[EnergyUnlimited]

There is growing disagreement between Poland and Ukraine related to dispute about exporting, means really dumping unsold Ukrainian agricultural products to Poland.
Our president is losing patience with them and he has sharply criticized Ukraine on UN forum:
https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/uk ... duda-41422

"Ukraine is behaving like a drowning person clinging to everything he can... but we have the right to defend ourselves against harm being done to us,"

"A drowning person is extremely dangerous, he can pull you down to the depths... simply drown the rescuer,"

"We must act to protect ourselves from the harm being done to us, because if the drowning person... drowns us, he will not get help."

"So we have to take care of our interests and we will do it effectively and decisively,"

This is turning more and more interesting.
Disputes between nations about agriculture and fishing are tending to easily go very bitter and vexatious and one between Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Ukraine is yet another example of it.

Our president Duda was expected to meet with Zelenski during this UN General Assembly but meeting was canceled.
They might meet later.

[Newfie]

If it were of significant magnitude, the lines would move. They just haven't; so I take most of these stories from both sides with a metric ton of salt.

I agree with the salt ration, more than suits my taste, but here we are.

What I HEAR (recounted very briefly) to explain the situation is that Ukraine can not advance into the fortified lines in force. Three are making small attacks supported by artillery, to get behind the defense Ines and then open them up to the side. Meanwhile long range weapons are being used to break Russias logistics, so that the front line troops are worn down and defeated.

This appears to be working as the lines are moving. Slowly but decisively. I believe the hopenisnthat at some point therewith be a general break in thenRussian system Ukraine can exploit.

This Ukrainian plan relies heavily upon continued Western aid and a supply of deep penetrating weapons. To my knowledge that is not a sure thing, the West has limited supplies of these weapons it can dole out and the manufacturing base needs time to spin up.

So it remains a cliff hanger no matter which side you view it from.

[Plantagenet]

There is a dry dock in Eastern Crimea that is, so far, untouched, its bigger than the one in Sevastopol, but less convenient for military use.

I have to disagree with you again, I'm afraid.

First of all, Russia's dry dock facility is located on the Russian mainland at the far eastern end of the Black Sea, not the "eastern Crimea" as you claim.

AND convenient or not, Russia is going to have to shift all its Black Sea Naval dry dock work to that site since the dry dock in Sevastopol is completely inoperable because its two bays are filled with the wrecked hulks of the two Russian Naval vessels destroyed in the recent Ukrainian attack and the damage to dry dock itself from the cruise missile attack and the subsequent fire still hasn't been repaired.




New photos show that the fire at the Sevastopol shipyard after the Ukrainian attack was large and damaged some of the dry dock infrastructure, including the cranes that are used to repair ships.

Have a great day!

[AgentR11]

There is a dry dock in Eastern Crimea that is, so far, untouched, its bigger than the one in Sevastopol, but less convenient for military use.

I have to disagree with you again, I'm afraid.

First of all, Russia's dry dock facility is located on the Russian mainland at the far eastern end of the Black Sea, not the "eastern Crimea" as you claim.

There are three dry docks in Crimea that i know of. Two in Sevastopol; one south of Kerch called Zalev.

https://www.google.com/maps/@45.2612881 ... &entry=ttu
https://www.google.com/maps/@44.6100025 ... &entry=ttu
https://www.google.com/maps/@44.6273294 ... &entry=ttu

[Plantagenet]

Ukraine's plan is to push just far enough into Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine to be able to cut off the supply lines to all the Russian forces in occupied SE Ukraine and Crimea.

There are two train lines from mainland Russian south towards Crimea but these both converge at Tokmak.

It just takes a quick look at a map to see that the Ukrainian offensive is directed right at Tokmak, and they are already close enough to be able to hit Tokmak with a range weapons.

russian-forces-prepare-ukrainian-attack-tokmak

If Ukraine is able to put the train yard at Tokmak out of commission, they will cut off most food, fuel and ammo coming into the Russian forces from the north....and the attacks on Tokamak have already started


The Ukrianians blew up the train bridge into Tokmak, blocking Russian supply trains to the south

The Russians already sabotaged their own water supplies when they blew up the dam that fed into canals that carried water south to Crimea.

Most Russian missile attacks these days seem to target the Ukrainian ports that are supplying food to the world. It would be poetic justice if the Ukrainians are able to turn the tables and cut off the Russian forces from their food, water, fuel, and ammunition supplies.

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

No thoughts on why you think those images are imaginary dry docks?

[Plantagenet]

There are three dry docks in Crimea that i know of. Two in Sevastopol; one south of Kerch called Zalev.

https://www.google.com/maps/@45.2612881 ... &entry=ttu
https://www.google.com/maps/@44.6100025 ... &entry=ttu
https://www.google.com/maps/@44.6273294 ... &entry=ttu

Thank you for posting links to the images of the dry dock you said were "imaginary" Of course I was referring to dry docks suitable for Russian Black Sea Navy ships....not small dry docks built for local work servicing fishing ships or oil rig service ships. The tiny local dry docks are irrelevant when it comes to servicing Russian Black sea Naval Vessels.

However, when I looked at the google map images you linked to the first one showed a shipyard but I didn't see any dry dock.
The second one showed the two destroyed dry docks at Sevastopol.
And the third one showed a small dry dock built to service small local boats. This dry dock isn't look large enough or well equipped enough to service submarines or large Russian Black Sea Naval Vessels...i.e. its irrelevant.

Or one could say its not very convenient, as you put it.

I also found a bit more information in a news report that says Russia also has several more floating dry docks scattered around the eastern Black Sea, but apparently they aren't capable of servicing submarines or very large Russian naval vessels either.

"There are a limited number of other floating docks in Crimea, as well as in other Crimean ports like Kerch and Feodosiya. But experts said those all lack the specialized infrastructure needed to do complicated repairs, on submarines or many naval ships....In Novorossiysk, for example, a major oil and gas port located about 500 kilometers east of Sevastopol, there are no facilities for servicing specific naval ships like submarines."



All in all, I agree with you 100% that the lack of suitable dry docks is very inconvenient for the Russian Black Sea Fleet!

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

I looked at the google map images you linked to and the first one showed a shipyard but I didn't see any dry dock.
The second one showed the two destroyed dry docks at Sevastopol.

45.262676, 36.422580 that's the coords of the gate, you have to zoom in to see the perspective.

And yes, very inconvenient and not set up to service subs.

The third one is at least 800ft long, scale is at bottom right, its quite decent and can service subs size wise. I'm not sure if its currently occupied and whether or not they'll use it for that purpose. Or even if they need to at this point. Hard to say.

I wonder if they'd simply choose to do maintenance at one of their inland/river network shipyards to reduce the risk of a repeat. Attack boats and corvettes can reasonably maneuver through the locks involved. Increases the round trip time involved if necessary though. More inconvenience!

Their biggest issue I think with regard to the docs, maintenance wise, are the large ro/ro cargo ships; they've been worked HARD over the Syria expedition, and I'm sure more than just Minsk needs some time in maintenance.

[Plantagenet]

[
Their biggest issue I think with regard to the docs, maintenance wise, are the large ro/ro cargo ships; they've been worked HARD over the Syria expedition, and I'm sure more than just Minsk needs some time in maintenance.

I agree with you that the Cargo Ships are a key issue.

If Ukraine succeeds in cutting the off Crimea from mainland Russia to the north, and also succeeds in blowing up the Kerch bridge, Russia will have to use the cargo ships to resupply their forces in occupied Crimea.

Given how important cargo ships may become, it seems to be bad luck for Russia that the Minsk has already been destroyed in the attack on the dry dock....and Ukriane has already damaged a couple of other cargo ships as well.


The Minsk cargo ship is no longer available for service in Crimea.....

Cheers!

[EnergyUnlimited]

Relations between Poland and Ukraine related to Ukrainian grain export/dump dispute are deteriorating.
Our former ambassador to Ukraine is saying that position of Ukrainian government is suicidal:
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/zaostrzaja-sie ... 430781184a
You will need to use your favorite translator as report is in Polish.
He expects that further unfriendly moves including trade retaliations in current dispute about attempt to dump large quantities of unsold Ukrainian grain on Polish market would likely result in limiting arms supplies and logistic support Ukraine is getting at the moment.
He explains that Ukraine is not understanding her place in a game and may lose badly if suicidal acts of her government are not tamed.
One of our other high ranking officials have stated that president Zelensky of Ukraine is increasingly behaving like an "aggressive panhandler" and our president have said that Ukraine is a drowning man who tries to pull rescuers with himself (I gave a reference to it in my previous post).

But of course that is nothing new for me because Ukrainian government is acting in suicidal manner for last year and half and at the end it may well succeed.

Similar disputes Ukraine has with Hungary, Slovakia and to lesser extent Romania. In case of Belarus they are on the brink of war and in regard of Russia - we all know.

They have no more neighbors and relations with those up to date friendly are deteriorating fast.

They already lost about third of population - part run away, part killed/wounded and part taken by Russia.
Ukraine is committing suicide or is sabotaged.

[Plantagenet]

Ukraine is committing suicide .....

I don't understand your point of view.

It's very very difficult resisting invasion by a larger, more powerful neighboring country.

Look at your own country....when Poland was invaded by German and Russian armies at the start of WWII, Poland was able to hold out for only 35 days. Do you think Poland "committed suicide" by fighting back against the Nazis and the Russians when they invaded Poland?

Far from "committing suicide" as you claim, brave little Ukraine is actually heroically trying to stop the Russians from murdering its people, destroying its land, and ending its very existence as a country.

Putin is an ignorant reactionary who wants to return to the 19th and 20th century era of the Czarist and Soviet Russian empires.

Ukraine's courageous efforts to fight back against the murderous Russian invasion isn't an act of suicide......fighting back is the only way Ukraine can stay alive.



Cheers!

[EnergyUnlimited]

Ukraine is committing suicide .....

I don't understand your point of view.

It's very very difficult resisting invasion by a larger, more powerful neighboring country.

Far better way forward for them was to accept non-NATO neutral status and give away territories already under Russian control - to avoid this war.
Finland have managed it with Stalin, so why they wouldn't?
On the top of it their current disputes with Poland, Slovakia and Hungary are just insane and if carried on will leave them completely isolated.

Look at your own country....when Poland was invaded by German and Russian armies at the start of WWII, Poland was able to hold out for only 35 days. Do you think Poland "committed suicide" by fighting back against the Nazis and the Russians when they invaded Poland?

Czechs didn't fight and they were left far better off. Hungarians and Slovaks too... and Austrians, Dutch and you name it.
French quickly surrendered, formed collaborative government and now they are called winners.
So yes - we have committed suicide by undertaking an uphill struggle with no prospect of winning. We ended up with Warsaw and few other cities razed to ground and with 5-6 millions people killed - and all that to vain.
Other continental European nations were more clever.

Far from "committing suicide" as you claim, brave little Ukraine is actually heroically trying to stop the Russians from murdering its people, destroying its land, and ending its very existence as a country.

By now about 1/3 of population is dispersed or killed/maimed. Most of women of reproductive age have gone away and will never come back.
Wait for another year or two...

Putin is an ignorant reactionary who wants to return to the 19th and 20th century era of the Czarist and Soviet Russian empires.

Ukraine's courageous efforts to fight back against the murderous Russian invasion isn't an act of suicide......fighting back is the only way Ukraine can stay alive.

Ukraine without Ukrainians you mean?

[theluckycountry]

Mods, can we change the thread title to "The Dry Dock"

[theluckycountry]

Far better way forward for them was to accept non-NATO neutral status and give away territories already under Russian control - to avoid this war.
Finland have managed it with Stalin, so why they wouldn't?

The people of the ukraine region shot themselves in the head the moment they accepted Western military aid. Did they learn nothing from Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Kosovo? All you get with Western 'liberation' is destruction of your infrastructure and a blanket of depleted Uranium. Then you have to pick up the pieces and move on. Oh I know it's different this time, the West isn't bombing ukraine, but the result is the same. All their young men dying, all the girls fleeing abroad, the economy crippled.

If the west had kept its nose out of it the dust would have settled long ago, ukraine would be rid of the russian separatists once and for all and they would be prospering. The arrogance of it is that that region was never "Ukraine" in the first place. I wish the Poles would move in and take a big chunk themselves. Oh for the good ol days

According to the World Food Programme (WFP), the poverty rate in Iraq reached 31.7% in 2020

Before the 'liberation' they had free gasoline basically, now they are starving.

[Plantagenet]

Far better way forward for them was to accept non-NATO neutral status and give away territories already under Russian control - to avoid this war.

It's too late for that option now -- Russia itself made that option impossible when they invaded Ukraine almost two years ago. Once Russia invaded Ukraine had to choice but to go to war to defend itself from being conquered by Russia.

Finland have managed it with Stalin, so why they wouldn't?

??????

You can't see how what happened in Ukraine and Finland is different?

Please allow me to explain the difference.....

Stalin invaded Finland in WWII, and Finland gave up territory to Russia in a peace treaty after WWII. And that seemed to satisfy Stalin....at least he didn't invade and take more land or try to conquer all of Finland.



Ukriane actually responded much the same way as Finland when Putin sent in Russian special forces and invaded Crimea about 9 years ago. Ukraine (and the west) didn't do much about it. But Putin is worse than Stalin.....Even though he had successfully seized Crimea Putin fomented rebellion in eastern Ukraine to seize more land, and then he invaded central Ukraine with the main Russian army about two years ago to try and conquer all of Ukriane.. Putins second invasion designed to totally conquer all of Ukraine was beyond anything Stalin tried to do in Finland. And If the Ukrianians hadn't fought back when the Russian tank column was headed for Kiev there would be Russian troops in Kiev today and Ukriane would have been forcibly incorporated in a new crypto USSR ruled by the pinhead midget Putin.

Czechs didn't fight and they were left far better off. Hungarians and Slovaks too... and Austrians, Dutch and you name it.
French quickly surrendered, formed collaborative government and now they are called winners.
So yes - we have committed suicide by undertaking an uphill struggle with no prospect of winning.

If you think being conquered by people like the Nazis and the modern reactionary Putiniks Russians out to recreate the 19th century Russian empire makes you "better off" then you are welcome to your opinion. Thank goodness most Poles don't share your ideas.

We ended up with Warsaw and few other cities razed to ground and with 5-6 millions people killed - and all that to vain.
Other continental European nations were more clever.

The Nazis and Russians killed millions of Poles and destroyed Polish cities AFTER they conquered Poland. Your belief that this wouldn't have happened if Poland had surrendered quicker doesn't make any sense and isn't consistent with what actually happened in WWII.

Far from "committing suicide" as you claim, brave little Ukraine is actually heroically trying to stop the Russians from murdering its people, destroying its land, and ending its very existence as a country.

By now about 1/3 of population is dispersed or killed/maimed. Most of women of reproductive age have gone away and will never come back.
Wait for another year or two...

And how many millions of Ukrainians would've been murdered and displaced and sent to Russian labor camps if the Ukrainians had just surrendered? And what about future generation of million and millions of Ukrainians? Should they all have to live forever under the thumb of ignorant Russian Nationalist lunatics like Putin?

Ukraine without Ukrainians you mean?

I never said that or thought that or posted that. That crazy thought originated in your mind and then you and you alone decided to post it. You can fantasize about Ukraine without Ukrainians all you want but please don't try to associate your crazy ideas with me.

Cheers!

[jato0072]

NATO Fractures: In U-Turn, Poland Announces It Will No Longer Arm Ukraine.

More from Poland:

"Poland will no longer arm Ukraine to focus on its own defense," Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced just hours after Warsaw summoned Ukraine's ambassador related to a fresh war of words and spat over blocked grain, according to the AFP. Warsaw has throughout more than a year-and-a-half of the Ukraine-Russia war been Kiev's staunchest and most outspoken supporter.

Twitter post: AFP News Agency

#UPDATE Poland will no longer arm Ukraine to focus on its own defence, Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Wednesday, a few hours after Warsaw summoned Kyiv's ambassador amid a row over grain exports.

[theluckycountry]

Yes, NATO members have had enough of the little dictator in the ukraine. Slovakia & Hungary next, a general rout? It's about time, bloody Nazis.





Neo-Nazi threat in new Ukraine
BBC Newsnight 2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SBo0akeDMY

Just like when Hitler came to power, the West did nothing. When this is all over and the ukraine is absorbed back into the eastern European countries historians will write about what actually happened over there, and it wont be the sanitized fake news we have been fed for a year and more.

[theluckycountry]

US Army's Hypersonic Missile Hit With Fielding Delay As China And Russia Lead Global Arms Race
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-a ... -arms-race

It always happens just before an empire collapses. Big international debt obligations followed by loss of military innovation.

HMS AUDACIOUS of the British fleet, circa 1900

[Plantagenet]

It always happens just before an empire collapses. Big international debt obligations followed by loss of military innovation.

Yup.

And you can see that happening right now in Russia and China as Putin struggles to recreate his infantile dream of another Czarist empire and China pushes outward from its borders.

Russia is so behind in military innovation they are being outdone by a tiny country like Ukraine. Hardly a day goes by that Ukraine's brave little sea drones or their amazing little military drones don't blast some Russian Naval vessel or destroy some tanks or blow up Russia's main dry dock. Just today Ukraine blew up command complexes for the Russian Navy and the Russian Army, killing many Russian officers.....and both were blown up on the same day. Meanwhile Russia is so behind the times they have to import drones and drone technology from that well known center of innovation.....Iran.

And China is clearly in a debt crisis now and a longer term demographic crisis....that should be obvious to even the most infatuated Putinik.

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

That sounds awfully close to "whataboutism" going on there.

The state of Russia or China's deterioration in no way argues counter to our serious deterioration. I don't know that there's much we can do to reverse it at this point, as interest rates increase, we get numerically crushed by interest payments on the debt unless we force folks to buy our bonds at gunpoint rates... Then things get really unstable. Its not a sustainable pattern.