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Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 15 Apr 2024, 10:27:16

Like so much, this post could go in many different threads. But here is active so here it goes.

I picked up an interesting book about the UK during the Napoleonic Wars. It is a narrated collection of contemporary writing drawn from personal letters, diaries, conversations and from public speeches, sermons, broadsheets, and other periodicals.

What is very interesting is to see the parallels with today here within the USA. It anything the UK had much bigger problems. As always there was the Irish question. But there was also various polarities. Abolition was a hot topic that consumed much effort during an otherwise stressful era. Before the first peace they were sure Napoleon was going to invade, and soon. They were finding ways to bring men into the army and navy, but also into various home militia groups. They were actively planning to fight an action on home soil.

And there was a pole that was very anti-war, who insisted upon peace. The Uk had several agents in France working to negotiate a peace, to no avail. The agents were eventually ejected, until France approached for the first peace.

Times were har with so many men in uniform and so much disruption to trade. Smuggling was rampant, and probably necessary to keep the country going. Later even the Americans out an embargo on due English impressing men from American ships, which would lead to the War of 1812 (not there yet.). Land reform was changing rural life as the commons were enclosed upending traditional support chains. Food and necessities were scarce, and some years had horrible weather ruing entire crops. Pay was low, people poor, unions formed and flexed their mussel through sabotage and riots. The militia was necessary to restore order.

The military was corrupt with skimming going in at all levels. Military rank was bought not earned, which meant many officers had zero experience or training.

Religious tensions which aligned in various ways, there was no shortage of folks who saw Gods hand in every move and on every side of every issue.

At one point in time the PM had a debilitating stroke but the King refused to relieve him. In the meantime the 2 senior Cabinet ministers got into such a sever pissing match they resorted to dueling. Upon both missing they reloaded and tried again. Luckily neither was mortally wounded. SUPPOSEDLY, by the rules of gentry, a duel is supposed to satisfy all previous grievances that initiated the duel, while the slate clean so to speak. Kinda hard to see how that works.

And Napoleon is in ascendence near everywhere.

Looking at the amount of turmoil and strife the UK was experiencing it is very hard to imagine how they will eventually emerge alive, let alone victorious. The common folks and even gentry were far from sanguine about the future. And yet they did. The future is never clear.

We, I, see the world in turmoil and have grave doubts shout our leadership and future. By comparison though we live in stable and safe times. Our current level of agitation is much less.

So who knows, we may survive yet, perhaps even thrive.

Tis a thriller we watch when we view the news.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 15 Apr 2024, 20:39:39

NATO's a tool used for encirclement, or just a tool: let Russia in because of help over Afghanistan, or not because of Syria.

Encirclement extends to Asia:

"Forget an ‘Asian NATO’ — Pacific Allies Could Join the Real One"

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ew-zealand

with some members of the Global South wanting to be like Israel, and the War Machine egging them on:

"Zelenskyy wants Ukraine to be ‘a big Israel.’ Here’s a road map."

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/n ... -road-map/

The catch is that they need more like Biden to have that, who for Putin is "old school" and thus "predictable". In contrast, Trump will demand payment for help even as his house of cards crumbles.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Mon 15 Apr 2024, 21:52:06

It turns out that China has also had large amounts of land stolen from them by Russia - over 900,000 square kilometers! They may want to get it back!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amur_Annexation
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 15 Apr 2024, 23:40:25

The Amur thing was settled by negotiation years ago. As much as yall would love to break Russia and China apart, its just not going to happen. Xi has had the opportunity to screw Putin bad for a couple years now; he's proven nothing but reliable and trustworthy.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 16 Apr 2024, 03:30:14

yellowcanoe wrote:It turns out that China has also had large amounts of land stolen from them by Russia - over 900,000 square kilometers! They may want to get it back!


Russia may give it back, if they are asked. China has infuriated many countries, India, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan but my searches can up with nothing on a conflict of interests with Russia over land. Do you have some evidence there is a conflict over this centuries old land transfer? Is there one between Russia and the U.S. over the Aleutian islands? Or Alaska?

Border lands between China and Russia are quite stable and both nations have cross-border population movements to facilitate industry. I think you are grasping at straws here Ycanoe. I see no division between the two, they are like Canada and America.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 16 Apr 2024, 07:59:41

yellowcanoe wrote:It turns out that China has also had large amounts of land stolen from them by Russia - over 900,000 square kilometers! They may want to get it back!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amur_Annexation



Xi just issued new maps, with the name changed back from Russian to Chinese.

:lol:

Xi is in a world of hurt and will likely soon be facing internal unrest. I would not be surprised for him to do something to solidify public opinion. And Russia is a lot softer target than Taiwan. Not predicting, just watching.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 16 Apr 2024, 08:09:54

Newfie wrote:Xi is in a world of hurt and will likely soon be facing internal unrest. I would not be surprised for him to do something to solidify public opinion. And Russia is a lot softer target than Taiwan. Not predicting, just watching.

Internal unrests in China have a history to go awfuly wrong.
They can dwarf in terms of casualties even biggest wars known to the West.
It is enough to read about War of Three Kingdoms or quite recent (XIX century) Taiping Rebellion where casualties possibly equaled or exceeded those in WW II.
History of prophet Hong and his Taiping Rebellion is a reason why Chinese authorities absolutely HATE unlicensed religious activity and will go to any imaginable extend to crush it in its butt.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 16 Apr 2024, 08:22:26

Not to mention Mao. I have seen estimates as high as 60 millions for his escapades. You may be pointing to a reason for Mao’s actions.

Mao saw and understood the problems with cultural diversity within China, it being an amalgamation of competing cultures. He sought to give them, to enforce upon them, a new and unified cultural identity. And he needed to do it in his remaining life time. Thus the cultural revolution where he destroyed as much of the ties with the past as he could while subjugating people to mass brainwashing. And, he “gave” the populace a common traumatic experience, something all survivors experienced, a common history.

How successful was he? Is China now a unified culture or a Han dominated empire?

Does Xi seek to build cultural unity or to institutionalize Han dominance?

What tools will he use in either case?
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 16 Apr 2024, 12:44:42

Newfie wrote:Xi is in a world of hurt and will likely soon be facing internal unrest. I would not be surprised for him to do something to solidify public opinion. And Russia is a lot softer target than Taiwan. Not predicting, just watching.


India is a much softer target, and much more propagandized. If he needs something for public opinion, that little bit of rock they fight over in the mountains is perfect. If he needs something with more economic impact, its undoubtably the SCS/Philippines thing. Harder than India because of the US Navy potential interference but not something we'd exchange nukes over.

India though, definitely my pick if there has to be an "adventure".

Personally, I think there will be no adventure. Well fed, and relatively comfortable Chinese don't rock the boat, nor approve of adventures.

As to diversity, right now their propaganda organs are actually hyping up regional distinctiveness; all about fluff, like Regional foods, culture in general, traditional/antique dress. This goes a bit at odds with Han being pushed to go live everywhere and intermarry... It'll be decades before the trend results will be really well seen.

All this is why I see Xi as uninterested in "adventure" as well; his objective is to keep everyone fed and busy making money, while hanging politicians he can catch skimming the top, which is an activity that makes top headlines relatively frequently. And yeah, they execute for corruption.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 17 Apr 2024, 05:18:29

EnergyUnlimited wrote:History of prophet Hong and his Taiping Rebellion is a reason why Chinese authorities absolutely HATE unlicensed religious activity and will go to any imaginable extend to crush it in its butt.


Yes, for a so called civilized people they lose their heads at the drop of a hat and go on a rampage. That would be alright if they actually won! But all that happens is millions end up massacred.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 19 Apr 2024, 04:33:25

In Poland we have made compulsory bin segregation and color coding of refuse containers, to assist bin men and recycling companies.
Now people who don't like Ukraine (and many have reasons to do so because of events which have happened during WWII) have found original way to express their feelings:

Image

In the past these wheelies were left in rather chaotic fashion but now they are often found diligently tidied exactly in manner like on this photo, house, by house.
Authorities and media are a bit embarrassed, they don't know what to say so they say nothing.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 19 Apr 2024, 04:54:01

I don't get it EU?

Down here recycling was an abject failure, the plastic used to be shipped to china, but they don't want it so it goes in the landfill. Much of the glass too and the paper if it's in anyway contaminated. The whole recycling industry is BS with enormous amounts spend on duel bins, special transfer stations, and scored of people standing beside conveyor belts sorting aluminium cans from used nappies.

30 years ago a professor I knew did a study on it at a huge recycling plant in a southern state. He came back convinced it was all a waste of money, and in some cases, exacerbated the problem of plastic waste. All it did was give the people the impression something was being done while it allowed the big corporations, confectionery: chips drinks and candy, to go about business as usual selling their junk food in junk packaging. It sounded like a good idea 30 years ago but like ethanol based fuel it was all built on Lies.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 19 Apr 2024, 05:01:08

theluckycountry wrote:I don't get it EU?

You still don't?
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 19 Apr 2024, 10:39:33

Here is an article for EU and Lucky.

Enjoy.

https://brian-kean.medium.com/moscows-n ... effb1c70a7
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 19 Apr 2024, 10:46:54

theluckycountry wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:History of prophet Hong and his Taiping Rebellion is a reason why Chinese authorities absolutely HATE unlicensed religious activity and will go to any imaginable extend to crush it in its butt.


Yes, for a so called civilized people they lose their heads at the drop of a hat and go on a rampage. That would be alright if they actually won! But all that happens is millions end up massacred.


Not trying to make a point, too long ago for that.

Last year I read an article about historic Civil War in China, before the 1600's. Older yet I think.

Anyway it cataloged the fights. One of the later campaigns went on for like 2 generation and killed about 2/3 of the ENTIRE population.

It was by far the most deadly war I had ever hear of on a percentage basis. Quote shocking. Who was left? Old, babies, young women?

How does a culture even recover from that?
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 19 Apr 2024, 13:33:00

Newfie wrote:
Last year I read an article about historic Civil War in China... One of the later campaigns went on for like 2 generation and killed about 2/3 of the ENTIRE population... How does a culture even recover from that?


With abundant food and lots of sex I assume. It's why I laugh at these Western prognostications about how China's population will collapse just because it's in decline at the moment. They dig up all these long winded assumptions based on a daisy-chain of current events with no regard to possible changes in culture in the future. China really is a basket case ruled by soulless dictators, but it always has been and always comes back. All of the old empires have come and gone, now they are ghosts of their former selves. Not China though, It's a regional power house yet again.

Perhaps its secret is it never went out into the world to build a true global Empire like the Romans or the Spanish or the British. But it never did, and I doubt it will now for the same reasons. What are those reasons? I think, like Russia, they know they have all they need within their borders so why go to the expense of trying to militarize half the planet. All those old empires, right up to Germany and Japan had one thing in common. Small territories with limited resources for their ambitions. But But But, China needs... China can change it's ambitions at the drop of a hat and reduce its need for oil and coal and iron ore just like that [snap fingers/]

The West can't do that because it's driven by the Capitalist system where NO ONE is in control, where there is just a vast number of competing interests all wanting to enrich themselves, to empower themselves. Russia did a transition overnight [snap/] From the USSR to a compact resource rich core. Communism? Dreadful and inefficient! But a blend of authoritarian rule and the machinations of capitalism? I believe Russia is still ruled by a relaxed communist core, like Vietnam. A total dictatorship practicing capitalist principles but not too concerned with Marxist dogma now. What was that dogma used for? Control and exploitation, but it was inefficient because the people weren't 100% behind it. You don't need it maintain control, all you need is control of the voting, which Putin always has lol,lol. Putin is a dictator!!! No, Putin is a figurehead, ruthless sure, but a seemingly mild mannered educated man and behind him is a small inner circle politburo I'm sure. Japan? A bastion of democracy, or a capitalist nation ruled by the old feudal warlord families that led us into WWII in the pacific? It's a rabbit-hole that one. Follow the money.

Anyway, that's just my analysis.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 19 Apr 2024, 15:30:14

@Newfie,
There are far more attractive Russian women than the one your link shows and as Mr Putin have said on one occasion,
Mr Putin wrote:Russian women are the best prostitutes on entire world.

I bet he knows what he is talking about, though I am completely skewed towards Asian women and these days I do not find White women attractive, even if many are beautiful.
Feminism did the trick, for me it is now irreversible, cannot help.

In Poland Russians are unpopular in the sense that we don't like what their government does but Russians as people are liked and respected here and stand much higher than Ukrainians do though we like to joke that they are backward in many aspects of life.
Russian girlfriend is something to be proud of and it is in good tone between richer people to have one but Ukrainian girlfriend is a bit of a shame and people who got one are seen as losers.

A lot of that is related to genocide Ukrainians committed in Poland during WW II.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 19 Apr 2024, 21:33:10

Newfie wrote:Here is an article for EU and Lucky.

Enjoy.


You have to sign up, email or an octopus account? Sorry wont be reading that one. Interesting pic though, a down and out's sexual fantasy party? I went to one here in the 1970's, lame! I'm not into theme parties.
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 19 Apr 2024, 21:53:32

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:I don't get it EU?

You still don't?


Ok, now I get it :lol:

I read an article yesterday about how zellinskee is pissed OFF the US and everyone else came to Israel's aid with their anti-missile defenses when the Iranians attacked. It was a third page story, he's out of the look now! And he still doesn't get it, the purpose of the war in the ukraine is the genocide of the ukrainian peoples (obviously) but Israel is a sacred cow.

Why Jordan, and maybe even Saudi Arabia, helped defend Israel
Israeli defences shoot down Iranian missiles over central Israel on Saturday. Jordan was among the countries that helped defend Israel during the attack — shooting down Iranian drones as they flew overhead. Jordan also reportedly allowed Israeli jets into its airspace.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/israel-ir ... -1.7176154

This fits with the division in islam between shia sunni, The shia are the violent ones, Shia Muslims are in the majority in Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Azerbaijan... The great majority of the world's more than 1.5 billion Muslims are Sunnis - estimates suggest the figure is somewhere between 85% and 90%. In the Middle East, Sunnis make up 90% or more of the populations of Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

I wish the religious bent of these muslim terrorist attackers in the West were told in the news stories. I might do a little digging...
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Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 20

Unread postby careinke » Sat 20 Apr 2024, 18:22:53

theluckycountry wrote:This fits with the division in islam between shia sunni, The shia are the violent ones, Shia Muslims are in the majority in Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Azerbaijan... The great majority of the world's more than 1.5 billion Muslims are Sunnis - estimates suggest the figure is somewhere between 85% and 90%. In the Middle East, Sunnis make up 90% or more of the populations of Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

I wish the religious bent of these muslim terrorist attackers in the West were told in the news stories. I might do a little digging...


Yea right, those nonviolent Sunnis include Bin Laden, Sadam Hussain, all Wahhabi's (a Suni Sect), and most of the PLO. 8O

Granted, the Shia have become a lot more restrictive/oppressive over the decades. Shia's were mostly traders and used to be more tolerant of outsiders than now. My first tour in KSA was on the Persian Gulf (Arabian Sea) around 1977. Most of the area was Shia. At that time, women did not have to wear head scarfs or cover all exposed skin, you could go to a theater and watch a movie. But none of that was allowed in Sunni controlled areas of the Kingdom.

Trade brings peace, promotes tolerance of others beliefs and discourages war.

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