Newfie wrote:Not predicting anything, pointing out possibilities. Look how the Germans collapsed in WWI. It was a sudden death brought on by a naval mutiny. The house of cards fell. Russia has had a long history of internal strife.
History is written by the victors and that German naval revolt of 1918 is a prime example.
For a very long time, nearly a century, great emphasis was put on the fact that Communist elements led the revolt. What they leave out is WHY the common sailors will willing to follow them when the penalty if unsuccessful was death by firing squad.
Well it turns out to be pretty simple at that if you look at just the facts. The officers manning the German High Seas Fleet were almost all of the nobility class with long traditions demanding death before dishonor as a root principal. After the failure of the spring 1918 offensive which was a go for broke gamble with fresh American troops arriving to support the allies almost daily everyone from the newest recruit to the Kaiser could see the war was lost.
Then with the troops knowing nothing they did could shift the balance in favor of victory the Noble Officer of the High Seas Fleet decided they would go out in a blaze of glory, sailing out to fact the combined American and UK naval fleets in a glorious death in battle.
Thing is the not so noble poor and working class sailors who manned that fleet, many of whom were drafted into the service, rightly saw that this was a suicide mission to protect the "honor" of the privileged noble class who had drive the German nation into defeat. Rather than swallowing their pride and accepting they had been defeated they wanted to all die and take as many of the allied naval forces as possible with them to punish the allies for winning both by costing them forces and by removing their ships from being divided up as war booty for the victors.
The common sailors revolted in the face of orders to commit pointless suicide that would in know way help their nation or their families in the post war peace settlements. However post war those same sailors who had been sent to interments in New Jersey and Scappa Flow Scotland denied the same ships from Allied service by scuttling them. A couple were raised and later scrapped but several of the scuttled wrecks remain at the Scappa Flow.