theluckycountry wrote:Of course kub believes that because you can buy them off the shelf today cars will be running them tomorrow. That's nuclear fusion thinking, and who takes that seriously anymore outside of a bunch of toads in white jackets.
Wow. A lot to unpack there. Where to begin?
First off, you were so adamant that sodium ion batteries are not even being built at all. Does this mean you finally acknowledge sodium ion batteries are being built and sold commercially? Seems like you have taken a step forward. But then you equate them to fusion, which is not in fact in commercial use? One step forward, two steps backwards I guess.
Second, just because a technology is in production doesn't mean I think it will be running in cars. Where do you come up with this crap?
Third, forget tomorrow, EVs are already being made with sodium ion batteries today.
theluckycountry wrote:Sharing a similar working principle to Li-ion batteries, the commercial Na-ion batteries exhibit competitive low-cost advantages and exceptional electrochemical properties, which can go from 80% charge in 15 min and maintain 90% of its nameplate capacity at −20°C.11,12,13 However, the reported commercial Na-ion batteries still suffered from the limited energy densities of 160 Wh kg−1, which is only 50%-80% of that of commercial Li-ion batteries, hindering their practical applications in the large-scale energy storage market.
Yes, they are lower density than lithium ion.
However, they are already developing the 2nd and 3rd generation of these products that have higher energy density. The exact same sort of trend we have seen playout in NMC and LFP with rising energy densities.
On December 28, 2023, China-based battery maker Farasis Energy saw a vehicle equipped with its sodium-ion batteries being rolled off the production line of JMEV, an EV brand of Chinese Jiangling Motors Group.
According to Farasis, the compact JMEV EV3 can enable a driving range of 251 kilometers, fulfilling the need for commuting and cross-city travel. The company said its mass-produced sodium-ion batteries have an energy density between 140Wh/kg and 160Wh/kg.
Farasis said it plans to release the second generation of its sodium-ion batteries in 2024 and bring the energy density to between 160Wh/kg and 180Wh/kg. In 2026, the density will be upgraded to between 180Wh/kg and 200Wh/kg to satisfy more applications.
China sees two EVs powered by sodium-ion batteries rolled off production linesNorthvolt, backed by Volkswagen, BlackRock and Goldman Sachs, is Europe’s only major homegrown electric battery manufacturer.
Sodium-ion technology will continue to evolve
One of the major disadvantages of sodium-ion batteries is their relatively low energy density – the amount of energy stored relative to the battery’s volume. Lower energy density means bulkier and heavier batteries.
Northvolt’s new battery has an energy density of more than 160 watt-hours per kilogramme, an energy density close to that type of lithium batteries typically used in energy storage, where size is not a problem. The Swedish group said that their battery has been designed for electricity storage plants, but in the future could be used in electric vehicles.
As the energy density of sodium-ion batteries continues to increase, so their share in the passenger EV market is set to rise.
The potential success of sodium-ion batteries would depend on how quickly battery manufacturers could scale up to commercialize the new technology and integrate this into the current manufacturing processes. Moves towards mass production of sodium-ion batteries are still in their infancy.
Diversification in battery chemistries will be key in the EV shift
Looking further ahead, we can expect more cars to be produced using sodium-ion batteries as manufacturing scales up, supply chains are formed, and technology evolves to improve the energy density.
We expect the lower cost, improved safety and supply chain advantages of sodium-ion batteries over lithium-ion batteries to continue to drive their technology towards mass production.
Although we don’t expect sodium-ion batteries to overtake lithium-ion ones in the short to medium term, sodium-based batteries have the potential to complement lithium-based ones, reduce dependence on a single material, and alleviate some of the pressure on lithium and battery material supply chains. This should all accelerate the green energy transition.
If sodium-ion batteries could take some market share from lithium-ion batteries, then this in turn could help to ease pressure on critical minerals supply, potentially at a much lower cost. Looking ahead, we believe it will be diversification in EV battery chemistries that will be key in any successful EV transition.
Can sodium-ion batteries replace lithium-ion ones?Having said all that, do I believe sodium ion batteries are about to replace lithium? Hell no. First of all, sodium ion production capacity is tiny compared to lithium ion. It is growing, but still has a long way to go to capture even a faction of the lithium ion market.
Second, it's energy density is still too low to be used in long range versions of EVs. At present, they are better suited for stationary storage applications like grid storage where energy density is less of an issue. Or the ultra low end EV market such as small commuter cars in China where customers are more price sensitive.
Third, the price of the battery components for lithium ion batteries such as cobalt, nickel, and lithium have been falling like a rock lately. Good news for lithium ion battery prices, bad news for it's competitors like sodium ion. This rapidly falling price erodes one of sodium ion's biggest advantages: low cost. Of course, commodity markets are fickle and they can start skyrocketing up again just as easily. At that time, the price advantage of sodium ion will start looking alot more attractive.
The oil barrel is half-full.