[Newfie]

This young fellow is a army get and reservist. He is reviewing an interview with the US Defense Intelligence Agency Director. He take a pretty balanced look at the situation. Some may find it interesting.

https://youtu.be/5tugMSiMca8?si=AX-DWOlc7wJVc22K

[Plantagenet]

This young fellow is a army vet and reservist. He is reviewing an interview with the US Defense Intelligence Agency Director. He take a pretty balanced look at the situation. Some may find it interesting.

https://youtu.be/5tugMSiMca8?si=AX-DWOlc7wJVc22K

I found it interesting.

He spent the first part of his talk explaining why he and other analysts got it wrong when they expected Ukraine to collapse quickly when Russia invaded.

OK...good enough.

And then he discussed the current Ukrainian counteroffensive after a recent DIA analysis that said the Ukrianians have a small but real chance of "breaking through" the Russian lines by years end rather then grinding on for years into a stalemate.

Personally, I don't think there is any chance the Ukrianians can defeat the Russians in a long drawn out war because of the huge disparity in the size of the two countries. The Ukrainians will have to outsmart the Russians to win the war and they will have to leverage their technological advantage to beat the the Russians. They've already shown they can outsmart the Russians by driving the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of crimea using small drones.

Getting the Russian Army out of Crimea will be more difficult, but I think it can be done. Rather than fighting the Russians the Ukrianians should surround and starve them out. All they need to do is destroy the bridge between Crimea and the Mainland AND cut the Russian supply lines to Crimea to the north and the Russian forces in all of southern Ukraine will have their supply lines cut. Without resupply they will eventually run out of food, water, fuel and ammunition.

When they get hungry enough to Russians forces in Crimea will have to surrender.


All the Ukrainians have to do is cut off the supply lines to Crimea and Russians forces there will eventually run out of food, water, fuel and ammunition.

Cheers!

[Newfie]

Yes, Preston is clearly rooting foe Ukraine but keeps a clear eye about Russias capabilities.

I am among those who believe this is a proxy war. And the West is winning at low cost. There are a lot of ways this could still pan out. The power of stupid is thick. And there is much we do not know.

[theluckycountry]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1701741396363792650

English speaking spokesperson for the Ukrainian military: Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world.

Who is this new spokesperson? Sarah Ashton-Cirillo, a transgender ex-journalist from the US.
"Justice will be served, as we in ukraine, are led on this mission, by faith in God, Liberty, and complete liberation."

I was thinking this morning that this war, and all the regional ones before it, have become a form of entertainment for us. Much like Newstainment or Weather-tainment. After a short period of time, several months or a year perhaps, all seriousness in the event is gone and it becomes like a football game, or a football series. I must admit that when it started I was not all that interested, given the players and the location. But as time passed I have become a 'fan' so to speak. Following the game, not with the keen interest that plant exhibits, but with a much more detached view and I'd like to think, a more practical view. One not caught up in the desire to see my team win.

Putin and Kim at the Vostochny Spaceport on the 75th anniversary of the DPRK. 14 Sep 2023



I like Kim's tie, Savile Row?

Zelenskyy has good taste in ties as well but he doesn't know how to wear them. Do an image search yourself, most pix show them a little askew or not pulled up nicely. He looks like a puppy dog doesn't he, whereas Kim looks like a bonafide psychopath.

[AgentR11]

Interesting this hasn't been commented on here, but apparently UA was able to use some storm shadow cruise missiles to hit some soft(er) targets in Sevastopol, namely a RO/RO military ship and an attack sub, both were apparently in dry dock there in Crimea.

That's a good economic use of the expensive missile, but I wonder about their use against targets that have little bearing on the outcome of the UA/Russia war. More like high budget harassment. I've forgotten the name of the ro/ro but I recognized it from the coverage of the "Syria Express" shipping between Russia and Tartus; it was heavily used for that purpose before going in for maintenance. Wonder why they chose to do maintenance there in Crimea... curious.

[Plantagenet]

UA was able to use some storm shadow cruise missiles to hit ... targets in Sevastopol, namely a RO/RO military ship and an attack sub, both were apparently in dry dock there in Crimea.
That's a good economic use of the expensive missile, but I wonder about their use against targets that have little bearing on the outcome of the UA/Russia war.

You are missing the entire point of the Ukrianian attack.

Not only did Ukraine destroy the transport and the submarine....UKRAINE DESTROYED THE DRY DOCK THE SHIPS WERE IN....AND THATS THE BEST DRY DOCK AVAILABLE FOR USE BY THE RUSSIAN BLACK SEA FLEET

Dry Docks are extremely important to maintaining warships....and the dry dock in Sevastopol is the ONLY land-based dry dock used by the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Russia does have some smaller floating dry docks back in the easternmost Black Sea, but these just aren't nearly as useful for repairing big ships. And if the Russians can't repair their ships, then one by one the ships of the Black Sea Fleet are going to go out of service.

For comparison, one of the biggest British commando raids of WWII was on the Dry Docks at St. Nazaire in Nazi occupied France. The Brits sent in an old destroyer loaded with explosive along with hundreds of commandos to take out the dry dock, and the majority of the Brits were either killed on captured on the raid. It's one of the most legendary raids of all of WWII.

[img]https://wiki.gcdn.co/images/f/fd/The_Raid_on_St_Nazaire%2C_27–28_March_1942%2C_by_John_Alan_Hamilton.jpg[/img]

St_Nazaire_Raid

In contrast, the Ukrainians had zero casualties in taking out the Russian dry docks.

The destruction of the Russian dry docks is another tremendous victory for the Ukrainians and for the Ukrianians to do it without taking a single casualty is amazing.

Cheers!

[Newfie]

Agent

I agree with Plants post that the dry dicks themselves were likely the bigger target. Other comments I have seen not the ship was capable of unloading without dockage and would be a valuable asset if the Kerch bridge was destroyed. The sub was 1 of 4 that had been launching Kaliber missiles at Ukraine. And also just the sheer propaganda value, this can not be covered up even in Russia. It brings some clarity to the Russian people.

[theluckycountry]

That's a good economic use of the expensive missile, but I wonder about their use against targets that have little bearing on the outcome of the UA/Russia war.

I'm surprised they didn't sell them on the black market to the Iranians or someone. Of a lot of the arms going there are being sold on the BM, that's always the case with these banana republics.

[AgentR11]

I saw the images of before and after, destroyed is a big word for what was achieved. Disabled for a bit, certainly. (Retaining wall was broken) That said, it was the most convenient, being in Sevastopol; but best belongs to the one South of Kerch, bigger, and more recently renovated "Zaliv Shipyard". The Sevastopol drydock did not look flooded either, so its gates are intact. There's video of the Minsk as well, post attack, deck structures look seriously damaged, but the hull looked in good shape, and also no indication of flooding in the dock there.

Sucky target; good agitprop, not so good result if the target was the dry dock itself. They were shooting for the ships, else they would have targeted and broken the gates.

Hopefully the sub took more damage, but its bay showed no flooding either, so, I dunno. Probably won't get video of that, subs be camera shy after-all.

[Plantagenet]

In contrast to claims that the Ukrianians didn't target the dry dock their missiles hit and didn't destroy the dry docks, most analysts say the Ukrainians clearly targeted the dry dock----this is clearly shown by the fact that they hit the dry dock with many more missiles then would be necessary to just destroy two ships.

russian-navy-shipyard-targeted-by-missile-strikes-in-sevastopol-two-vessels-hit

So how much were the two ships in the dry docks damaged? Much more then some posting here claim...All quotes below shown in HEAVY black FONT


The Rostov-on-don submarine in dry dock before the Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol.

Footage from the dry dock at the Sevmorzavod shipyard showed that one of the two vessels, the large landing ship Minsk, was completely destroyed, with most of its bridge torn apart and collapsed. Satellite imaging also showed considerable damage inflicted on the second vessel, the Rostov-on-Don submarine. Rostov-on-Don is one of only six Kilo-class submarines that the Russian Black Sea Fleet possesses

russian-navy-shipyard-targeted-by-missile-strikes-in-sevastopol-two-vessels-hit

So why did Ukraine target the dry dock in Sevastopol? I quote from the analyses in the WSJ piece in my link:

the sidelining of a major naval dry dock facility complicates Russia’s ability to operate on the Black Sea.
In modern warfare, dry docks have always been a high-priority target.
As complex pieces of heavy machinery, necessary for the basic maintenance of any naval force, dry docks—facilities where ships can be floated in and repaired after water is pumped out—are not easy things to fix. America is spending billions to refresh undamaged dry docks. Repairing battle damage will be far more costly.
Russia’s inability to defend these vital pieces of critical military infrastructure is a stunning military failure, suggesting Russia’s air defenses are either inadequate, broken or both.
But the strike also highlights Russia’s desperation. After several strikes across Crimea and Sevastopol, Russia knew the docks were likely targets, but, regardless of the threat, Russia continued to use them to maintain key Black Sea naval units.
Russia simply has nowhere else to go.
Russia’s lack of modern Black Sea waterfront repair infrastructure is a serious problem for Russia’s Black Sea fleet. Without maintenance support, Russia’s entire Black Sea Fleet will, in a matter of months, be rendered operationally ineffective—and effectively sunk.

That sounds like bad news for the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

So.....How large was the Ukrainian attack on the Dry Docks?

... the 990 lb warhead on a Storm Shadow cruise missile cannot match the explosive power of the 4 tons of explosives used to blow up the St. Nazaire docks, reports suggest Ukraine dedicated up to ten of these precision-strike missiles to the attack.

Let's do the math.....10 missiles times 900 lbs per cruise missile is 9000 total lbs or explosives....an amount just slightly BIGGER then the amount of the explosives the Brits used to taken down the Nazi controlled Dry docks in WWII. And mostly likely some of ammunition and/or the fuel on the two ships also exploded, adding to the general destruction.

And what kind of damage did the Ukrainian missiles do to the dry docks themselves? We know there are TWO heavily damaged Russian war ships now clogging up the entire dry dock. Clearly nothing can be done there or repaired there until the hulks of those two warships are totally removed from the dry dock bays. That is going to take a substantial amount of time.

But were the Dry Docks themselves damaged? Here's what an analyst says:

Aside from hitting the warships inside the dry docks, it would have been easy to dedicate a missile or two to a critical dry dock pump house or to the dry dock doors, themselves, further complicating any attempt to bring these irreplacable facilities back to service.

In other words, some of the key equipment necessary to operating the dry docks has most likely been either heavily damaged or destroyed, meaning that even if the Russians managed to remove the two scrap ships now clogging up the bays, the dry docks themselves are now probably effectively useless until major repairs are made which will likely take years.....

This is very similar to the result of the Brit raid that destroyed the Nazi run dry docks at St. Nazaire in 1942. Sure....after massive repairs those dry docks were put back in service in 1948, but for the duration of WWII they were useless to the Nazis, i.e. they were effectively destroyed for the remainder of WWII.

Which brings me back to the meaning of the word "DESTROY"

AgentR11 is claiming the dry docks at Sevastopol were not destroyed because he can still see the doors and the dry dock isn't flooded.

But to destroy something doesn't mean to utterly annihilate it so you can't see it anymore.

According to the Cambridge Dictionary the word destroy means to damage something so badly that it cannot be used

Which is precisely what has happened to these dry docks, i.e. they are now so badly damaged that they cannot be used, ie. they are destroyed.

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

Hate to get into a nibble over verbiage. Destroy implies something relatively permanent. The gates are not breached, the dock is dry. We'll know if they come back around for another volley to take out the gates, if they do, then my chosen verbiage would seem more appropriate.

From before and after satellite images, destroy is to strong a word. From the post attack video of the Minsk... to strong.

Definetly damaged and out of commission for a bit, certainly degraded in capacity.

As to targeting, maybe they did target the dry docks and the missiles intended for the gates were intercepted in some way. I can't imagine targeting such a facility and leaving the most expensive bits to repair undamaged.

[Plantagenet]

Hate to get into a nibble over verbiage.

Then why did you quibble over the meaning of the word "destroy" when I used it correctly above and why are you now are doing it again a second time when you are clearly in the wrong?

Destroy implies something relatively permanent.

No it doesn't.

You are making that up.

I've looked at multiple dictionary definitions and I even posted the definition the word "destroy" for you above and there is absolutely nothing in the definition about the destruction being permanent.

And if you look at the way the word is commonly used in the English it clearly doesn't mean or imply permanent.

For instance, I very clearly compared the destruction of the dry docks in Sevastopol to the destruction of the Nazi-occupied docks in St. Naviare during WWII when a famous British commando raid destroyed the dry docks. And I very clearly said those docks were put back into service after extensive repairs in 1948. Let me spell it out for you again. There is no controversy over the statement that the British Commandos DESTROYED the dry docks in their 1942 raid, even though they were repaired and back in service 6 years later. That because the definition of the word "destroy" shows it doesn't mean permanent, as you keep wrongly insisting.

I repeat in case you still don't understand----the word "destroy" doesn't mean permanent because the Dry Docks the Brits destroyed in their famous raid in 1942 were put back in service in 1948. Are you also quibbling over whether the British commandos destroyed those dry docks in 1942? Your claim is just nonsensical.

Let me give you another example. In English language you can find millions of references to the destruction of cities by bombing and fighting during WWI and WWII (I just googled this and got 3.5 million hits) But all these cities have been now been rebuilt.

Again, that shows that your claim that destroy means permanent isn't true. Thats not the way the word is used and it's not what it means.

---------------------------

So why are you quibbling over this word?

Perhaps, since you support the Russian invasion of Ukraine, you are shocked by the fact that Ukrianians destroyed the dry docks in Sevastopol?

Perhaps that it why you want to quibble over the word "destroy"?

Perhaps you think that if you quibble over the word it somehow alters the significance of the Ukrainian attack?

I'm sorry but you are wrong.

I suggest you face the facts here.

The Ukrainians just destroyed the dry docks in Sevastopol. They are now unusable and they will remain unusable for some significant amount of time.

The Ukrainians have also destroyed two major Russian air defense installations in Crimea in the last few days. And its highly significant that the Ukrainians targeted the main Russian air defense sites in Crimea and successfully destroyed them.



Oh...there's that word DESTROY again. Perhaps you will quibble a third time and argue that the Ukrainnians didn't destroy these two Russian air defense sites in Crimea?

DESTROY.....I suspect the word DESTROY is going to be a very useful word going forward, after the Ukrianians destroyed a big part of the Crimean air defense system.

If the Russian air defense systems can't even defend their own sites from Ukrainian air attacks, then they can't defend the rest of Crimea either.

ukraine-destroying-russia-s400-air-defenses-expose-tactical-failures-experts-2023-9

Since the Russian air defense systems aren't up to the job, the Russians have a big problem. It appears that Crimea is now wide open to more Ukrainian air attacks, just like the one that destroyed the Russian-occupied dry docks at Sevastopol.

Cheers!

[EnergyUnlimited]

There are interesting developments here in Poland.
They are relevant to trade disputes between Poland and Ukraine regarding import of Ukrainian agricultural products into Polish market.
There are loads of unsold Ukrainian agriculture products like wheat or sunflower which they try to push somehow on EU market including Poland.
Several months ago European Commission have placed ban on such imports to countries like Poland due to risk of bankruptcy of most of local farmers.
Today European ban have expired but Poland and Hungary have unilaterally extended it for indefinite period of time, contrary to EU treaties - such actions are permitted only on European Commission level.
Slovakia and Romania are also contemplating unilateral action.
Such actions of any country have never happened in EU in the past and they are commonly compared to dropping nuclear bomb on common market.
But our government won't bulk as this would mean CERTAIN loss of general election next month - farmers are perhaps the most loyal electorate of our current government and loss of their votes would finish this government.
Officials are also vehemently reassuring farmers that nothing will change in this regard after election and our national embargo on named Ukrainian agricultural products will only end once global and local prices are satisfactory and there is no risk of dump of large quantities from Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials are threatening to take Poland to WTO over this issue (though it takes a long time there to resolve disputes) but nevertheless there are already rumors here that any financial losses resulting from possible WTO verdict not favorable to Poland would be reclaimed by bringing prices any arms sold to Ukraine to adequate global levels (and they are buying from us quite a lot and getting free even more).
So even if it will take some time to resolve this currently developing situation is very interesting.
There are also wide discussions here about prospects of leaving EU - because European ideas regarding redistributing migrants, introducing far left social policies and environmental policies relying on decarbonization like famous fit for 55 between many other European ideas are simply not acceptable here.
There is a good chance that if these differences are not ironed out somehow then within 5 - 10 years we will be out of EU (though still in NATO).

[AgentR11]

destroy: put an end to the existence of (something) by damaging or attacking it. - oxford languages

The existence of the dry dock in question has not been put to an end. The gates seal, the dock is dry. It has been damaged certainly, and it will be at least a few months before it is back in service. It has not been destroyed. I suspect our NATO busy bees are scurrying about setting up a second try to break the gates, if they succeed, then we can talk destroy.

The question I have is why is it important to believe it has been destroyed, if you don't think the word has any permanence or even significant duration? It was a relatively successful attack on a pair of vulnerable ships; the *sub* may be destroyed, the Minsk not so much, but seriously damaged. The drydock remains... dry. It has wreckage it in, it has a broken retaining wall, it will take some work to clear.

Does this sentence even make sense: We destroyed the facility and it will be next month before it is operational again.

In any event, I just think its a poor target for such rare and valuable weaponry. The bridge spans, particularly the rail side, would be much more suitable and would have a much greater impact on Russia's ability to supply Crimea than the loss of a single ro/ro.

[Newfie]

RE: THE DRY DOCKS AND SHIPS

The landing ship hull may be fine but the hull is not a major cost of the ship.
That is in the various systems. For a yacht the hull cost is about 10% of vslue, probably less in this high tech fighti g ship. That ship apparently had an aluminum superstructure, which burned and collapsed. The inside is pretty much destroyed.

The sub is very different. The hull is a pressure vessle and would be very sensitive to damage. I have seen no assessment of the subs damage, but a hit to the hull could be fatal.

Thr dry docks are massive structures and we think of the gates and the pumps. What is often forgotten are the big cranes. These are big, expensive, and sometimes very old affairs. Depending upon when built they may be very old and likely designed for this yard. Russia may not have the capability to repair or replace them. If they are damaged, and I think at least one was, then that could take some years to recover.

[theluckycountry]

There are interesting developments here in Poland... There are loads of unsold Ukrainian agriculture products like wheat or sunflower which they try to push somehow on EU market including Poland... But our government won't balk as this would mean CERTAIN loss of general election next month - farmers are perhaps the most loyal electorate of our current government and loss of their votes would finish this government.

Yes. Just because the ukraine wants to destroy its future doesn't mean other nations should follow suit. The whole of Western Europe seems to be committing it's citizens to austerity over this conflict, it's quite strange to many, though I'm sure they have a 'power down' agenda associated with it. It's a good way to get their citizens off dependence on Russian energy (off energy itself lol), so as to keep those Euros at home. The energy poor nations of the West simply can't keep emptying their treasuries forever, they have little trade with Russia to balance the accounts, What do they have that Russia can't make or buy from China?

If you draw a line down from Poland, SSE across the continent to Turkey you see a whole swath of nations that really have no interest in being too involved. Romania is playing along but I'm sure it would be happy to see the zelensky regime crippled, they have a contested oil field in the black sea they'd love to get their hands on. Erdogan in Turkey has been playing a double game for quite a while in this affair. Hungary and Slovakia are going to continue own bans on grains from the ukraine, they are not big fans of the ukraine either it seems.

These little Eastern nations Joined NATO and the EU thinking it would improve their lot but they discovered that it simply made them open to exploitation by Western powers, by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.

You may find this article interesting. I'd like to hear your opinion on it, as a Pole in the heart of it so to speak The Roots of Polish Populism https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoi ... ss-2023-09

I apologize for the political nature of the read but it seems to portray a step back from wokeness to values people want in their lives, and a step away from enslavement towards more money in their pockets as I see it. A step towards "better" politics perhaps?

[AgentR11]

The sub is very different. The hull is a pressure vessle and would be very sensitive to damage. I have seen no assessment of the subs damage, but a hit to the hull could be fatal.

Certainly, its just I haven't seen any images that tell the tale on that one... yet. I'm sure if its been hit they'll surface sooner or later.

Russia may not have the capability to repair or replace them. If they are damaged, and I think at least one was, then that could take some years to recover.

Pretty sure Russia can replace the crane(s), but will they, given the proven vulnerability of the site, I dunno.

nb.. Minsk isn't a high tech anything. I mention the hull only in the context of being able to float it out of the dock without having to dismantle it in place. She won't be making deliveries to Syria for a while at least! lol.

I wonder the kind of math they're doing in their heads right now, given the particularly high expense of the attack, vs repair of the facility and what they learned as far as defending against the storm shadows. Clearly they were somewhat successful, given the result, but not completely successful.

[Plantagenet]

It has been damaged certainly, and it will be at least a few months before it is back in service.

I was hoping you'd make a prediction as to when you think the dry docks will be back in service.

The word few normally means more than 2...but not many more. Maybe 3 or 4 or so. So....it seems you think the dry docks will be back in operation by about mid-January at the latest?

Personally, I don't think it will be ready that quickly.

Let's both keep track of what happens at these dry docks and eventually we'll see who is right on this one.

So far the Russians haven't even managed to put out the fires.....reports say the damaged transport ship is still smoldering and Russian firefighters are still spraying water.

--------------------------------

The Ukrianians just released footage showing that a couple of days ago one of their brave little sea drones hit a Russian missile ship near Crimea and disabled it.

The Russian ship was later seen being towed away as it listed to one side.

ukraine-sea-drone-damages-small-russian-missile-ship-

Too bad the dry docks in Sevastopol were just destroyed or the Russians might be able to repair that ship there.

So that makes 3 Russian ships put out of commission in just a few days---the two ships destroyed in the dry docks, and now this third ship damaged at sea.



Ukraine has just put three Russians ships out of commission in the last few days....not bad for a little country that doesn't even have a Navy.

Cheers!

[EnergyUnlimited]

You may find this article interesting. I'd like to hear your opinion on it, as a Pole in the heart of it so to speak The Roots of Polish Populism https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoi ... ss-2023-09

I apologize for the political nature of the read but it seems to portray a step back from wokeness to values people want in their lives, and a step away from enslavement towards more money in their pockets as I see it. A step towards "better" politics perhaps?

The guy who has written it is from our far left side of political spectrum but his analysis is surprisingly honest.

Following observations he makes are grossly correct:

1. Society is divided along political lines and moderately populist center right party (PiS) is holding power.

2. Liberal traditions of West are NOW distrusted here and frown upon by ~1/2 population.
In the past they were admired by large majority but now it is seen that they lead to drug addicts shitting under themselves while laying unconscious on a street, migrants sleeping in card boxes under skyscrapers and many urban areas converting into small islamic fiefdoms where police will be attacked if tries to enter.

3. Electorate of current center-right government is in part fanatical (farmers, dedicated catholics, pensioners) and in part cynical (those who are calculating taxes to be paid and handouts and finding that handouts are larger). They need all these groups to rule.

4. Men are much less interested in university education than women (because fork lift operator will earn twice as much as psychology or sociology graduate and plumber or electrician will earn even more).
What this guy here does not say is that most of graduates outside of STEM sector have very poor earning potential and of course in STEM alone is much more men than women.

5. Most of men are pro market and confident that they can help themselves, so those in working age will commonly support the only right wing party (Confederation) which is calling for reduction of benefits, mocks feminism and want to allow opting out of state pension system and that is why people from far/extreme left like this guy will call this party extreme right.

6. Men are usually supportive to refugees from Ukraine and women increasingly hate them - that is because overwhelming majority of these refugees are women, many of them quite nice and submissive, so they are kicking loads of local women out of sex market and tend to secure better men for themselves.
They often have STDs though - but there is solution for it - many doctors are now advertising along a line "bring your Ukrainian GF here, we will find out what is wrong with her and treat her.

7. Ideas like feminism, LGBT, gender etc are frequently mocked down here in mainstream by PiS (ruling party) and even more so by Confederation.
Several months ago our education minister have called LGBT and gender activists in TV that they are not people but defiled ideology and they will be kept out of schools.

8. We support Ukraine - for geopolitical reasons. All powerful Russia who have taken all of it would be from our perspective most unfortunate outcome of this war.

9. Anti-EU sentiment is growing and populists are already making a meal out of it.

10. All sides of political spectrum are pro-NATO.

11. Parliamentary elections are on 15 Oct. this year.
I expect currently ruling center right populist PiS to win again but they will need informal coalition with Confederation to be able to rule. Formal coalition is unlikely though because Confederation doesn't like populist handouts peddled by PiS.
Such political reality will produce increasingly anti - EU government.

[AgentR11]

It has been damaged certainly, and it will be at least a few months before it is back in service.

I was hoping you'd make a prediction as to when you think the dry docks will be back in service.

AT LEAST

is the operative phrase there.

If we're going to guess, I'd guess in this fashion, *IF* the Russian's choose to repair it, my guess is it'll take them a year to get their act together and bring it back into service. They'll spend six months filling out paper work.