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Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 28 Dec 2023, 05:54:12

You have an open mind to these issues Yellowcanoe, it's refreshing to read your posts. Certainly Russia has it problems but on the whole I say the nation has prospered under putin's rule. His first step was to throw out the western oligarchs that were looting the country, then he squashed some of the russian ones, the ones that weren't his backers. Oh sure he's an oligarch too but he doesn't go around slaughtering millions or oppressing the population with insane laws. It's pretty free in Russia from what I can see. I look at the US and Australia and I see everything run by faceless corporations just as greedy as the russian oligarchs so what's the difference there?

No I don't want to go to russia, Australia still has some wind in it's sails but the problem with all the western nations is that they have unfunded social security systems which will collapse one day. Then our people will be impoverished like the russians were after the collapse of the USSR. Perhaps the leadership there saw the writing on the wall and used the collapse as a cover story? How do you tell a nation that it's pension obligations will not be met? It will happen for us, the 20th century free money experiment, that has been tried in other cultures at other times, will fail.

As for those other cultures you have to ask yourself, do they really want western democracy? Western values. They have TV and the web too, do Afghan men want their sons to become transwomen? Have you heard what the talaban have been doing in the cities, rounding up all the drug addicts (lots of heroin addicts there) and shipping them off to rehab camps. That's something I would like to see happen here. No lawers, no social rights, just off to a farm camp somewhere to dry out and become useful members of society rather than stealing and living in the street. Sometimes the old ways are the best ways.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Dec 2023, 07:28:24

Lucky,

For starters, reported by ISW but from RUSSIAN STATE sources.
“ The Russian state-owned Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) found that Russians are increasingly less trusting of Russian state TV and are turning to social media and the internet for news.”

So my comment was about believing Russian propaganda. The rest of what you wrote is what is on your mind. There are no Saints and every culture has its problems. However it is clear and obvious Russian is suffering under Putin. That Russia has not collapsed yet is not a sign of victory.

No doubt Ukraine is in tough shape. It gave up its nukes tor a barren promise of protection, and it has been in invaded by a country 4 times its population. The wonder is that they did not collapse in the first 3 days.

There are very close cultural ties between Russia and Ukraine, if any country understood Russia it was Ukraine. The truth of your propositions has been put to the iron test, the people of Ukraine could have accepted Russian dominance, in those very early days, when the West Offered Zelensky a ride out, Ukraine could have, and by all rights should have collapsed. But they did not, they fought back with blood. Why? Because they were close to Russia, they knew Putin’s Russia, they saw a different life in the West, they saw Putin’s lies, and they have voted with their blood. The people on the ground, who were first hand effected, who had the best knowledge, rejected Putin’s lies. And still do.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby theluckycountry » Thu 28 Dec 2023, 13:40:08

Newfie wrote:Lucky,

For starters, reported by ISW but from RUSSIAN STATE sources.
“ The Russian state-owned Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) found that Russians are increasingly less trusting of Russian state TV and are turning to social media and the internet for news.”


Just like in America hey. But Russians probably believed the media a lot less that their American counterparts in the first place.

However it is clear and obvious Russian is suffering under Putin. That Russia has not collapsed yet is not a sign of victory.


Victory? What are you talking about Newfie? Russia collapse? I really don't understand where you are coming from. Russia is a major world power with almost limitless natural resources and it isn't going anywhere. Putin will retire soon and another Russian will take his place as president but I doubt they will ask to join NATO. Do you honestly believe America has a *manifold destiny* to bring democracy to every corner of the globe? I doubt the average person there struggling to pay their grocery bill believes that.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Dec 2023, 16:32:01

Lucky,

Do not get riled up. Try to keep to the topic. You are assuming a whole lot I did not say.

There are vast areas where we agree. But Russias position in the world is not one of them.

Russia, Putin, has suffered a tremendous self inflicted wound.

Why you can not see that I do not understand.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 28 Dec 2023, 20:31:38

Vietnam and other countries have been playing both sides for decades.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/worl ... d-war.html

The one that created incredible damage to itself is the U.S. It kept claiming that it stands for freedom and democracy. Instead, it employed realpolitik, with both parties using the military industrial complex and organizations like the IMF and the WB to manipulate, intervene in, or destabilize weaker countries through low intensity conflict and structural adjustment, and all to protect the dollar which mostly makes up the country's wealth, and mostly held in the hands of only 10 pct of its population.

Now, it's unable to stop an emerging multipolar world.

One of the recipients of that manipulation is Ukraine.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957

And in relation to the first point:

https://ptvnews.ph/us-under-secretary-f ... -is-in-ph/

https://www.philstar.com/the-freeman/op ... t-ukraine-
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 29 Dec 2023, 01:00:43

Putin is reportedly furious that the Ukrainians blew up another warship and its cargo when it was in port in Crimea

russia-ukraine-war-putin

Reports say Putin has sent the secret police to confiscate cell phones in Crimea, to prevent even more videos of his destroyed warship leaking onto the internet.

AND, Putin has reportedly ordered the arrest of numerous Russian air defense soldiers for failing to shoot down the Ukrianian missiles that blew up his ship. The arrested soldiers will be transferred to fighting units and sent to certain death at the front

No word yet on who Putin will get to operate his air defense system after he kills the existing air defense soldiers.

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Kill the Russian air defense soldiers who failed to prevent the Ukrianians from sinking ANOTHER Black Sea ship. KILL THEM NOW!!!!

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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 29 Dec 2023, 02:36:59

Newfie wrote:
Russia, Putin, has suffered a tremendous self inflicted wound.

Why you can not see that I do not understand.


Well it's probably because I wasn't indoctrinated from birth with the concept that Russia is Evil and always on the brink of destruction. I was watching "Sum of All Fears" again last night, a great movie, but as with all Hollywood movies the Russians are portrayed as evil murderers and the US, especially the President, as being level headed peacemakers. As is typical in these movies a wise American steps in at the last moment and averts disaster by persuading the russian president to "Back Down" It's so patently propagandist you have to turn off all rational thought to enjoy the flick. I know it's BS, but to the average American it's the "Truth" and simply confirms what they have believed (been taught) all along, that Russia is a loose cannon.

But as far as my comments being off-topic, what topic is that? That the US is Good and just and Russia is Evil and unjust? I'm sorry Newfie but you won't bring me across to your way of thinking, like people in most other countries we see the conflict between yours and Russia from a whole different perspective. We see Russia as a threat to the US empire's domination of global affairs. We must agree to disagree.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 29 Dec 2023, 02:54:50

ralfy wrote:Vietnam and other countries have been playing both sides for decades.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/worl ... d-war.html

The one that created incredible damage to itself is the U.S. It kept claiming that it stands for freedom and democracy. Instead ...both parties using the military industrial complex and organizations like the IMF and the WB to manipulate or destabilize weaker countries

Now, it's unable to stop an emerging multipolar world. One of the recipients of that manipulation is Ukraine.


Yes that's the truth of it. the ukraine region is simply a pawn in western hegemony. The Germans enslaved those people, then Russia oppressed it, then it got some autonomy, now it's in the meatgrinder again. Why? In a sentence, because the people don't know when to give in, they have a suicide pack going. Look at all the nations of Western europe in WWII. Once they were faced with German might they capitulated, no need to turn your nation into a smoldering ruin. It's the wise thing to do and all throughout history it has been the practice. Sure, fight if you have a chance of winning but don't stand in front of a steamroller. Look at the American indians, they resisted the White American conquest and were all but obliterated, their culture destroyed.

What a lot of posters here seem to forget is History. A mere 100 years ago the map of the world was totally different. Countries come and go and in 50 years the maps will be different again, *Ukraine* even if it could win this conflict would probably be gone again in a 50 years anyway so why bother caring.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 29 Dec 2023, 08:51:26

Lucky,

The Topic is Russia/Ukraine Crisis.

The West tolerated Putin when he first took Ukraine. He should have stopped there and consolidated his win.

It is hard to say with clarity what Putins goals are, if you listen to his paid shills it seems he wants to dominate the world. As a minimum he wants to bring Ukraine back under his sphere. His claim to de-Nazify and make Ukraine neutral is absurd on its face.

Before the recent attack Ukraine was not a member of NATO, there was no definite time line for it to join, if ever.

The situation is now that:
Ukraine has moved into the Western sphere. Even this refugees that left Ukraine to escape Russia are lost to Putin.
He has forced NATO countries to honor their NATO financial commitment goals. This influx of money is revitalizing their military. Germany is now making permanent foreign deployments.
Poland is doing massive rearmament.
South Korea and Japan, let alone your own Australia and Canada, have joined the coalition against Putin.
Finland and Sweden have foresaken their neutral status to join against Putin.
Yet Putin has stripped his Finnish birder defenses, those in the far east, and now taken S-400 systems from Kaliningrad.

In the meantime Putin has over 300,000 casualties, reported even greater numbers have fled the country, insurgents have blow up railway tunnels and bridges. His Black Sea Fleet has lost 20% of its fleet strength, and has retreated out of Crimea. That is to say Russia has less Naval capability than it had before annexing Crimea when they had leased facilities. They have lost right about 50% of their attack helicopters. Fixed wing forces have also taken heavy losses and have heen drawn back far behind the lines. Very high percentages of their best tank and artillery systems. Their military exports have tanked because they can not produce enough to meet the losses let alone export orders, which is just as well for the buyers because the equipment has not performed well.

And what would Putin gain for his efforts should the war settle on current lines? A bombed out country with its former industrial infrastructure blasted. A wasteland.

And yes Ukraine, 1/3 the size of Russia is suffering greatly also. All that proves is both sides suffer. To WIN Putin needs to gain more than he lost. That seems a more than impossible goal.

So much for the vaunted 3 day war.

Putin will go down in history, the operative word there being DOWN.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 29 Dec 2023, 20:03:16

Ukraine was being manipulated by the U.S. because the EU could not pull it away from an economic bloc consisting of post-Soviet republics and lead by Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957

That's the same U.S. that has had a long history of doing similar via color revolutions in many countries, if not worse.

That's why it's not helping Ukraine simply because the latter was invaded by Russia but because it gains from manipulating Ukraine and loses if Russia wins. That's why Russia has to "go down". But in the event that that doesn't happen (because the U.S. is running out of funny money to send to Ukraine and most Americans and citizens of NATO countries don't want to serve and don't want to fight, with two-thirds of Americans not even able to do something as simple as identify Ukraine on a map), then it can strike deals with "tyrannical" Russia. Why not? It's been striking deals with China, Saudi Arabia, and others, with even EU still dependent on fossil fuels from Russia, and even the U.S. and NATO still dependent on things like munition components from China.

With that, the operative word to consider is "realpolitik." OTOH, fanatics might take over and just press the button.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 29 Dec 2023, 23:57:27

ralfy wrote:the .... U.S. has had a long history of doing ... color revolutions


Actually, the color revolutions were carried out by the people of various captive nations in eastern Europe where the USSR had set up puppet communist governments after WWII.

Image
November 1989 in Prague----a popular revolution overthrows the puppet communist regime.

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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 30 Dec 2023, 09:23:56

No one here is saying the West are Saints. In general this is a battle of AH's. Plenty of blame to go around.

That does not remove the verifiable facts that Russia has been deeply wounded by Putin's war. Russia is far less well off than before the 2022 attack and will never see a net gain even if the war ended today.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 30 Dec 2023, 14:22:55

Ukraine responds to yesterdays massive Russian attack on civilian targets in Ukrainian cities by firing back at civilian targets in Russian cities

ukraine-mounts-massive-series-attacks-russian-city-killing-least-14

For almost two years Russia has been targeting civilian targets in Ukraine.

Now Ukraine is firing back at civilian targets in Russian cities.

The level of war madness has just gone up another notch------and its all that idiot Putin's fault.

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Putin is an idiot and his war against Ukraine is idiotic.

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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 30 Dec 2023, 16:26:07

ralfy wrote:...and most Americans and citizens of NATO countries don't want to serve and don't want to fight, with two-thirds of Americans not even able to do something as simple as identify Ukraine on a map)...


Congressional 'Cronies' Saddle The US With NATO Forever
Nobody in their right mind wants to be obliged to send their kid off to war in Eastern Europe if Romania and Moldova start bombing each other. Yet NATO membership requires just that.

And courtesy of the best congress money can buy, now power to withdraw from NATO has been removed from the U.S. president and enshrined in the well-greased palms of our legislators. More specifically, on December 16 congress approved a bill barring the president from unilaterally exiting NATO without legislative approval. This is a disaster. It’s aimed at Trump and one of the few decent things he might do if elected president, namely ditch that trouble-making albatross, NATO. Naturally president Joe Biden did not delay signing the National Defense Authorization Act, which includes this new NATO provision; so we’re stuck with it.

You doubt this is bad news?

Just look at NATO’s track record: bombing Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Libya and currently the abattoir NATO has made of Ukraine – or rather the disaster caused by NATO’s promise to absorb Ukraine. In Afghanistan, NATO performed with its usual, incomparable mediocrity, so the U.S. withdrew, convinced its puppet regime could hold off the Taliban for months. After all, the U.S. and NATO had bombed the country and the Taliban to smithereens – right? Well, it turned out our puppet couldn’t restrain the Taliban long enough for retreating U.S. jets to lift off from the tarmac. And what was NATO doing in Afghanistan for 20 years anyway? Don’t ask any of our military geniuses like David Petraeus, who kept telling us victory was just around the corner, and who even argued in the Atlantic, August 8 2022, that “we could have won.” Ha!

As for NATO’s 2011 military intervention in Libya, that was a debacle that transformed Africa’s most prosperous nation into a stone-age pit with open-air slave markets. The NATO 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia wasn’t much better, in that it should never have happened and arguably the only reason it did was so then President Bill “NATO Uber Alles” Clinton could distract the public from the lurid details of a sex scandal and impeachment...
https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/12/29 ... o-forever/

China and Russia now have a united nuclear pact, excluding the US. Any serious attack on Russia is an attack on China too. No wonder the west is treading lightly in this proxy war.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 06 Jan 2024, 14:08:23

ATESH partisans in Crimea are attacking Russian military positions and helping the Ukrainians pick targets for rocket attacks in Crimea

ATESH partisan fighters in Crimea

That explains how the Ukrainians are able to time their attacks to hit just when Russian ships are unloading their cargoes-----they've got spies and partisan fighters WITHIN Crimea helping them pick their targets.

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ATESH partisans in Crimea are helping Ukraine pick the best targets for rocket attacks...

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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 06 Jan 2024, 20:47:18

The axis of Evil!! We must defend against tyranny, against communism, against anyone who has control over cheap oil, minerals, and manufacturing, like we once did...

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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 06 Jan 2024, 20:50:22

I suspect it is not just there, those 2 rail line attacks a couple of weeks ago were thousands of miles from Ukraine. It is much more likely that some local, non-Moscowvite, minority was taking revenge.

Most Russians support the war, until they don’t. Then what recourse do they have? Vote Putin out? Putin has made a enemies throughout Russia, there are likely many who like to see him fall. There are aggrieved parties surrounding Russia. He keeps stripping his border regions of military capability to fight in Crimea. At some point some one will open a new front, internally or on a border, and he will not he able to respond. Putin likes to pretend he has all the time in the world for a protracted Ukraine campaign, but I think there are some hard limits to that.

Not predicting anything, pointing out possibilities. Look how the Germans collapsed in WWI. It was a sudden death brought on by a naval mutiny. The house of cards fell. Russia has had a long history of internal strife.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby careinke » Sat 06 Jan 2024, 23:11:05

Newfie wrote:Most Russians support the war, until they don’t. Then what recourse do they have? Vote Putin out? Putin has made a enemies throughout Russia, there are likely many who like to see him fall. There are aggrieved parties surrounding Russia. He keeps stripping his border regions of military capability to fight in Crimea. At some point some one will open a new front, internally or on a border, and he will not he able to respond. Putin likes to pretend he has all the time in the world for a protracted Ukraine campaign, but I think there are some hard limits to that.


Maybe the Russians are KLINGONs. :shock:

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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 07 Jan 2024, 02:15:37

careinke wrote:
Maybe the Russians are KLINGONs. :shock:

Peace


It seems unlikely that the Russians are KLINGONS, since KLINGONS are purely fictional.

More likely some Russians actually think Putin is a good leader and believe that Russia is perfectly justified in invading other countries, while others try to ignore politics, and still others would like to see Putin deposed and Russia transformed into a modern democratic state aligned with Europe instead of China and North Korea.

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Russians aren't Klingons.....however, Putin himself is much like a comic book villain

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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 07 Jan 2024, 09:00:52

Carinkie,

Russians are simply humans. As are Germans, Japanese, Chinese, and Koreans. But within the last 100 years we have both viewed those cultures in vastly different lights and they have behaved by vastly different standards. But they are all humans as are we.

The differences between those peoples within their own cultures in this short space of time demonstrates how malleable and flexible we humans are. Given the right propaganda and enough time a reasonable individual can be convinced a square peg can be driven into a round hole.

And that is what is happening everywhere, far and near. We are being drowned in a tsunami of propaganda. All ethics becomes situational. It becomes very difficult to identify and follow a sensible path. We are all subject to this, which can be somewhat mitigated by turning off the most egregious media.
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