[theluckycountry]

[Newfie]

If anyone here is open to extending “vehicle” to cover a sailboat then I have a nifty link.

It is a young couple, trained as architects, who have an electric sailboat and are pushing the electric envelope to sail as far North as possible.

This video is from a couple of years ago, I have only watched a few more videos but intend to get caught up.

At this point they have been electric sailing 7 years. This will he their 3rd motor. They are still trying to achieve sufficient regeneration while sailing to recharge their battery banks.

They are in Norway above the Arctic Circle heading North. They are great videographers and I find the scenery interesting to compare to here, further South but actually colder.

Anyway, you may find it interesting.

https://youtu.be/HouwSrzKvKU

[Plantagenet]

Yo Newfie:

Thank you for the link to the "SAILING UMA" youtube videos.

First you turned me on to Peter Zeihan and now sailing videos.

I've watched a few of the UMA videos they made about 5 years ago when they were in the Caribbean. Oooo that looks like fun.



Ohmigosh.....and the first mate on the UMA looks great in her bikini.

I've only made two trips to the Caribbean....one to Cuba right after it opened up to US tourism, and another one years earlier to Monserrat when the volcano was erupting and I was invited in to consult on their teeny tiny problem in how to deal with utter devastation.

I've always been curious about all the other islands I haven't seen, and Its fun to get a little peek through the SAILING UMA videos. I just watched the Martinique one where they met up with another young couple who make youtube videos called "SAILING MISCHIEF."

How about you....do you make any YouTube videos about your sailing adventures?

Cheers!

[Newfie]

Plant if you ever saw me know a managing you would not ask if I do youTube videos!

We spent a fewndays in Monseratt, interesting g place but you really need a vehicle. As you know it is very vertically oriented.

I would recommend Saba. VERY interesting island, even steeper than Mjntseratt. There are no safe anchorages because the bottom drops off so fast. We took a moori g in 70' of water and then the dink around to the dock. But again a car is needed.

As a nature lover I would recommend Dominica. Very many volcanos, none real active. They have a large " boiling lake" which is a 6 hour hike if you have good legs. There are many waterfalls and volcanic features and beaches. Just don't stay in the capital city Roseau, stay in Portsmouth. There you will get the true local vibe. Lots of tour guides as it is the principal location for cruisers. It is I.HO the best of the Eastern.Carib.

[theluckycountry]

Getting back on topic.


Hurricane Idalia Aftermath: Saltwater Exposure Causes 'Thermal Runaway' In Flooded Electric Vehicles

This is an unfortunate drawback to EVs but it begs the broader question, How safe will they be in beach environments, in areas where the roads are salted? Over time the salt, aided by moisture in the air, could work its way into packs. These battery packs are all located close to the road so any travel through even shallow salt water would pose a potential danger. The big thing now is the EV 4x4, which users often take fishing, on the beach...

"If you own a hybrid or electric vehicle that has come into contact with saltwater due to recent flooding within the last 24 hours, it is crucial to relocate the vehicle from your garage without delay," a Facebook post by Palm Harbor Fire Rescue reads. "Saltwater exposure can trigger combustion in lithium-ion batteries. If possible, transfer your vehicle to higher ground," the post continued.

Video taken by James McLynas shows another burnt-out Tesla in Pinellas Park.
"Hurricane flooded Tesla Bursts into flames while being towed to the storage lot. Driver picked up the flood damaged Tesla from a storm damaged home and was towing it back when it burst into flames

What's ironic is that government and climate doomsayers say decarbonizing the transportation sector with EVs will save the planet from imminent destruction (remember Greta said the world would end in 2023), but these unproven vehicles are only sparking more headaches.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hurri ... d-electric

[Plantagenet]

Hurricane Idalia Aftermath: Saltwater Exposure Causes 'Thermal Runaway' In Flooded Electric Vehicles

This is an unfortunate drawback to EVs but it begs the broader question, How safe will they be in beach environments, in areas where the roads are salted? Over time the salt, aided by moisture in the air, could work its way into packs. These battery packs are all located close to the road so any travel through even shallow salt water would pose a potential danger. The big thing now is the EV 4x4, which users often take fishing, on the beach...

Thanks, Lucky. Thats a really good point.

I was appalled that the EVs were exploding after the hurricane because its more evidence that the claim that EVs are "sustainable" is a big lie. The EVs were supposed to last forever because there are so few moving parts in the electric engines, but if they are going to explode when they encounter salty or when an EV scrapes the curb or gets in a minor accident, and if new EVs are going to get scrapped after minor accidents, then EVs aren't sustainable at all.

And now you've brought up the issue of salting the roads. I live in Alaska and we've got salt on our roads....and the salt melts the ice and creates icy puddles of salty water that splash up on cars. It doesn't seem like an EV splashing through a salty puddle is immediately going to explode....but how about after several years of splashing through salty puddles? How about after the salt dries on the car (which it does) and creates a salt crust on the EV battery pack?


In snowy areas dumptrucks drive around dumping salt on the snowy roads....which creates a lot of salt water on the roads.....and contact with salt water is known to make EVs spontaneously combust.

You've raised a very important issue here Lucky. Lets keep an eye out and see if news reports start to appear about EVs mysteriously blowing up after driving on icy salted roads.

THANKS AGAIN.

[theluckycountry]

Thanks plant. I think is you take a skeptical approach to things you can see these issues but if all you wear are rose colored glasses you only ever see what you want to see. I take this approach to most things in life, I look for the problems, ignoring the marketing, and if it proves itself it gets my money. I was thinking of getting a Nissan Leaf a few years ago, don't ask me why, I think it was to reduce fuel bills but mine are negligible anyway.

I read broadly for some weeks and discovered the limitations, the degradation of the range after only 5 or 6 years, the problematic charging. If I had known then about the spontaneous combustion problem I would have dismissed them out of hand. I mean who wants to risk losing their house hey! I don't care what the probabilities say, one in a million would be enough for me to dismiss the idea.

I keep a lot of gasoline in my attached carport, 180L typically. But it's in sealed steel jerrycans that have a 100 year history of being safe, even bouncing around warzones. But today the typical person is afraid of gasoline and would be afraid to store any quantity of it. Use common sense, take precautions, inspect your cans and keep them rust free and you're fine. But with an EV you're at the mercy of an Asian factory, of hundreds of workers getting everything "Right". One bad cell, one faulty circuit and you lose your home or die in an inferno on the side of the freeway.

Jul 10, 2023
Currently, the administration estimates about 3 million of the cars in the U.S. are electric, which is approximately one percent of the total.
https://8billiontrees.com/carbon-offset ... in-the-us/

3 million cars plant. And how many catastrophic fires have we seen. Far too many for my tastes.
Another story says "There's a car fire roughly every five minutes in America. The vast majority of them never make the news" That's because many are arson no doubt. I have seen many burned out cars in my life and many were caused by arson yet you try and find reliable statistics on that!

No, Millions of Cars Are Not Catching Fire Every Year
A New York Times story about U.S. car fires references a study that gets the frequency wrong by a factor of at least 60.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a4016 ... tatistics/

Many ICE cars are torched in riots, or just burned on the street for the hell of it. Many many cars used in the commission of crimes are torched as well. I wouldn't be at all surprised if this was one of the major cause of ICE fires.

[theluckycountry]

The EV plateau is coming. It's bad news for companies like Ford and Tesla

...But as the industry runs out of enthusiastic early adopters, a plateau for the segment is on the horizon, some analysts say. The first signs of that came last month when Ford dealers told Insider they had to turn away Mustang Mach-E allocations. (Ford later adjusted its EV production goals to reflect the change in demand growth).

"The spectacular growth we've seen over the last few years cannot be sustained. It's just not possible," said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions. "The further up this growth curve we go, the harder it's going to be to get to the next level."

This is standard with all technologies, the only difference between them is the level of adoption before the plateau (the peak of adoption) With the mobile phone it was massive, for the electric kettle the same. What will it be for the EV? We don't know as yet, but I can't see it going much higher than it is now myself, for all the reasons brought up in this thread to date.

If the late majority came in last year before the subsidies began to be removed globally we could be almost there. But then there is another factor to consider. Nearly everyone who ever bought a mobile phone or electric kettle embraced the technology and went on to make it a part of their lives. They never looked back. Will that be the case with the EV? Or will there be a lot of buyer remorse, and a switch back to cheaper more practical to refuel ICE cars by many?


chart unrelated to EV adoption, for illustrative purposes only.

The touted story for the past several years was that EVs would have a similar adoption peak to that of ICE cars, full replacement basically, that we would all be driving them eventually. But the slowdown we are seeing in sales does not reflect that. To be fair there are other inventions that suffered drawbacks to their curves as the graph below depicts. I think it's understandable though that the intervention of the Great depression and WWII may have had something to do with many of those setbacks. Especially the automobile, which many could not afford due to the depression and which were basically not manufactured during WWII.


It's clear from the chart that it was made some decades ago, before the mass uptake of the products on the LHS.

Article: https://www.businessinsider.com/ev-elec ... ion-2023-8

[theluckycountry]

A Happy ending story, and a video of a virtual miracle in auto repair.

Rivian R1T Fender Bender Fixed For A Fraction Of $41K Repair Estimate
The Rivian R1T is quite different from the majority of internal combustion pickups out there, not only because it has an all-electric powertrain but also because it has a hybrid construction that mates a unibody shell to a skateboard platform that’s similar to a traditional ladder frame chassis.

https://insideevs.com/news/690540/rivia ... -fraction/

[theluckycountry]

EV market is grinding to a halt

I called it, PeakEV, first quarter 2023

9 Oct 2023

Ben Wright claimed that the electric car industry may be facing a permanent decline amid concerns over mounting costs. He said: "Car insurers are the latest sector to back away from electric vehicles, after the industry decided that underwriters don’t have the knowledge to insure the new models, often fitted with expensive upgrades.

"Meanwhile, the cost and availability of parts is also affecting insurance premiums, causing some annual costs to rocket to £5,000 and some insurers to withdraw from the EV market entirely.
Similarly, Ben cited potential issues with the National Grid if the UK rapidly transitioned to fully electric driving. "An increasing number of battery-powered vehicles... will likely lead to issues with grid capacity.

"These are not insurmountable but the fixes – either new smart grid technology or a huge expansion of existing infrastructure – will be extremely expensive." Not only do network improvements come at a cost, but they also bring disruption in the community. It comes after drivers were given an urgent warning over EV parking rules that could cost them hundreds.

Meanwhile, a motorist who tested a major car firm's new electric model said it felt "cheap" and made irritating dinging sounds.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/motors/2434247 ... ding-halt/



EV sales falling well short of targets forced on manufacturers from 2024 as buyers steer clear
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/car ... clear.html

Second-hand electric car prices drop 25% in a year
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/seco ... -737xlvk3p

[kublikhan]

EV market is grinding to a halt

I called it, PeakEV, first quarter 2023

Incorrect. The EV market did not peak 1st quarter 2023, not even close. EV sales are going strong:

Global EV sales continue strong. A total of 6 million new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) were delivered during the first half of 2023, an increase of +40%. 4,27 million were pure electric BEVs and 1,76 million were PHEVs. EV shares continued to climb in all markets. BEVs (10 %) and PHEVs (4,1 %) stood for 14,1 % of global light vehicle sales at the close of H1, compared to 11,3 % in 2022 H1.

Global EV Sales for 2023 H1

Global plugin vehicle registrations were up 45% in August 2023 compared to August 2022, rising to 1,238,00 units. In the end, plugins represented 18% share of the overall auto market (with a 13% BEV share alone). This means that the global automotive market is firmly in the Electric Disruption Zone*.

World EV Sales Now Equal 18% Of World Auto Sales

Chinese electric vehicle (EV) sales surged in September, underscoring a booming market that has held steady despite the country's recent economic woes.

Prominent Chinese EV makers such as XPeng (XPEV), Nio (NIO), and Li Auto (LI) reported surging EV sales last month. XPeng said it had delivered 15,310 Smart EVs last month, which was up 12% from August and 81% year-over-year.1 Nio delivered 15,641 EVs, up almost 44% from a year ago.2 Li Auto's sales, at just over 36,000, more than tripled from last year, while deliveries for the third quarter nearly quadrupled.

Plug-in electric vehicles accounted for almost 40% of Chinese auto sales last month, while fully electric ones accounted for just over a quarter.

Chinese EV Sales Surged in September, Underscoring a Thriving Market

A total of 126,294 plug-in vehicles (99,089 BEVs and 27,205 PHEVs) were sold during August 2023 in the United States, up 71.5% from the sales in August 2022.

Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates

[theluckycountry]

Global EV sales continue strong. A total of 6 million new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) were delivered during the first half of 2023

Why are you including figures with ICE vehicles in them? Plug in hybrids are just gasoline powered cars with a little battery pack, they are nice, very trendy, but if you're going to burn gasoline just burn gasoline, don't waste your money on a complex vehicle with Two operating systems.

Big flashy headline
Global EV Sales In May 2023: More Than 1 Million Plug-In Cars Sold Again
https://insideevs.com/news/677114/globa ... s-may2023/
then, BEVs 11% share PHEVs: 5% share. So half of the reported EV sales are gasoline cars.


But this is the future of the EV industry isn't it. As people become aware of the limitations of EVs they are moving to gasoline hybrids. I don't blame you for reporting fake data kub, it's basically all that's out there now. But where is the demand coming from? The US, which is just writing subsidy checks and adding it to the 33 Trillion in debt, and China.

China, the nation that built and sold untold apartments in flashy ghost cities that are now crumbling. China that built millions of bicycles for ride-sharing that ended up in scrap piles. If you remove these two nations with their manipulated demand you'll find that the rest of the world has net declining sales

[kublikhan]

Why are you including figures with ICE vehicles in them? Plug in hybrids are just gasoline powered cars with a little battery pack, they are nice, very trendy, but if you're going to burn gasoline just burn gasoline, don't waste your money on a complex vehicle with Two operating systems.

There are various types of just electrified vehicles. Not 2 types of vehicles you seem to be trying to dumb it down to: "BEV OR IT'S AN ICE!" There are battery electric vehicles(BEVs), which are powered solely by a battery. There are Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicles(PHEVs), which are powered by a combination of gasoline and electricity. And there are hybrid electric vehicles, which are powered solely by gasoline however they still have dual drive trains: ICE and electric. All of them have their pros and cons. If you don't like hybrids or plugin hybrids because they have dual drive trains, that's your prerogative. However that doesn't change the fact that it is an electrified vehicle.

Big flashy headline
Global EV Sales In May 2023: More Than 1 Million Plug-In Cars Sold Again
https://insideevs.com/news/677114/globa ... s-may2023/
then, BEVs 11% share PHEVs: 5% share. So half of the reported EV sales are gasoline cars.

Incorrect. 70% of EV sales were BEV, 30% were PHEV:

some 1,057,509 new passenger plug-in electric cars were registered globally in May

Plug-in car registrations last month:

BEVs: about *727,000 and 11% share
PHEVs: about *330,000 and 5% share
Total: 1,057,509 (up 50% year-over-year) and 16% share

Global EV Sales In May 2023: More Than 1 Million Plug-In Cars Sold Again

But this is the future of the EV industry isn't it. As people become aware of the limitations of EVs they are moving to gasoline hybrids.

You are incorrect, as usual. Plugin hybrids are losing market share to BEVs, not gaining it:

In 2022, PHEV sales made up 27% of all Plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales, down from 29% in 2021. Although their sales volumes continued to rise, their share of the PEV mix is falling as a result of reduced incentives and better BEV offerings.

Global Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Market Report 2023: Rapid Adoption of EVs Points to Sustained and Substantial Growth

US sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in 2022 are expected to decline to less than 20%, the lowest share of total electric vehicle (BEV + PHEV) sales since 2011. Through three quarters in 2022 the PHEV share of total EV sales dropped to 20% from 26.9% for the full-year 2021. The previous full year low for PHEVs was 21.3% in 2020. The high mark for the PHEV percentage of total EV sales was in 2012 at 74.6%, when there were only nine EVs available on the market and the Chevrolet Volt PHEV and Toyota Prius PHV were the top two-selling EVs and which accounted for 69% of all EV sales.

PHEV Sales Drop to 20% of Total EV US Sales Through Q3 2022

The age of the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) that can charge from a power point and fill up at the service station appears to be drawing to an end, at least in Australia. The latest industry figures show EVs accounted for a record 9.4 per cent of new car sales in June, up from 1.7 per cent a year earlier. A diminishing fraction of these EVs are plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), which switch to burning petrol or diesel when their battery's charge is nearly depleted. PHEVs once dominated EV sales, but are now being rapidly displaced by fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs).

The rise and fall of the plug-in hybrid
When they arrived in Australia about 10 years ago, PHEVs were marketed as a cleaner form of an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV). They also side-stepped some of the perceived problems with BEVs, such as driving range and charging infrastructure. "There wasn't enough confidence in BEVs in the past." As the graph above shows, in 2018 PHEVs accounted for half of EV sales. Since then, BEVs have raced ahead. One reason for this has been that BEVs have gotten better. Range and charging times have improved, prices have gone down and more models have entered the market. "A lot of people have become sceptical of PHEVs." PHEV sales are still rising, but their market share is falling sharply.

Plug-in hybrids once dominated EV sales. Now their market share is tanking

I don't blame you for reporting fake data kub, it's basically all that's out there now.

You don't have a leg to stand on when it comes to throwing out accusations of fake data. Everything I posted was the truth. You on the other hand straight up lied about the EV sales in first quarter 2023. Peaked in Q1 2023 was it? Well it took about 5 seconds to prove you had yet again made crap up.

But where is the demand coming from? The US, which is just writing subsidy checks and adding it to the 33 Trillion in debt, and China.

China, the nation that built and sold untold apartments in flashy ghost cities that are now crumbling. China that built millions of bicycles for ride-sharing that ended up in scrap piles. If you remove these two nations with their manipulated demand you'll find that the rest of the world has net declining sales

Incorrect, as usual. Here are they top 5 countries by EV penetration:

The top 5 countries with the highest share of EV sales are Norway (all-electric vehicles made up 80% of passenger vehicle sales in 2022), Iceland (41%), Sweden (32%), the Netherlands (24%) and China (22%), according to our analysis.

Falling costs and advancing technology have made it possible for EV sales to accelerate faster today than in the past. Our analysis of the International Energy Agency’s EV Data Explorer shows that countries where EV sales reached 1% in the past five years have grown at a faster rate than countries that did so earlier.

For example, India’s EV sales grew from 0.4% to 1.5% in just one year from 2021 to 2022. That's about three times faster than the global average, which took three years to grow from 0.4% EV sales in 2015 to 1.6% in 2018. Israel jumped from 0.6% EV sales to 8.2% in just two years, from 2020 to 2022. It took the world more than five years to achieve that much growth, from 0.5% in 2016 to 6.2% in 2021.

These Countries Are Adopting Electric Vehicles the Fastest

EV shares continued to climb in all markets.

Global EV Sales for 2023 H1

[mousepad]

The top 5 countries with the highest share of EV sales are Norway

Damn, with more than 20k of subsidies per car in norway they practically giving away EVs for free.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/133 ... -purchase/

How much subsidies was needed to make the model T disrupt the market? Or the computer? Or the cell phone? EV fanbois, what a fascinating species.

[kublikhan]

Damn, with more than 20k of subsidies per car in norway they practically giving away EVs for free.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/133 ... -purchase/

How much subsidies was needed to make the model T disrupt the market? Or the computer? Or the cell phone? EV fanbois, what a fascinating species.

I have already said on multiple occasions, and to you specifically, that the push for EVs is not coming from market forces but from government mandates and subsidies. But that doesn't matter to you, because you just want to get your jollies off trolling me.

The push for EVs is not coming from market forces. If it were, they never would have needed subsidies or mandates in the first place. They are being pushed for other reasons such as lowering global co2 emissions, reducing FF imports, reducing local air pollution, etc.

[mousepad]

I have already said on multiple occasions, and to you specifically, that the push for EVs is not coming from market forces but from government mandates and subsidies. But that doesn't matter to you, because you just want to get your jollies off trolling me.

That is very true, kub.
But I have also mentioned to you many times that a "disruptive" technology, which YOU and your studies claim is WAY cheaper and WAY better than existing, should be able to carry its own weight. Such a technology don't need no stinking subsidy. It DISRUPTS. It cannot be stopped. It steamrolls everything in sight. That's the opposite of EV. EV must be PUSHED. And not a little, but hard.

[kublikhan]

That is very true, kub.
But I have also mentioned to you many times that a "disruptive" technology, which YOU and your studies claim is WAY cheaper and WAY better than existing, should be able to carry its own weight. Such a technology don't need no stinking subsidy. It DISRUPTS. It cannot be stopped. It steamrolls everything in sight. That's the opposite of EV. EV must be PUSHED. And not a little, but hard.

Incorrect. I have never said EVs are WAY cheaper, or WAY better. In fact I have repeatedly said the opposite:

The Tesla battery pack costs somewhere between $21,000 and $30,000. And that's with a maximum range of about 220 miles. 15% of that is emergency reserves, so figure 187 mile normal range, assuming slow, sedate driving. If you wanted a range that can compete with ICE cars, you would have to double the battery's capacity. That would put the cost of the battery pack alone at somewhere around $42,000 - $60,000. Because of prohibitive costs like this, sacrifices are made and we are left with a cut down driving range. Even with this smaller range, Tesla estimated a 225 mile range(191 miles not counting emergency reserve) Model S sedan would still cost around $60,000. I don't see how you can say that is cost competitive with an ICE car.

And the Volt is subsidized for $13G's, bringing it down to $27G in this case. More expensive than a Cruze? Sure. And which one will still get you to work when there isn't any gasoline around? The Volt of course.

$10 grand more expensive than a comparable ICE, AFTER $13 grand in subsidies, does not to me say "cheap and easy transportation". That's not even getting into the billions of dollars of federal money spent on the Volt's development.
...
Lets say that again, the volt is two and a half times more expensive than it's ICE counterpart. The fact that taxpayers are subsidizing a portion of this bill does not change this fact. I am not going to spend 2.5 times as much for an electric version of an ICE car. Apparently I am not alone in this feeling:

The Chevrolet Volt hasn’t exactly taken off as expected, with only about 4,000 U.S. sales so far, but that’s OK with GM’s top brass, according to USA Today.

That’s because the Volt acts as an important catalyst for the Chevrolet Cruze, one of the top-selling vehicles in the country since its launch last fall. Chevy has sold 187,524 Cruzes year-to-date through September.

Putting aside my unwillingness to pay, how about people's inability to pay in this depressed economy. Telling people their next car purchase will be 2.5 times as expensive because they should go electric, many might simply say "I cannot afford that". If gasoline prices skyrocket or there are shortages/rationing, it would be more productive in that case to explore alternative means of transportation: curtailing car trips, Mass transit, car pooling, bicycling, or god forbid: walking. Expecting people to be able to pony up that much cash for something beyond their reach, you might as well just say "let them eat cake".

Tesla Motors’ Devastating Design Problem

More and more car companies are looking at the EV market and concluding they can't do what you are asking: make an affordable EV car with the range, performance, comfort, etc that consumers demand. Many are giving up or going bankrupt instead.

battery packs are the most expensive component in an EV, meaning that in the case of vehicles with non-repairable packs, insurance companies are sometimes writing those vehicles off as a total loss in the event of an accident, which also causes insurance rates to rise.

Additionally, these non-repairable battery packs often wind up in scrap yards, which essentially defeats the purpose of the eco-friendly nature of EVs in the first place. “We’re buying electric cars for sustainability reasons,” said Matthew Avery, research director at automotive risk intelligence company Thatcham Research. “But an EV isn’t very sustainable if you’ve got to throw the battery away after a minor collision.” This is true of certain models such as the most recent version of the Tesla Model Y, which utilizes new 4680 cells as part of its structural battery pack. Munro has said that this model has “zero repairability.”

EVs have their issues. They cost more($34k for the EV Kona vs $22k for the ICE version), have less range, have less refueling stations compared to ICE, take longer to charge, L2 charger is extra, fires harder to put out, weight more, Tesla repair costs are higher, etc. There are plenty of legitimate issues with EVs. I really don't see why you guys feel the need to post BS about EVs that can be debunked in 30 seconds when there is a laundry list of legitimate issues of EVs.

[mousepad]

Incorrect. I have never said EVs are WAY cheaper, or WAY better. In fact I have repeatedly said the opposite:

I didn't realize you've seen the light. I'm glad you did. I thought you're a hopeless fanboi. I was wrong. Welcome to the club of EV sceptics. I'm glad we have you on our side.

Now we have to achieve the same on your opinion of solar/wind and we have you grounded in reality again in no time. I have high hopes!

[kublikhan]

I didn't realize you've seen the light. I'm glad you did. I thought you're a hopeless fanboi. I was wrong. Welcome to the club of EV sceptics. I'm glad we have you on our side.

Now we have to achieve the same on your opinion of solar/wind and we have you grounded in reality again in no time. I have high hopes!

I wouldn't say I'm an EV skeptic. More like cautiously hopeful that these issues can be worked out. We have already seen progress being made over the last 1-2 decades on many of these issues: EV ranges are longer, the price gap between EVs and ICE are not as extreme as they once were, and now that traditional auto manufacturers are getting in the game, you have more options so you don't have to pay the Tesla premium on their ridiculous repair costs. It seems likely this kind of progress will continue into the future.

Other issues are more difficult to solve, like the higher difficulty of extinguishing lithium battery fires and the fire reignition problem. Sure, there are solid state batteries and sodium ion batteries where this is less of an issue, but those technologies are either still on the drawing board or are just now entering the EV market and are still a long way from challenging the dominance of lithium ion. So those issues won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

Other issues might actually be getting worse in the short term, like insurance costs. Insurance rates are rising faster on EVs than on ICE. And growing losses at some EV makers like Ford, which just reported a $4.5 billion loss in EVs:

Ford Motor Company announced it is projected to lose a whopping $4.5 billion from electric vehicles (EVs) this year, up from the previous projected loss of $3 billion. The projected $4.5 billion loss is over twice as much as Model e's $2.1 billion loss in 2022.

"Ford Model e is an EV startup within Ford," Ford CFO John Lawler previously told reporters in March. "As everyone knows, EV startups lose money while they invest in capabilities, develop knowledge, build volume and gain share."

Ford set to lose $4.5 billion on electric vehicles this year

I have much the same feelings for renewables, cautiously hopeful. However I have long felt that they were not the panacea many made them out to be.

CA's strategy seems to be to steam forward with blind hope and political mandates in lieu of informed planning. That has not worked out so well for them. I think this natural gas ban is just another example.

Less than one month after California experienced rolling blackouts, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti sent out this tweet urging his constituents to conserve power to avoid more potential outage. Many California officials, particularly Governor Gavin Newsom, brand the state as a leader in a variety of areas and take pride in lecturing others on how to best promote clean energy. While it’s true that California relies on clean energy more so than other states, it’s difficult to accept advice from a state that has accelerated renewable development absent any strategy to account for the sources’ current shortcomings.

California gets about a third of its electricity from renewables, which isn’t a bad thing in and of itself. However, with battery storage technology still in development, sources such as solar and wind cannot provide around-the-clock reliable energy. This becomes especially problematic when states like California are abandoning other energy sources in order to race towards its politically-driven targets of achieving 60 percent renewable electricity by 2030 and 100 percent by 2045.

To be clear, pursuing renewable energy development is good policy and forward-looking. However, when advanced blindly for the sake of political optics, energy grid complications are inevitable. Presently, current technology makes renewable power on its own insufficient, and these limitations are not overcome through aggressive mandates or politically-motivated decisions. Rather, we can lead a smoother transition to renewables with policies like an all-of-the-above energy approach. As opposed to a mandate driven approach, an all-of-the-above strategy will ensure continued grid stability and reduced emissions, all without the California-style blackouts in the meantime.

You cannot mandate away reality. Just because they passed a law to be 100% renewable by 2045 doesn't mean it will be so. I've seen this pattern play out too many times. Politicans pass lofty mandates to score browning points with their constituents without looking into the plan to see if it is feasible. Then reality comes to bite in the form of high costs, lack of storage, grid stability issues, etc. And then the lofty mandates have to be re-evaluated.

Is it really asking too much to have a new system in place before we dismantle the old one? California is dismantling it's old power plants faster than it is building new capacity and storage to replace them. And it's not like this is all a big surprise. Experts warned this would be a problem but the leaders were drunk on hopium and ignored these calls.

Why did it take so long to finally start moving on the storage front? Did it really take rolling blackouts for them to figure out that after the sun goes down solar panels don't generate electricity? If the storage technologies were not ready yet then just leave the old generation in place until it is. Don't just throw up solar panels with no storage or backup for when the sun goes down. Then at the same time tear down your existing power plants. You don't need to be on the cutting edge to figure this stuff out. People want a grid that functions even with high renewable penetration. They will not want the "minor inconvenience" of blackouts. That means a solution to this problem must be found: storage, backup power(with incentives if necessary), etc.

I always said renewables would get cheaper and be built in much greater numbers. Lower costs is definitely a plus of renewables. Or rather, one of their former drawbacks, high cost, is now going away. But renewables still have one major drawback: lower reliability. They generate electricity only for a portion of the day. This problem is a small one when renewable penetration in the grid is low. However it grows bigger and bigger the larger the share of renewables in the grid are. That means if you want to maintain high grid reliability you have to use some methods to compensate for this weakness: storage, backup, etc. And there are costs associated with this. Storage currently costs more than the renewables themselves.

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We have already seen progress being made over the last 1-2 decades on many of these issues: EV ranges are longer,

Yes. but that is not progress. It's fighting tooth and nail to keep bau as is.
Progress would be to realize that EV ain't the same as gas. That it's nonsense to lug around a 1 ton battery on a 30 miles shopping trip or on a daily commute.

The answer is LESS. Less weight, less range, less size. Small & simple for short range use. And for long range trips, you go ahead and use gas.