[kublikhan]

This year adoption is way way down. As I said above, I believe we have passed peakEV where less and less will be sold going forward.

Inventory levels and sales are not the same thing. Plug in sales are up 50% year over year.

Global plug-in vehicle registrations were up 50% year on year.

Plug-in vehicles make up 16% of global new-car sales in May

[theluckycountry]

Where is all the money coming from to buy these expensive EVs?

US homeowners are tapping US$9 trillion in real estate wealth

A COUPLE in Austin is using the money to fix up a rental house they own and help pay for their three young kids to attend Montessori school. A cop in Florida is playing the stock market.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/proper ... ate-wealth

how to get a tesla for free using a heloc
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/tags/ho ... g-a-heloc/
What could possibly go wrong...

[AdamB]

Where is all the money coming from to buy these expensive EVs?

Financed my first one with Ford Motor Co. Second one I borrowed only a couple of bucks and paid mostly cash. And neither was expensive, but you wouldn't know how to do that because you have no experience with using them or buying them.

How much does the purchase, food, housing and saddle cost for your kangaroo riding?

[mousepad]

Incorrect. If growth flatlines it will have, as it's name suggests, a flat line on the graph. Not a linear growth line

"flatlined" not being a mathematical term is completely irrelevant.
The point is, growth is not EXPONENTIAL anymore. As pointed out by Lucky.

And if EV sales are growing linearly it certainly does not equal peak EV sales

Thanks for agreeing that sales are not growing exponentially anymore.

When do you think will we see the transition from linear growth to actually "flatlining"?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/pe ... 188358007/

EV’s market share of all new-vehicle sales dropped to 7.3% in March, down from a record high of 8.5% in February

Sick. Even with record sales of EV, non EV are selling even more recordy. If that trend continues it will take a while for ev to gain dominance. In all honesty, this is a mystery to me. You have been posting pages after pages of gov and uni studies clearly showing how much BETTER the EV is in all aspects, from cost to safety and everything in between. Yet they don't sell. Why?

[kublikhan]

"flatlined" not being a mathematical term is completely irrelevant.
The point is, growth is not EXPONENTIAL anymore. As pointed out by Lucky.
Thanks for agreeing that sales are not growing exponentially anymore.

Adam already answered this one:

Ouch. Not sure what you think you meant (I know better than to pretend that high school dropout foreign MAGA kangaroo riders say about math), but exponential growth of ANY value above 0 is still exponential growth, and said growth would still take over the universe, given time. Exponential growth as growth rate approaches 0 certainly can look linear over short periods of time. Linear growth is still growth.

f(x)=a(1+r)^x where a is the starting point, r is the growth rate and x=number of time intervals. "Flatlined" seems to imply no growth, while using the word "exponential" cocks the whole thing up.

EV’s market share of all new-vehicle sales dropped to 7.3% in March, down from a record high of 8.5% in February. Even with record sales of EV, non EV are selling even more recordy.

You are only looking at one month of data. Year over year, the picture looks alot different. US EV sales had a market share last year of 5.8%. So far this year, US EV sales were 7.2%. US EV sales are up 48% year over year. Overall US auto sales are only up 12%.

Nearly 300,000 new electric vehicles (EVs) – full battery-electric vehicles – were sold in the U.S. in Q2, a record for any quarter and an increase of 48.4% from Q2 2022.

Electric vehicle sales continued to rise during the first half of the year to more than 557,000 vehicles, or 7.2% of all new vehicle sales. In all of last year, consumers bought just over 807,000 EVs, or 5.8% of new vehicle sales.

For the first half of the year, auto sales rose 12% over 2022 to 7.7 million, still below pre-pandemic levels.

Strong demand drives US new vehicle sales higher in the first half of the year

In all honesty, this is a mystery to me. You have been posting pages after pages of gov and uni studies clearly showing how much BETTER the EV is in all aspects, from cost to safety and everything in between. Yet they don't sell. Why?

Incorrect. I never stated EVs are better in all aspects. I have repeatedly stated there are plenty of issues with EVs: higher prices, limited range, less charging locations, charging time, repair issues, etc.

[mousepad]

Adam already answered this one:

Yes, although what Adam says is correct, it is not relevant to the question of growth no longer being exponential.

Fun question:
Let's assume the first year you sell 1000 cars. The 2nd year you sale 500 cars. The 3rd year you sell 250 cars etc etc. With each year the sales are cut in half.
For the sake of calculation let's assume you can sell fractions of a car, eg. after a few years you will sell 0.5 cars and then 0.25 etc. as you continue the trend.

Assuming further you will sell for an INFINITE amount of years. How many cars will you sell in total?
Can you proof your answer?

[theluckycountry]

Fun question:
Let's assume the first year you sell 1000 cars. The 2nd year you sale 500 cars. The 3rd year you sell 250 cars etc etc. With each year the sales are cut in half.

Wall Street Journal (Not Zerohedge)
July 17, 2023

Ford Cuts Price of F-150 Lightning Electric Truck by Up to $10,000

Ford (F -5.94% at market close) slashed prices on its electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck by up to nearly 17% Monday, the latest sign that swelling inventories and fierce price competition are softening the market for the technology the auto industry is betting its future on.
Ford Motor said Monday that the reductions, which effectively dropped the Lightning’s starting price by almost $10,000 to $49,995, were the result of lower material costs and the company having more factory output

Lower material costs? More factory output? Well if your factory is suddenly making more trucks than the public wants, then yes I guess you could spin it that way. Truth is these EV makers are in a race for the bottom. This isn't the heady days of the 2000's where computer manufacturers were able to cut costs due to innovation (and a collapse in commodity prices used to build them) And lets not forget demand! Every company, school, government department and home on the planet wanted a computer.

Tell me, how many corporations have switched their fleets to EV? Forget small municipalities, they mean nothing, that's more of a virtue signal than a practical move. Is the US school bus fleets switching? How about fleets of police cars, there are lots of them? Now Google "switched their fleet to ev" and you'll read a hundred articles about

Why should fleet operators switch to electric vehicles?

And you'll read some crap about how Amazon has a few trucks on the road in California lol. But the Tesla is a mature technology now, where are the corporate fleets of those?

Well there is Hertz, but lets face it, they buy cars people want to drive at the moment, cars that are trendy and ones that are economical. And what's a better way to test drive a tesla than to rent one for a few days. But Hertz experience was obviously not all roses.

Sep 27 2022

Last year, Hertz announced an important effort to electrify its fleet of rental cars, led by a massive purchase of 100,000 Tesla Model 3 vehicles. More recently, the company added Model Y vehicles to the order.

Ok, FF to this year

February 8, 2023

Feb 7 (Reuters) - Hertz Global Holdings Inc's (HTZ.O) rental fleet has less than half the number of Tesla (TSLA.O) cars it planned to order in 2022, its regulatory filing showed on Tuesday.

Hertz's fleet in the Americas peaked at 428,700 vehicles for the year ended Dec. 31, 2022, of which 11% were Tesla cars, the filing showed. The company had an additional 1,187 Teslas in its international fleet. That implies the company's fleet has 48,344 Tesla EVs, or less than half of the 100,000 electric cars the company decided to order from the automaker by the end of 2022.

Let's assume the first year you sell 1000 cars. The 2nd year you sale 500 cars.

Well surprise surprise, 11% at the peak last year and falling. Fleet sales are based on practicality, not impressing your neighbors, virtue-signalling, or dreaming of the future. There are millions of fleet cars on the roads of America and bugger all are EV. The Bean-counters have spoken and the public is finally waking up too. Peak EV.




https://www.wsj.com/articles/ford-cuts- ... 7-2cc21c6a
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/F?mod=chiclets

Hertz
https://electrek.co/2022/09/27/tesla-la ... e-quarter/
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 023-02-07/

[AdamB]

Fun question:
Let's assume the first year you sell 1000 cars. The 2nd year you sale 500 cars. The 3rd year you sell 250 cars etc etc. With each year the sales are cut in half.
For the sake of calculation let's assume you can sell fractions of a car, eg. after a few years you will sell 0.5 cars and then 0.25 etc. as you continue the trend.

Assuming further you will sell for an INFINITE amount of years. How many cars will you sell in total?
Can you proof your answer?

What is your point? You've just built a standard infinite decay function, in this case exponential decay, and it is used all the time in well level production. But in that case, a cumulative can be calculated because wells don't run infinitely, either rate or time truncates the series. Your requirement is that this remain an infinite series, so there is no cumulative, but it will certainly approach an asymptote that looks like an answer to the masses, so Lucky would fall for it in a second if you turned it into a graph. And be wrong based on the conditions you have placed on the exercise.

So this is like math for retards, and you are hoping Lucky takes the bait?

[Plantagenet]

I never stated EVs are better in all aspects. I have repeatedly stated there are plenty of issues with EVs: higher prices, limited range, less charging locations, charging time, repair issues, etc.

You left out the spontaneous combustion problem and the higher insurance costs issues. Even more disappointing, you left out the fact that EVs are less sustainable then ICE vehicles, as demonstrated by the fact that EVs are being removed from service and crushed at higher rates then ICE vehicles.

It’s as though you learned nothing and remembered nothing from all our past discussions of these very important issues.

Cheers!

[mousepad]

What is your point?

There's no point. It's just for fun. I find the result interesting. I found it so fascinating that this math problem stuck with me after school for 30 years. Do you know the answer?

[AdamB]

I never stated EVs are better in all aspects. I have repeatedly stated there are plenty of issues with EVs: higher prices, limited range, less charging locations, charging time, repair issues, etc.

You left out the spontaneous combustion problem and the higher insurance costs issues.

You mean ONLY higher insurance costs, as your BEV and ICE machines decide to burst into flames for one reason or another far more often than EVs.

It’s as though you learned nothing and remembered nothing from all our past discussions of these very important issues.

Indeed. Surprising that you, suffering from the same disease, even remembered it yourself.

[AdamB]

What is your point?

There's no point. It's just for fun. I find the result interesting. I found it so fascinating that this math problem stuck with me after school for 30 years. Do you know the answer?

2000

[theluckycountry]

"EVs are here to save the car industry, not the planet, that is crystal clear," said outspoken urban planning advocate Jason Slaughter

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ev-tra ... -1.6667698

Glitches in the Matrix.

[kublikhan]

You left out the spontaneous combustion problem and the higher insurance costs issues. Even more disappointing, you left out the fact that EVs are less sustainable then ICE vehicles, as demonstrated by the fact that EVs are being removed from service and crushed at higher rates then ICE vehicles.

It’s as though you learned nothing and remembered nothing from all our past discussions of these very important issues.

Cheers!

You just described yourself perfectly. You learn and remember nothing. Despite the fact that there have been many, many posts about ICE and hybrids catching fire at a higher rate than EVs, you ignore all of them and repeat your same tired mantras:

Fully electric vehicles were deemed far safer than both hybrids and gas cars; they are far less likely to catch fire, with just 25.1 fires per 100,000 sales. That’s compared to 3,474 hybrid fires and 1,529 ICE fires per 100,000 sales respectively.

Study: Hybrids, ICE Cars Far More Likely Than EVs To Catch Fire

Even more disappointing, you left out the fact that EVs are less sustainable then ICE vehicles, as demonstrated by the fact that EVs are being removed from service and crushed at higher rates then ICE vehicles.

Oh you mean the 1.4% difference in salvage rates betweens EVs and ICE? The difference you spent days trying to do mental gymnastics to show that this figure was actually an order of magnitude bigger than that and failed? But I guess you forgot about all of that because here you are spouting the same kind of BS, again.

Yes, thank you for reposting that data. Of course we discussed this issue earlier.

Using the numbers you post would get you a snapshot of the current carbon differential between the current ICE and EV vehicle fleets, but I want to know what is the actual difference in scrappage rate between ICE and EV vehicle fleets when you control for age, i.e. to really understand and compare the absolute EV scrappage rate with the absolute ICE scrappage rate you have to norm the data to correct for the wildly different average ages of EV vehicles vs. ICE vehicles on the road because the EV fleet is much much much younger than the ICE fleet.

New cars typically get scrapped at lower rates than older cars, because cars tend to wear out as they get older. The fact that the much much younger EV fleet actually has a HIGHER rate of scrappage, even though almost none of them have worn out yet is remarkable and a bad omen as the scrappage rates for EVs will almost certainly go up even higher as the EV fleet ages.

The current average age of the current (mainly ICE) US auto fleet is 12.5 years. I don't know what the average age of EV vehicles on the road is, but since EV sales are rocketing upward I'll bet most of the EVs on the road are probably only 1-3 years old, so I would guess the average age of the EV fleet is only ca. 1-2 years....and yet the fact that as a group the almost new EVs on the road today have a HIGHER scrappage rate then ICE vehicles who average 12.5 years in age is really amazingly bad for the EVs, especially when we were promised that EVs would be more sustainable then ICE vehicles.

Presumably as EV vehicles become more and more common on the roads in the future, their scrappage rate will tend to increase to even HIGHER rates as the EV vehicle fleet gets older, and so the discrepancy with ICE vehicles will presumably get even larger.

What I'm wondering is just how high a rate will EVs be scrapped at when they become comparable in age to the current ICE vehicle population, i.e. what the is ACTUAL different in scrappage rates when you control for age.....

The data is already adjusted for age. They were only counting BEVs and ICE sold from 2013 to 2022, just vehicles sold in that decade. They were not fleetwide numbers.

According to S&P Global Mobility analysis, of the nearly 2.3 million BEVs registered in the US from 2013 to 2022, about 2.12 million are still on the road today—about 6.6% have left the fleet. When it comes to other fuel types excluding BEVs, of the roughly 158 million sold in the same timeframe, are around 149.8 million vehicles on the road today—reflecting that 5.2% have left the fleet over the time frame.

S&P Global Mobility: average age of light vehicles in US hits record high 12.5 years

[theluckycountry]

In a real sense it doesn't matter how often a certain type of car catches fire, what matters is what happens after it catches fire. It the case of an EV it's total destruction in about one minute and the occupants have about 30 seconds to exit the vehicle and get far away when they see the first whiff of smoke. And if that smoke is internal to the car then your problems are even worse because it's super toxic. EVs should come with ejection seats!

"The power didn't work, the door wouldn't open, the windows wouldn't come down."
Tesla owner kicks out window to escape as car spontaneously ignites at traffic light. Imagine if it was a mother and child

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQxm6n7SdvE

Experts tell the ugly truth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWvI1daNils

[AdamB]

In a real sense it doesn't matter how often a certain type of car catches fire, what matters is what happens after it catches fire. It the case of an EV it's total destruction in about one minute and the occupants have about 30 seconds to exit the vehicle and get far away when they see the first whiff of smoke. And if that smoke is internal to the car then your problems are even worse because it's super toxic. EVs should come with ejection seats!

And your experience with EVs and these kinds of problems is....what? Zero. 371k kilometers on mine...none of the things you would like to think happens with them.

Tell us about something you have experience with....how many kangaroos do you keep around for trips to the store and such? Have any of yours ever caught fire?

Experts tell the ugly truth

I agree...so tell us about your experience riding the kangaroos. It isn't as though you know anything about EVs.

[Plantagenet]

In a real sense it doesn't matter how often a certain type of car catches fire, what matters is what happens after it catches fire. It the case of an EV it's total destruction in about one minute and the occupants have about 30 seconds to exit the vehicle and get far away when they see the first whiff of smoke. And if that smoke is internal to the car then your problems are even worse because it's super toxic. EVs should come with ejection seats!

"The power didn't work, the door wouldn't open, the windows wouldn't come down."
Tesla owner kicks out window to escape as car spontaneously ignites at traffic light. Imagine if it was a mother and child

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQxm6n7SdvE

Experts tell the ugly truth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWvI1daNils

Exactly right.

It’s bad that kublikhan continues to obfuscate on this issue. But the truth is in the data. Its easy to see that car fires and repair rates and scrappage rates for EVs are actually ARE a larger problem then for ICE cars just by looking at the insurance rates for EVs versus those for comparable ICE cars.

Insurance companies are charging FAR MORE to insure EVs.

And even if Kublikhan is too dishonest to admit it, the higher insurance rates for EVs are set by insurance companies because EVs are damaged and totaled and scrapped at higher rates then ICE vehicles.

Cheers!

[kublikhan]

Exactly right.

It’s bad that kublikhan continues to obfuscate on this issue. But the truth is in the data. Its easy to see that car fires and repair rates and scrappage rates for EVs are actually ARE a larger problem then for ICE cars just by looking at the insurance rates for EVs versus those for comparable ICE cars.

Insurance companies are charging FAR MORE to insure EVs.

And even if Kublikhan is too dishonest to admit it, the higher insurance rates for EVs are set by insurance companies because EVs are damaged and totaled and scrapped at higher rates then ICE vehicles.

Cheers!

You guys already tried this argument too. Insurance company studies show EVs have lower overall losses and lower injury rates compared to ICE vehicles:

[theluckycountry]

And even if Kublikhan is too dishonest to admit it, the higher insurance rates for EVs are set by insurance companies because EVs are damaged and totaled and scrapped at higher rates then ICE vehicles.

Cheers!

I am afraid he's just parroting the marketing pitch of the auto makers, all of which has been debunked now, by leading Universities and engineers.

The real deal breaker for the consumer, aside from the ridiculous up-front cost for a car with a 10 year lifespan, is that they have a higher real-world refueling cost than ICE cars. The percentage of owners that have their own home and can install a charging system and a solar system to cut this cost is small compared to the average car driver who doesn't and will have to rely on charging stations. Expensive coal powered electricity.

It's why there will never be mass uptake across the world. Go to any city and you'll see the streets jammed with parked cars outside houses, and then there are the millions who live in apartment blocks. The EV industry and it's mouthpieces conveniently ignore this reality. 100% EV for new car sales by 2035. That's just political code for "we're running out of oil and you won't be driving in 2035 unless you're rich.

[AdamB]

And even if Kublikhan is too dishonest to admit it, the higher insurance rates for EVs are set by insurance companies because EVs are damaged and totaled and scrapped at higher rates then ICE vehicles.
Cheers!

I am afraid he's just parroting the marketing pitch of the auto makers, all of which has been debunked now, by leading Universities and engineers.

Yeah, that isn't what it is called when data and charts are presented making the point. As opposed to a kangaroo riders opinion on a vehicle type that they have no experience with, but just don't like for some reason.

The percentage of owners that have their own home and can install a charging system and a solar system to cut this cost is small compared to the average car driver who doesn't and will have to rely on charging stations.

Every EV on my block charges at home. While in a third world country like yours folks might have a tough time with reliable electricity, it mostly isn't a problem here in the land of exceptional.

Expensive coal powered electricity.

3 of the 6 EVs on my block have solar panels supplying more than a fair amount of the fuel for their cars, and the local utility is only about 25% coal fired at this point. Which hasn't been expensive as of late because natural gas fired generation has been eating their lunch.

Any other ignorant Third World ideas you'd like to discuss?

It's why there will never be mass uptake across the world.

As opposed to "there has already been mass uptake"...let the data do the talking when the Third World kangaroo rider is doing the posting...
Global electric car sales’ ‘explosive growth’ – in numbers
Don't you have a New Zealand cousin or someone in a real country who can teach you about using the internet to find information and stuff?