[Plantagenet]

Refineries... could be something pretty simple from Putin's rationale. Right now Russians have a *lot* of freedom of movement internally; Putin is KGB, maybe that bugs him in some fundamental way. What better way to restrict movement than to put limits on individual purchase amounts of gas/diesel fuel. And limits like that could best be accepted if there's a reason for it. Maybe they'll introduce ration coupons or something that give each family an allocated amount of fuel each month.

just a thought.

Thats an excellent idea, R11.

That would nicely explain how the Ukrainians are able to keep blowing up Russian refineries.

It almost has to be that Putin is intentionally leaving the Russian oil refineries undefended and also allowing the Primitive Ukrainian drones to keep getting through.

Russia has very good anti-aircraft capabilities (look how Russians shot down that Dutch civilian airliner, for example). The Russians should be able to detect the Ukrianian drones when they come across the Russian border--- hundreds of miles from their eventual targets. After the Russian air defense systems detects them, they should be able to track them, and then It should only take a good anti-aircraft battery---or even just couple of guys with machine guns ---- to knock the low flying and slow moving Ukrainian drones down,

But it isn't happening........ergo Putin is letting it happen.


What a devious and clever man that Putin is!!!! Intentionally allowing his own oil refineries to be destroyed. What an AMAZINGLY CUNNING PLAN!!!!

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

Lyiv got pounded pretty bad last night, I don't think Putin is buying the "ISIS did it" song and dance we're doing over here. Supposedly a series of a dozen or so regular cruise missile hits followed by some kinzels..

[Plantagenet]

Ukraine sank two more transport ships from the rapidly shrinking Russian Black Sea Fleet off the coast of Crimea....only this time instead of sea drones they used anti-ship missiles to blow up the Russian ships.

Ukraine sinks TWO Russian Black Sea ships in one day!

The Russians must be pretty desperate to get supplies into Crimea to keep sending transport ships into harms way. Looks like they thought that if they sent two at once at least one might get through, but no such luck. The Ukrainians sank them both.


TWO RUSSIAN BLACK SEA SHIPS SUNK BY UKRAINE iN ONE DAY!

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

Kharkov is now without power, likely for the duration of the conflict. All generation and transmission has been hit. Nothing left.

I saw the pics of the hits, I think they got one, I don't think they got the other; looks to me it fell short hitting the pier. Neither sunk; the images show one at a pier and one supposedly being maneuvered into a floating dry dock.

Also, for what its worth, those LST's aren't for restocking Crimea; they have mostly been used for restocking Syria. Running between Tartus and Sevastopol/Novorossiysk. They did get a solid triple tap on the building used to communicated with black sea subs, solid progress there. The Bridge you so love to talk about when damaged is currently open for traffic. We definitely ought to be taking advantage of the situation in Syria though, sitting around watching opportunity pass you by is stupid.

Also, my old test remains. The lines. They are moving West. That's the wrong direction last I checked.

[jato0072]

I always thought of Russia as a great land power. I know their SSN / SSBN fleet represents a potential threat to commercial shipping around the world in addition to their nuclear ballistic missile capability.

Russia's operational nuclear force consists of 11 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs), separated into three classes. The Delta and Boreii, the current active classes, can carry up to 16 SLBMs (the SS-N-23 “Skiff” and the Bulava SS-N-32) that are capable of delivering up to 624 nuclear warheads.

The USA has 14 SSBNs, all Ohio Class designed in the early 1970s.

Is Russian Navy bigger than US Navy?
China has the largest navy with 730 military vessels, followed by Russia with 598 and North Korea with 519. The United States comes in fourth with 484 naval vessels.

We are seeing how new technologies are being used in near-peer land battles. It will be interesting to see what happens in a near-peer naval battle. Not to mention naval vs. commercial shipping circa WW2.

[AgentR11]

Careful with the Russian fleet numbers; they tend to leave ships on the active list long past their actual retirement date, it allows them to keep the crews on the active list, thus building their budgetary size, which is of course the purpose of life for a bureaucratic organization. China's numbers are legit though I think they have a focus on smaller missile ships, having only just dipped their toes into the idea of carrier groups.

[Plantagenet]

those LST's aren't for restocking Crimea; they have mostly been ... restocking Syria.

Thats clearly nonsense.

Ukraine had previously blown up several of the Russian LSTs just as they were docking in Crimea----they were loaded with ammunition and supplies for Crimea and blew up in spectacular fashion as the Russian ammo all exploded on the ships. AND two more Russian LSTs were hit by Ukrainian missiles just a couple of days ago right off the Crimean coast.. The ammunition and supplies on these LSTs were clearly intended for Crimea---not Syria---as shown by the fact that they sailed to Crimea and not Syria.

Think about it, R11. If the supplies were meant for Syria then the ships would've sailed to Syria!!!


Crimea and Syria are two different places. If the supplies on all the sunken Russian LSTs hit as they tried to dock in Crimea were actually meant for Syria then the ships would've sailed to Syria!!!

In any case the bottom line here is a large number of Russian Black Sea Fleet ships won't be sailing to Crimea, Syria, or anywhere else ever again as they've been sunk by the Ukrainians.

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

those LST's aren't for restocking Crimea; they have mostly been ... restocking Syria.

Thats clearly nonsense.

Maybe, hang on. Most recent transit pic I have is 2022. I think I forgot something about Turkey closing the Bosphorus to all combatant vessels. Only grain haulers are travelling to Syria from Russia/Crimea/Ukraine.

They *WERE* used for that purpose, but I assure you they're not the primary supply route into Crimea for military hardware. They just aren't THAT big, they are insufficient.

And they aren't sunk. They may be out of service though.

As to the location of Crimea, everyone knows where it is. Its in the Center/North of the Black Sea; stuff, primarily "Plundered" grain (one of the ship spotters calls it that, I like) is loaded in Crimea and shipped to Syria. Last plundered grain pic was on March 18th, so they're still running. Millions of tons of grain have been shipped that way, FROM Crimea, to Syria.

(sorry for the edits, got started too early without coffee!!)

[AgentR11]

search plundered grain nenashev will give you a bunch of images of what I'm talking about. THAT is what a resupply ship looks like.

I suppose my primary point here is that Crimea is a EXPORTER, primarily of grain. The volume of that export is eye-watering, and illegal I think (I'm not a lawyer, and don't play one on tv) In any event, they aren't dependent upon the mainland for their food, and what they need wouldn't come in at Sevastopol, it'd come in at Kerch on civilian freighters from Novorosysk and Rostov-on-Don to the North East.

Armor can cross the bridge if needed, but there just hasn't been any ground fighting in Crimea, no losses to replace.

[AgentR11]

Things are moving too fast to have a conversation about! lol.

Traffic on the bridge *may* have just been suspended due to missile attack in Crimea. Trying to find out!

It was open on the 22nd... ugg.

And Yandex traffic map shows it with normal traffic now.... /sigh

[AgentR11]

double lol, now it shows closed as of an hour ago or so... traffic backed up again.

I must get to doing some other stuff but I'll be back!!

[AgentR11]

triple lol... open again.
They are seriously getting a 9/11 effect from this event. Probably shutting the bridge every time some dog triggers on powder residue in the midst of a war zone.

[Plantagenet]

Russia conducted a hypersonic missile attack on a Ukrianian government building in downtown Kiev this morning, in a possible attempt to assassinate the top leaders in the Ukrianian government and intelligence agencies



[Russian-hypersonic-missiles-pummel-kiev-after-ukraine-drone-damages-rosneft-refinery

THis marks another major escalation by Putin.

If the top echelons of the Ukrianian govemrent survived the assassination attempt, and if the Ukrainians decide to mount a serous response , as they most likely will, this could result in things getting much worse in the Russia-Ukraine war. The Ukrainians are totally outmatched by the Russian superpower state that attacked them, but the Ukrianians do have the ability to strike back with their new brave little long distance drones.. They could continue and expand their attacks on Russian oil refineries, which are already degrading Russia's ability to produce jet fuel and gasoline for internal use. Or if Putin pushes the Ukrainians too far they could respond by going after Russia's oil export terminals with their new long-distance drones.

Cheers!

[AgentR11]

Read that this was an attack by a heretofore unused type of hypersonic vehicle, as opposed to just a ballistic missile mounted to and fired from an airplane... None of their missiles up till this point have required silicon that they can't produce themselves, but I have doubts about a hypersonic glide vehicle being driven by chip tech that is as old as that. Russia simply isn't a big enough market to support new silicon developments; so either they bought a bunch before sanctions, or the Chinese are feeding them new tech despite sanctions.

China has been more aggressive in chasing off Philippine boats trying to get to those islands that are in dispute...

[theluckycountry]

Speaking of the plunge in Russian refinery runs, last week we learned that none other than Joe Biden himself slammed Ukraine for daring to attack the heart of Russian oil infrastructure as the guaranteed outcome are much higher gas and oil prices, which make it less likely the Fed will be able to cut rates, and thus ensure that Biden's already abysmal approval rating will slide even further. No wonder the FT said that the "White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity." An NSC spokesperson told the FT that "we do not encourage or enable attacks inside of Russia."

Translation: we encourage them not to attack Russian refineries.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-s ... sia-orders
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 024-03-25/

I could well imagine Russia allowing certain drones to fulfill their mission, and Russia's mission, to cripple the Western economies through higher oil and gas prices. Just as the US ignored it's intellegence reports and stood back and let the Japanese attack Pearl and it's outdated battle wagons, moving the necessary carriers south out of harms way of course. Yes that really did happen. Like the Gulf of Tonkin and many other convenient attacks on US interests.

The Big Picture:

Why didn't Russia repair the Gas pipelines to the West? Because it wants to starve the west of energy. That's what you do in War, it's why the British and Americans went into the Med in WWII. Russia will cry about it's lost refinery production, and compensate, by curtailing exports
Who won WWII? The nation with the biggest oil supply on the day.

General Erwin Rommel, “the Desert Fox,” was reputedly the best tactician in the entire German Army. For years, he led his panzers across multiple campaigns in North Africa. But what was a German army doing zipping across the deserts of Libya?

Simple: Rommel was trying to capture the Suez Canal, and with it the route to the precious, untapped oil fields of the Middle East. From the deserts of North Africa to the icy waters of the Atlantic Ocean, the jungles of the South Pacific and the skies above Romania, World War II was defined by a struggle over a single resource - petroleum.

... But the German advance was turned back at Stalingrad. After the initial shock of the invasion, the Soviet army recovered its strength and began pushing the German forces from Russia. Hitler’s armies failed to secure access to Russian oil, and in 1943 began a slow retreat, beaten back by overwhelming Soviet forces.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/H ... Nazis.html

Russia didn't defeat the German's with superior soldiers, but with the limitless tanks and planes that it built with it's vast oil reserves. WWIII three though may not involve that technology, instead relying on nuclear weapons. In that event having hyper-sonic delivery vehicles will be the order of the day.

Late to the party

This story was updated March 20, 2024, with a statement from Lockheed Martin.
The U.S. Air Force on Sunday carried out what is expected to be the final test of the hypersonic AGM-183A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon. The service did not say whether the test was successful.

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2024/03 ... c-missile/

[Newfie]

Another very interesting analysis by Neils Puck Anders, this time on the ISIS attack and how the info space is playing out.

About 8 minutes.

https://youtu.be/xovjFeP2kEQ?si=eMTpEMG5EPL5NO_s

[AgentR11]

I'm having a hard time with the ISIS line... the guys didn't commit suicide, they did it for money; seems a bit off the general jihadist behavioral pattern there... Seems they could have done much more harm than they did, especially to first responders, had they been willing to linger at the site.

Not that it matters all that much, Russia is just going to say whatever serves their interests best, we're going to say what serves ours, and the truth is going to be darn near unknowable.

I have an idea!!! How bout some rogue Azov/RS did it, *without* consent of the UA government, stash a few guns and cash, find some low IQ patsies, pitch a good bit of bs mixed of jihad, money, easy life in Europe as a hero. I could buy that story. Guns easy, the dollar amounts involved weren't hard to come by, plenty of Central Asians with a beef against Russia for all kinds of rational and not so rational reasons...

[theluckycountry]

I'm having a hard time with the ISIS line... the guys didn't commit suicide, they did it for money; seems a bit off the general jihadist behavioral pattern there... Seems they could have done much more harm than they did, especially to first responders, had they been willing to linger at the site..

Many lived there and some were were nationalized Russians, not the diehard jihadist stripe at all. Did the FSB have prior knowledge and allow the attack? Did Israel's intelligence operatives really not know about the impending Hamas attack? Or did they allow it as a excuse to solve a decades old problem, and secure the vast offshore Gaza gas fields for themselves? All it cost was a thousand drug addled Ravers and some other collateral's. Not the sort of people the government would want around anyway.

You'd have to be stupid to believe anything at face value that comes out in the press, especially these days. And the Russian press especially since they are the masters of propaganda. We'll see what happens in the weeks ahead.

Russian news reports identified the gunmen as citizens of Tajikistan, a former Soviet republic in Central Asia that is predominantly Muslim and borders Afghanistan. Up to 1.5 million Tajiks have worked in Russia and many have Russian citizenship.

This part no doubt is true.

"Radical Islamists" murdered 140 innocent russians, Well perhaps it's time to clamp down on Islam? Tajikistan... I started a thread on that a little while ago. Perhaps there is more to the rathole than meets the eye?
One thing is for sure, the muslims in Russia won't be able to roast a bagel now without a camera watching them.

[theluckycountry]

Another very interesting analysis by Neils Puck Anders, this time on the ISIS attack and how the info space is playing out.

"It caught the Russian government by surprise, and It's inconvenient for them, because the last thing they want to do now is have to focus their attention on central Asia or the middle east, they want to focus on ukraine..."

Perhaps Anders isn't aware that Russia is very active militarily in Syria and has good political control in central asia. He makes the same mistake as many Western analysts, that of underestimating Russia. The murder of 140 people is nothing to the government of Russia, meaningless! And in return they get the sympathy of the Woke West and license to crack down in all manner of ways. And probably have the Tajikistanians on the back foot.

Since the first outbreak of war in the ukraine the western peoples have been slowly but surely turning against the "Russia is evil" meme. Not because Russia isn't! But because the Western nations overplayed their hand and that has led to a lot of pain in Western nations. Petrol goes up at the pump in the US. Why? Because the ukraine attacked russian refineries.

There is an old saying. "Let sleeping bears lie"

[theluckycountry]

Russian Warships Enter Red Sea As Rival US-Led Coalition Patrols

The Russian navy’s Pacific Fleet has confirmed that it sent several of its warships through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and into the Red Sea, at a moment Houthi attacks against international shipping is ongoing, and as the waters are still being patrolled by the US-led military coalition.

State-run TASS describes that the warships are carrying out "assigned tasks within the framework of the long-range sea campaign." The ultimate destination of the vessels has not been disclosed.

The Varyag and Marshal Shaposhnikov had earlier this month participated in joint naval drills involving Iran, China, and Russia in the Indian Ocean - which Moscow described at the time as practicing "safety in maritime economic activities."

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... on-patrols

The BRICS preparing to take over the duty of policing the world's oceans when the U.S. empire withdraws.

The Houthi of course are sworn not to attack Russian vessels, being as they are the allies of their backers, the Iranians.