[Tanada]

Not predicting anything, pointing out possibilities. Look how the Germans collapsed in WWI. It was a sudden death brought on by a naval mutiny. The house of cards fell. Russia has had a long history of internal strife.

History is written by the victors and that German naval revolt of 1918 is a prime example.
For a very long time, nearly a century, great emphasis was put on the fact that Communist elements led the revolt. What they leave out is WHY the common sailors will willing to follow them when the penalty if unsuccessful was death by firing squad.

Well it turns out to be pretty simple at that if you look at just the facts. The officers manning the German High Seas Fleet were almost all of the nobility class with long traditions demanding death before dishonor as a root principal. After the failure of the spring 1918 offensive which was a go for broke gamble with fresh American troops arriving to support the allies almost daily everyone from the newest recruit to the Kaiser could see the war was lost.

Then with the troops knowing nothing they did could shift the balance in favor of victory the Noble Officer of the High Seas Fleet decided they would go out in a blaze of glory, sailing out to fact the combined American and UK naval fleets in a glorious death in battle.

Thing is the not so noble poor and working class sailors who manned that fleet, many of whom were drafted into the service, rightly saw that this was a suicide mission to protect the "honor" of the privileged noble class who had drive the German nation into defeat. Rather than swallowing their pride and accepting they had been defeated they wanted to all die and take as many of the allied naval forces as possible with them to punish the allies for winning both by costing them forces and by removing their ships from being divided up as war booty for the victors.

The common sailors revolted in the face of orders to commit pointless suicide that would in know way help their nation or their families in the post war peace settlements. However post war those same sailors who had been sent to interments in New Jersey and Scappa Flow Scotland denied the same ships from Allied service by scuttling them. A couple were raised and later scrapped but several of the scuttled wrecks remain at the Scappa Flow.

[Plantagenet]

History is written by the victors and that German naval revolt of 1918 is a prime example.
For a very long time, nearly a century, great emphasis was put on the fact that Communist elements led the revolt. What they leave out is WHY the common sailors will willing to follow them when the penalty if unsuccessful was death by firing squad.....
The common sailors revolted in the face of orders to commit pointless suicide that would in no way help their nation or their families in the post war peace settlements.

Thanks Tanada. Thats very interesting......I didn't know about that historical event.

It reminds me of the mutiny on the Russian ship POTEMKIN in 1905, after the Russian Pacific Fleet was defeated and destroyed by the Japanese. Morale in the remaining Russian ships was very low, the Russian officers were corrupt and incompetent, and so the Russian sailors staged a successful mutiny.

I wonder if something similar might happen today. The Ukrainians have sunk and destroyed about half of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and yet the Russian high command keeps sending ship after ship back to Crimea only for the Ukrainians to blow them to pieces.

Surely the common sailors in the Russian Black Sea Fleet are noticing that half their ships have already been put of commission, and every time another Russian ship sails for Crimea it doesn't return. Under those circumstances, who could blame them for mutinying against the corrupt and incompetent Russian officers who command the Russian Black Sea Fleet, just as their ancestors did in the Potemkin rebellion over a century ago.


Will Russian sailors mutiny again the way their ancestors did on the Battleship Potemkin in 1905?

Cheers!

[yellowcanoe]

The common sailors revolted in the face of orders to commit pointless suicide that would in know way help their nation or their families in the post war peace settlements. However post war those same sailors who had been sent to interments in New Jersey and Scappa Flow Scotland denied the same ships from Allied service by scuttling them. A couple were raised and later scrapped but several of the scuttled wrecks remain at the Scappa Flow.

It certainly would have been suicide given the additional US naval forces to fight alongside the RN and the fact that not all the battle damage to German ships had been repaired after the Battle of Jutland. The resources required to repair the ships was more urgently required by the army or for submarine construction. BTW the scuttled ships at Scapa flow have been a source of steel uncontaminated by nuclear radionuclides introduced into the atmosphere by the two atomic bombs dropped on Japan and nuclear bomb testing.

[ralfy]

Related:

"FROM WOUNDED KNEE TO YEMEN: U.S. MILITARY INTERVENTIONS SINCE 1890"

https://sites.evergreen.edu/zoltan/interventions/

[EnergyUnlimited]

I wonder if something similar might happen today. The Ukrainians have sunk and destroyed about half of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and yet the Russian high command keeps sending ship after ship back to Crimea only for the Ukrainians to blow them to pieces.

Surely the common sailors in the Russian Black Sea Fleet are noticing that half their ships have already been put of commission, and every time another Russian ship sails for Crimea it doesn't return. Under those circumstances, who could blame them for mutinying against the corrupt and incompetent Russian officers who command the Russian Black Sea Fleet, just as their ancestors did in the Potemkin rebellion over a century ago.

Naval assets are not that important for Russian attempts to win something what is overwhelmingly a land war in Ukraine.
At some point they will likely cut off Ukrainian sea access by taking Odessa and pushing up to Russian controlled Transdniestria region in Moldova.
All naval assets what Russia needs are those nuke subs - just to remind US not to do stupid things because end of the world (means also end of US) might happen in no time at all - but these have harbors in Arctic.

Current situation is indicating developments which are going to curtail or outright end existence of Ukraine as a going concern.
Russian objection is to take all land east of Dnieper and most likely Black Sea coast and then either take rest by installing puppet government in Kiev or abandon it to leave either a failed state or a NATO protectorate which is a very costly adventure to maintain (and proceed with further war if attempts are made to incorporate this protectorate as NATO member).

Ukraine have missed opportunities to negotiate some acceptable deal before war have started and in initial phases of this war and now they will lose far more than otherwise would happen.

West is gradually losing global contest - what is also seen in Ukraine and developments there.
Are you aware that BRICS have few new members this year - Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Argentina, UAE, Ethiopia and now it is most powerful economic block in terms of industrial output and also in terms of numbers of citizens?

[theluckycountry]

The Average American consumer is completely in the dark about the purpose of the conflict in the ukraine. They think it has to do with supporting freedom and liberty and democracy and all the other drivel the TV set has foisted on them. Of course it has nothing to do with that at all, when did the US corporation ever care about anything other than it's own profits. Still, to give the taxpayers money to arms dealers and other corporations on the gravy train they have to have a reason, so go liberate the ukraine from the evil clutches of the insane cancer ridden almost dead putin.

Then we see the poor palestinian peoples being oppressed by evil greedy Israel. No matter that they are all basically domestic terrorists, that they started all this by crossing a border and massacring nearly a thousand young unarmed jews, raping and pillaging. Oh no, they are the oppressed. But the US just spent 20 years and untold trillions fighting the exact same peoples in the middle east because, in George Bush's words "they want to come here and kill us". I am afraid the average US consumer is basically a tennis ball now being racketed from one side of the court to the other. Their brain kept spinning with all these 'tragedies' and 'threats'. No one is thinking at this point, they are simply reacting, which is exactly what the rulers require.

Das Kristallnacht

[Newfie]

Tanada,

Thanks for the refresher on the details.

The point I was driving for was tat the end came abruptly. Those " in thr know" may have seen it coming, I kinda doubt those at our level had that insight. That is why I amnshybof predictions.

[Plantagenet]

Ukraine successfully attacks the Kerch bridge again, cutting off the link to mainland Russia again

BOOM!

No problem....the Russians can just load up one of their transport ships with all the equipment and explosives and use the ship to transport the military everything to Crimea.....

oh wait......

The last two transport ships were blown up as well just as they came into dock, destroying the dock infrastructure and inflicting many casualties on the Russians......

So if Russia can't bring in supplies to Crimea by the bridge...or by ship....or by rail....or by road......does that mean Crimea is surrounded?


The bridge is down, the Russian ships transport ships have been sunk, the railroad link to Russia is cut, and the roads are destroyed. I guess that means Crimea is now more or less surrounded and cut off from Russian re-supply....

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

Just a point to keep track of, Crimea is a net food calorie exporter, by a large margin. Damaging the Kerch bridge is a nuisance effect. It does not put the peninsula in grave danger of shortages. They remain an energy importer, but I fear UA is unwilling to attack the e-bridge given that Russia can and would destroy their energy supply and production in retaliation.

Unwilling to pay the price. The whole NATO story with UA/RU boiled down in a single sentence.

[Newfie]

Crimea a net exporter? Everything I have read said they were reliant upon the Dneiper canal for irrigation water and without it they were not even self sufficient.

Perhaps you meant Ukraine?

[AgentR11]

Crimea a net exporter? Everything I have read said they were reliant upon the Dneiper canal for irrigation water and without it they were not even self sufficient.

Perhaps you meant Ukraine?

Nope. Crimea produces MORE with that canal water of course. But the population is fairly low and the airable land is quite high. Its not a desert.

A good portion of the wheat that Russia sends to Syria comes from there.

I might try and get myself motivated enough to find current numbers, but they'd either come from Western sources that are motivated to underreport, and Russian sources who are motivated to overreport. So I dunno. But they are exporting food calories originating in Crimea. Ship spotters in Istanbul like to take photos of ships laden with "plundered grain" originating from Crimea headed to Syria.

My understanding is that drinking water is certainly a problem from time to time, but its a problem that originates in horrible water infrastructure and less than ideal catchment.

Also... food variety. Not so great. lol. But that's not a sustainable calorie problem, more a problem of desiring an orange and not being able to find one/afford one.

[AgentR11]

Sorta an overview. Remember my focus is on FOOD CALORIES, not dollar value which is an economic thing and not an issue of siege state conditions.

https://tass.com/economy/745281

But again, Russian source. (2014, post Canal closure) Not sure where one could get valid, unbiased numbers in the current climate. It is clear to me though that Crimea's ability to import stuff is strained, yet there's no shortage of bread, and the occasional accidental exposure of price / availability seems to indicate sufficient staple wheat products for the population.

One can live a very long time with bread, dirty water, and a cheap, low quality multi-vitamin. All of which exist in Crimea.

Thus, no siege condition.

Cut the e-bridge, and endure the consequences if you want to have an impact.


a little math...
1,100,000 tons of cereal grain
3,000,000 kcal food value per ton
/ 2,280,000 people
/ 365 days in a year
=~ 4,000 kcal of food value per person per day.

They'd get very, very fat trying to eat everything they grow in Crimea, and that's without Canal water.

[AgentR11]

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N2ZD0SS/

western source, sorta. Same picture, more recent too.

[careinke]

You do not need irrigation to grow wheat, you do need water. Our wheatland in Eastern Oregon has been producing wheat for well over 100 years without irrigation. Most years it works just fine, for the very few bad years, we have crop insurance. Crimea receives about the same amount of rainfall as we do, although I don't think they have crop insurance.

If they are living on a diet of bread, dirty water, and a vitamin they are going to need a LOT of dialysis centers, heart surgeons, and Insulin production.

Properly raised, grass fed, beef/sheep/goats/ etc is a better solution. Much easier to do, plus it is scalable down to the family level.

Peace

[AgentR11]

If they are living on a diet of bread, dirty water, and a vitamin they are going to need a LOT of dialysis centers, heart surgeons, and Insulin production.

I exaggerate their plight a bit to make a point and demonstrate the raw minimum subsistence level they have available on the Peninsula, even were it to be truly cut off from external supplies. Which is clearly not the case... at least not yet, as ships are still being loaded with excess wheat, in Crimea, and sailed out of the Black Sea to ports in Syria and Africa. MarineTraffic.com also shows a lot of commercial activity on the Eastern side of the Peninsula between Kursk, Rostov-on-Don, and Novorossiysk; though it appears ships are turning off their transponder doodads as they cross or dock in Crimea. They seem to be doing bridge repair work and/or extra inspections as traffic is backed up both North and South waiting to be cleared through the strait. Kerch to/from Rostov though is completely unhindered, and so anything available in Russia is available in Crimea. Oranges are pretty pricey I bet, if available at all! That'll show em! (/s)

A notable success for the West seems to be that commercial traffic has abandoned Sevastopol; not that it was a large commercial port to begin with, but its the thought that counts, I guess.

[theluckycountry]

Ukraine successfully attacks the Kerch bridge again, cutting off the link to mainland Russia again

Oh dear, so the definition of winning has gone from major counter offensive to reclaim ukrainian lands to little drone strikes within an occupied territory. Can't you see how pathetic you sound plant? Why don't you put a spin on the Afghanistan campaign too and give us a real good laugh. Explain in your own terms how the US retreat in disarray was actually a planned counter offensive that will finally bring the Taliban to heel

[Plantagenet]

the definition of winning has gone from major counter offensive to reclaim ukrainian lands to little drone strikes within an occupied territory.

What strange ideas you have.

Drone strikes aren't "the definition of winning", as you falsely claim.

They are just drone strikes.

But when hundreds of drone strikes are carried out as part of plan, they can have a signifiant impact.

For instance, Ukraine is clearly making good progress at destroying the entire air defense system in Crimea.

ukraine-destroys-russian-air-defense-Crimea

There has been news story after story about Ukrainian missile and drone strikes taking out Russian anti-aircraft installations. The Russian air defense system over Crimea is now so degraded that the Ukrainians are taking out ship after ship of the Black Sea Fleet when they leave their hidey holes and get anywhere near Crimea. And I've lost count of how many times the Ukrainians have blow up part of the Russian bridge to Crimea....they just patiently wait for the Russians to complete their latest repairs and then they blow it up again.


The only Russian bridge to Crimea goes KA BOOM! Again.

Cheers!

[Newfie]

A short video analyzing Mike Johnsons Ukraine strategy.

https://youtu.be/jHcDdUTL6oc?si=H9dVkdN_0YttafLp

[theluckycountry]

Looks like the baton has been passed to the Limeys.

Zelensky Hails 'Unprecedented' $3BN+ Arms Deal With UK As US Supplies Have Stopped

"Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain visited Kyiv on Friday to announce that he would send more than $3 billion in military assistance to Ukraine in the next financial year ...The British aid for the coming year represents an increase of 200 million pounds, about $255 million,

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ve-stopped

To put things in perspective

The US is the largest provider of military assistance to Ukraine ...$43.9 billion of that assistance has been provided since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

... the UK is currently the second largest donor. The UK has committed £4.6 billion in military assistance to Ukraine so far (£2.3 billion in 2022 and a commitment to match that funding in 2023).

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/re ... /cbp-9477/

Britian's NHS (health) budget is £181.7 billion so I guess in the scheme of things the war aid is not that great. A few thousand more English will just have to die due to lack of health care, as they do now, so that a few tens of thousands of ukrainian solders can die on the battlefield of an unwinnable war. It all makes perfect sense on an overpopulated planet.

[careinke]

A short video analyzing Mike Johnsons Ukraine strategy.

https://youtu.be/jHcDdUTL6oc?si=H9dVkdN_0YttafLp

For some reason I get a bad feeling every time I listen to him. I'm skeptical he was ever involved in actual combat, and feel most of his beliefs are based primarily on academics.

I wish I was one of his students, we would have had some great and lively discussions. Of course he would fail me.

Peace