% market share level will be more costly and difficult than expected, even with federal and state subsidies.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 023-07-11/

Stalling out at 7% market share. That's new vehicles SALES BTW, not all vehicles owned.

There are 290.8 million cars in the U.S. as of September 2022 There are currently a total of about 1.7 million EVs on the road in the U.S Oct 11, 2022

So wetting your pants over a 7% sales figure is irrational. But what did we see in December 1999? Everyone rushing into the IT Bubble, irrational exuberance, "it was the future" What did we see leading up to the Bitcoin top? The housing bubble peak in 2007? We have been here time and time again. Just another Bubble top boys and girls. Elon sold out tons of his Tesla stock, you're a little late to that party but get out while you still can.

https://www.zippia.com/advice/how-many-cars-in-the-us/
https://ca.style.yahoo.com/number-elect ... 00357.html