AgentR11 wrote:[
I SAID "AT LEAST", NOT "NOT MORE THAN".
LEARN TO READ.
OK. Calm down there.
You are the one retracting and changing your position, not me.
If you're going to shift your prediction in the middle of our discussion about your prediction, you could at least be a tiny bit gracious about it.
OK....so you've now completely abandoned your original prediction that you were so insistent about. You no longer think that the dry docks would be open again in a "few months".....is that right?
You now 100% agree with me that your original prediction that the dry docks would be back in service in a "few months" is highly unlikely to be true?
Well....I think thats great.
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AND your new position is that Russians will remove the two destroyed ships and repair any damage to the dry docks and have them operational again in less then a year?
Personally I think you are still being much too optimistic.
Western news reports and the photo evidence shows the transport ship is a ruined hulk and the submarine is severely damaged as well. And clearly there is some degree of damage to the dry docks as well. You are right that the gate is intact and the dry docks remain dry. But the dry dock was hit by multiple cruise missiles and then it caught on fire....and it wouldn't take much damage to put critical dry dock infrastructure, such as the pumps and motors that open the doors and pump the water out, as we'll as all the electrical equipment and wiring, out of working order. AND the Ukrainains can just drop another bomb on the dry docks if the Russians actually make an effort to repair them so I think they are effectively out of commission for the duration of the war.
Personally, I don't think the Russians will be able to repair the two damaged ships in the dry dock bays, much less get the dry dock up and running in less than a year, especially as the Ukrianians are now very close to cutting Crimea off from mainland Russia by blowing up the Kursk Bridge and destroying the rail and road links from the north. If the Ukrainians succeed in cutting off Crimea from Russia, the Russians are going to be preoccupied with getting food, water, fuel and ammo into their forces in Crimea.
I think the famous British commando raid in 1942 which destroyed Nazi-occupied dry docks provides a useful analogy to this dry dock attack. It took six years....until 1948....to get those dry docks operational again after the British destroyed them in 1942*. I think something similar will occur here now that the Ukrianians have destroyed these dry docks. I don't know if it will take six years...but I predict it will certainly take more than one year.
Cheers.
*In the interest of full disclosure, I've done a bit more research on this and I found another WWII dry dock that was put out of operation, this time in Naples in 1943.
The Germans sabotaged the Naples dry dock as they retreated up the Italian Peninsula, but it only took the Brits and Americans a bit over a year to get it back in operation. So it is possible to repair a dry in a year or so......But that repair was done by the Brits and the American in full war mobilization mode. I still don't think the Russians will get things done that quickly in Crimea, especially as they remain under Ukrainian attack. And even if the Russians do mount an effort to repair the dry docks.....which I personally doubt...the Ukrianians can easily bomb it again.
Cheers!